wxman57 wrote:vaffie wrote:Emmett_Brown wrote:Good point... very early in the game, but the GFDL seems to suggest that the next trough will miss the storm, and send it west...
Of course, this is way early, and a big swing from this morning, so it could easily swing back...
I agree that it could swing back, but I would put the chance of a significant rightward swing at less than 50%, because the models now have a much better handle than they did due to the recon data that's come in--that is what has probably affected it's short-term motion forecast and thus its longterm motion forecast is also affected, and we're further ahead in time now, and secondly, the motion has already been faster and less "drifting" than it was previously due to the northward jog and the greater proximity to the high that is pushing it west. The farther west it ends up, the faster it's westward component will be--because the high is centered over the western Gulf and the front will be over the eastern Gulf--so it could escape from the front and move quickly westward So, on the contrary, I expect the GFS to move westward as well, if it becomes clear that the front will miss it--besides, the GFS often has a bias towards fronts being stronger and further south than they actually end up being and thus turning storms north and east in the long run, whereas the GFDL, which is designed for forecasting hurricane motion, is less biased. I still think that the west Florida people should pay attention because even if it goes west, it could still turn eastnortheast or northeast by a front--but for it to be pulled eastnortheast by a front would create a lot of shear and weakening, so landfall probabilities have shifted in my opinion for the time being to "Pensacola to Galveston". I'm leaning more towards Pensacola because of the time of the year we're in and because the fronts, though not strong, are coming through fairly regularly, but even places like Galveston and Lake Charles should pay attention, especially if it moves faster and more westward than predicted--that would allow it to just miss the first front, and then move west or northwest unusually fast with the building high to its north just in time to start heading north with the coming of the second front--it's a long shot, but the tropics don't always do what you think they will. I'm even surprised I'm watching it as a threat to my area, but experience tells me to expect the unexpected.
Might check the GFS 500 mb prog for 168 hours. See the deep trof across the mid Gulf coast and strong W-NW flow moving across the northern Gulf? That would not allow a northward movement toward Pensacola. It signals a sharp NE turn should the storm enter the Gulf late this week.
<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_168s.gif">
however, who is to say that will be there at that time...just yesterday it was looking good for a south florida hit, now the models shifted way west....things will change a lot between now and then, so i dont agree with the statement it will not turn and hit p'cola...i know you will say im "-removed-" but i have said many time i believe a tampa hit at this time, but i believe the panhandle needs to watch this unfolding situation very closely, dont you agree?
