2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous

Hi hurricaneman, well we will have to see if that pattern persists and if the Atlantic actually spits out hurricanes not just waves.

[TheStormExpert]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous

It’s hard to not season cancel with the Atlantic being completely unfavorable for tropical development at the moment. Also the fact that so far each of the three storms were either weak and short-lived, didn’t maintain peak intensity for longer than a day tops or were barely a hurricane.

[tolakram]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous

It’s hard to not season cancel with the Atlantic being completely unfavorable for tropical development at the moment. Also the fact that so far each of the three storms were either weak and short-lived, didn’t maintain peak intensity for longer than a day tops or were barely a hurricane.

Right, but what science is behind this? Saying the same thing over and over is not a conversation, and this goes for more than just you. Science is interesting, observations are interesting, cancelling the season is not interesting.

[Chris90]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous

It’s hard to not season cancel with the Atlantic being completely unfavorable for tropical development at the moment. Also the fact that so far each of the three storms were either weak and short-lived, didn’t maintain peak intensity for longer than a day tops or were barely a hurricane.

I don't think the fact the first 3 cyclones of the year were weak and short-lived counts for much, especially not when they've occurred in these first 10 weeks of the season. June through the first half of August are not known for producing long-lived major ACE generators. To me that fact really has no bearing on the rest of the season, especially since we're not even to the climatological peak yet. If we were talking about 3 storms that had occurred between August 20th - September 20th, I think this would be much more valid, then it would be a much bigger red flag. I think at this point all we can do is watch how things evolve and any trends in the models. The ENSO state continues to decay slowly, trending cooler. I think it's partly why things are so slow to improve in the Atlantic. If the Nino had decayed faster, I think conditions would be better in the Atlantic currently.
I'm definitely feeling a lot less confident in my 16/9/5 numbers because I thought the Atlantic was going to have a lot more time, but I do still think it'll have an active spike, I just think this will be a heavily backloaded season, 2016-esque in that regard.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

[Hurricaneman]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

I think the evidence will come with the MJO

[toad strangler]

For those canceling the season, we are currently in mjo phase 5 which is highly unfavorable with sinking air in the basin but by the 25th or so it seems the GFS goes to phase 2 while the Euro goes to phases 1 and 2 which would mean we could have more activity and wouldn’t be surprised if we have 5 or more named storms in September and with the predicted 500mb pattern it could be quite dangerous

It’s hard to not season cancel with the Atlantic being completely unfavorable for tropical development at the moment. Also the fact that so far each of the three storms were either weak and short-lived, didn’t maintain peak intensity for longer than a day tops or were barely a hurricane.

Right, but what science is behind this? Saying the same thing over and over is not a conversation, and this goes for more than just you. Science is interesting, observations are interesting, cancelling the season is not interesting.

It’s amateurish noise and bush league to talk about canceling a tropical season in mid August. As if models are hard wired into the atmosphere and infallible. It’s a shame you guys have to moderate this kind of garbage.

[Hammy]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

[crownweather]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

[DioBrando]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

https://i.imgur.com/2LJftVC.png

Does it show the paths these storms take?

[crownweather]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

Regarding the CFS model - I noticed that it keeps spitting out storms right into late October and early November.

[Bhuggs]

Is there any signs of the Atlantic waking up? So far it seems like the Atlantic is shut down and models in the long range are still not showing conditions getting much better. Evidence of the flip of the switch?

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

https://i.imgur.com/2LJftVC.png

Could you give a brief explanation on how to read this graph? This is a new one for me and I’m not sure I’m reading it correctly

[crownweather]

CFS consistency. It's been showing little to nothing in August for weeks (and even barely developing 96L even when the shorter-term models were more bullish) but likewise has been showing that at some point between August 29 and September 5 (the date bounces around run to run) we'll get a burst of activity similar to last year, an similar to what happened between late August/early September in some previous seasons.

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

https://i.imgur.com/2LJftVC.png

Could you give a brief explanation on how to read this graph? This is a new one for me and I’m not sure I’m reading it correctly

Basically the blue-green color is lower than average barometric pressures and the orange colors are higher than average barometric pressures. So, if you concentrate on the blue-green colors you will see swaths that move from right to left as you move down the scale. This means a certain system with low pressure is moving from east to west somewhere in between 10 North Latitude and 25 North Latitude. Given the time of year, it's safe to bet that this is a tropical cyclone.

[Bhuggs]

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

https://i.imgur.com/2LJftVC.png

Could you give a brief explanation on how to read this graph? This is a new one for me and I’m not sure I’m reading it correctly

Basically the blue-green color is lower than average barometric pressures and the orange colors are higher than average barometric pressures. So, if you concentrate on the blue-green colors you will see swaths that move from right to left as you move down the scale. This means a certain system with low pressure is moving from east to west somewhere in between 10 North Latitude and 25 North Latitude. Given the time of year, it's safe to bet that this is a tropical cyclone.

Thank you for the explanation!

[DioBrando]

Also, the 45 day EPS ensemble model is hinting at a burst of activity w/ up to 4 active storms at once, including a long track storm around mid-September. Also has a system over the eastern and central Atlantic end of this month.

https://i.imgur.com/2LJftVC.png

Could you give a brief explanation on how to read this graph? This is a new one for me and I’m not sure I’m reading it correctly

Basically the blue-green color is lower than average barometric pressures and the orange colors are higher than average barometric pressures. So, if you concentrate on the blue-green colors you will see swaths that move from right to left as you move down the scale. This means a certain system with low pressure is moving from east to west somewhere in between 10 North Latitude and 25 North Latitude. Given the time of year, it's safe to bet that this is a tropical cyclone.

Thank you! That long tracker... it's that big blue blob from 30W to 0W at the very bottom if I'm correct, which looks to be... Humberto or something along those lines??

[CyclonicFury]

Still think it's going to be hard to go all of August without a TC formation in the Atlantic. Regardless, I'm expecting the bulk of the activity will occur in September and October.

[USTropics]

Looking at possible analogues for this year, I first sorted by ONI values for MJJ from 1950-present using ERSST v4 data (ONI values here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing). Filtering by a deviation of +- 0.2 (included 2017 even though it has a -0.3 deviation due to consistent 0.4 values from MAM/AMJ), that leaves us with this:



This could be further filtered by using SST anomalies from MJJ with ERSST v4 data again, below is the complete set from ONI analogues for global SSTA (resolution is a bit low before ~1980, but an overall picture can be taken):


The 6 most similar SSTAs (by no means mirror matches, but the closest) globally to 2019 MJJ leaves us with 1958, 1969, 1995, 2004, 2012, 2017:




Filtering tropical cyclones for 1958, 1969, 1995, 2004, 2012 and 2017 from August 15th-end of season:

1958 (8/6/2)


1969 (15/9/3)


1995 (13/8/4)


2004 (11/6/4)


2012 (8/6/2)


2017 (10/7/6)

[CyclonicFury]

If you look at a longer range chart of the AMO, there are often pockets of cool years within an overall warm trend. For example, there was a pronounced 2-3 year dip into negative values in the late 1940s during the last positive AMO. It returned to positive until the 1960s, before finally flipping to negative, and staying mostly negative until the mid 1990's. So, we could easily see a return to the positive AMO before it finally ends in another decade or so. Or, this could indeed be the end of the recent positive AMO... But if so, that would make the recent positive AMO shorter than the previous cycle by about a decade. Also, 2017 had an ACE of 225, which is not characteristic of cold AMO (as CyclonicFury pointed out)

Klotzbach & I have been debating the AMO status (still warm or transitioning to cool) for the past 6 years. I was on the side of the recent cooling being only temporary. Phil wasn't so sure - more seasons were needed to confirm. We've come to an agreement that there was a shift in 2013 to a cool AMO. There are active periods even in cool AMO cycles, particularly during the transition years. It would be a relatively short warm AMO, but we've never seen such a long period of cool AMO during the previous warm cycles. During a cool cycle, there isn't necessarily a drop-off in numbers, but there is a decline in stronger hurricanes. We saw that last season, with only 2 majors forming. Will that continue? I think it will this year.

FWIW, 2016 had four major hurricanes, and 2017 had six, both more than any season from the last cool AMO cycle (1970-94). 2018 managed eight hurricanes, and Helene and Oscar fell just short of major status. I'm just not convinced we are in a -AMO cycle yet. The Atlantic looks more +AMO than -AMO right now, but the warmest anomalies are shifted north of where they are during a typical +AMO.

I think Klotzbach thinking the active era is over has been why his forecasts have busted too low the past four years.

[Monsoonjr99]

I find the unusually strong WAM in recent years intriguing. I've seen previous posts here about how the very amplified and northward-displaced WAM is actually hindering activity for the moment due to broader waves and SAL. The strong WAM also seems to have spurred on unusual early and late season MDR activity like Bret, Beryl, and Nadine. I'm wondering that, if the trend of a strong and northward-displaced WAM continues, could the Atlantic MDR season become duel-peaked similarly to the NIO? More early-season MDR storms like Bret and Beryl, SAL issues in August from the WAM being too far north, and the main peak being displaced later in the season with more October activity? This is just speculation keep in mind.

[NDG]

If you look at a longer range chart of the AMO, there are often pockets of cool years within an overall warm trend. For example, there was a pronounced 2-3 year dip into negative values in the late 1940s during the last positive AMO. It returned to positive until the 1960s, before finally flipping to negative, and staying mostly negative until the mid 1990's. So, we could easily see a return to the positive AMO before it finally ends in another decade or so. Or, this could indeed be the end of the recent positive AMO... But if so, that would make the recent positive AMO shorter than the previous cycle by about a decade. Also, 2017 had an ACE of 225, which is not characteristic of cold AMO (as CyclonicFury pointed out)

Klotzbach & I have been debating the AMO status (still warm or transitioning to cool) for the past 6 years. I was on the side of the recent cooling being only temporary. Phil wasn't so sure - more seasons were needed to confirm. We've come to an agreement that there was a shift in 2013 to a cool AMO. There are active periods even in cool AMO cycles, particularly during the transition years. It would be a relatively short warm AMO, but we've never seen such a long period of cool AMO during the previous warm cycles. During a cool cycle, there isn't necessarily a drop-off in numbers, but there is a decline in stronger hurricanes. We saw that last season, with only 2 majors forming. Will that continue? I think it will this year.

FWIW, 2016 had four major hurricanes, and 2017 had six, both more than any season from the last cool AMO cycle (1970-94). 2018 managed eight hurricanes, and Helene and Oscar fell just short of major status. I'm just not convinced we are in a -AMO cycle yet. The Atlantic looks more +AMO than -AMO right now, but the warmest anomalies are shifted north of where they are during a typical +AMO.

I think Klotzbach thinking the active era is over has been why his forecasts have busted too low the past four years.

Bingo!