otowntiger wrote:wxman57 wrote:Surface pressures are already quite low in the western Caribbean (1007-1009mb). Lowest pressure is north of Honduras/east of Belize. Banding is starting to show up on satellite imagery, and it's not Matthew's circulation. I'd say there's plenty there to initiate an invest. Development is looking likely, probably in 48-72 hrs. Northward track toward Florida and possibly into or along the East U.S. Coast seems like a good bet.
And I don't think this will be the last of the storms forming there. Low pressures will continue across the region. This may be the 2nd of 3 or 4 storms that form there over the next 2 weeks. Time for Florida's hurricane season.
Thanks for posting your insight on this thread wxman57 and this board in general as always. One question: do you have a feel for what strength of this system will be when (or if) it moves toward Florida?
I don't know about intensity. Certainly could become a hurricane. We don't know how much land interaction there will be (Cuba/FL). I'd say better than not chance of a hurricane, though. Major hurricane? Maybe. Depends on how long it sits over the NW Caribbean before moving out.
And as for what I would define as "south Florida", basically the southern half of the FL peninsula. Maybe from Tampa south. North Florida would be the panhandle and extreme northern peninsula (at least to me).
Oh, and by the way, the PREDICT team didn't say this could be the "Big One". They said that the European model was predicting it to be the big one at the time. Just a statement of what the Euro was predicting, nothing more.
Only a guess, nothing official of course, 20% at 2 PM and 96L around 2:30 PM.
