NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[PTrackerLA]

Thank you for your input wxman...feeling the same way can't believe this is not an invest with the potential threat to gulf states.

[Houstonia]

Jeff Lindner (Harris County Flood Control District) in Houston doesn't seem too excited about it:

Tropics:

Elongated surface trough extends from the Bahamas across Cuba to the southern Gulf of Mexico. A very broad and weak surface low pressure system has formed on this trough axis over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico near/just NE of the northern coast of the Yucatan. I cannot find any surface observation with any valid west wind, so I do not think the system is closed off on its southern side and continues to exhibit a sharp trough axis. There was a NW wind report from a ship in the Yucatan Channel, but this observation seems suspect and does not match with the overall broad circulation. The global forecast models continue to have their problems with this system as to where it may develop and then track. The operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF take the system toward the western coast of FL around the middle part of next week. But both appear to be deepening the system too much. The CMC takes the system toward the NW Gulf also likely too strong. With ridging developing over TX, one would expect the downstream trough on the eastern side of the ridge over the SE US to induce a general NE to ENE steering pattern, and while this appears likely the steering will be weak allowing the system to remain in the Gulf for several days. Much of this depends on exactly where the surface low becomes defined over the next 48 hours. NHC currently gives the system a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

[Ptarmigan]

Better issue the invest before it reaches TS strength. Low forming just north of Yucatan. Banding east of low. SW winds at Cancun. Well on its way to developing. I'd give it about a 99.999% chance of being Debby within 48 hrs.

Florida or Texas who gets Debbie

It is going to depend on how soon it develops. The sooner it develops, the more likely it may hit Florida as tropical storms and hurricanes are more influenced by upper air patterns. That is one reason why many Cape Verde storms end up as fish storms due to upper air steering. Every now and than, a Cape Verde Storm can hit Caribbean and America.

[stormandan28]

The Fim model


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[northjaxpro]

Better issue the invest before it reaches TS strength. Low forming just north of Yucatan. Banding east of low. SW winds at Cancun. Well on its way to developing. I'd give it about a 99.999% chance of being Debby within 48 hrs.

Florida or Texas who gets Debbie

That's the $$$$$ question isn't it? At this point, I would say everyone along the Gulf coast should be on the alert, plain and simple. We just have to monitor the models and hope they reach a consensus within the next couple of days as to where this system makes landfall.

Satellite imagery is definitely showing convection is trying to get pulled into the vort just off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. If this trend continues, maybe we all finally see this entity get tagged as an invest and see how the models fare going forward.

[MGC]

I'm still thinking the low over the Yucatan will be the one to develop,,,,I would expect it to become an invest once it moves more over the gulf. Could be a named system by the weekend.......MGC

[wxman57]

East-West, don't know yet. Stronger system might get picked up by the approaching trof Sunday and carried toward northern FL. Weaker system (or weaker trof) means it may wait for the ridge to build behind the trof, pushing it west.

[Weatherfreak000]

The issue here is constant: Debby is forecasted by our best models to be influenced by a trough, Ike was proof the argument "It just doesn't happen this time of year" doesn't exist. It doesn't matter what models like NAM,CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS show when GFS and EURO have been consistent for two days...


As soon as this gets invest tagged if you live almost anywhere along the West Coast of FL it'll be time to start watching and perhaps planning for anywhere from a TD to a 970 mb storm.

[WeatherGuesser]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-2 ... coast.html

Gasoline advanced from a six-month low on concern that a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening U.S. Gulf Coast refinery operations.

Futures rose as the National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 30 percent chance of a tropical weather system becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

[stormandan28]

I agree the Euro seems to be the favorite model to alot of the people that post on this board the last couple of runs by the euro and gfs are mostly in agreement with movement just not the intensity.

[Stormcenter]

Oil companies always looking for an excuse to jack up the prices.....how sad.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-21/gasoline-rises-on-potential-for-tropical-storm-in-gulf-coast.html

Gasoline advanced from a six-month low on concern that a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening U.S. Gulf Coast refinery operations.

Futures rose as the National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 30 percent chance of a tropical weather system becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

[northjaxpro]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-21/gasoline-rises-on-potential-for-tropical-storm-in-gulf-coast.html

Gasoline advanced from a six-month low on concern that a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening U.S. Gulf Coast refinery operations.

Futures rose as the National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 30 percent chance of a tropical weather system becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Well, you knew gas prices wouldn't stay at the level they are currently anyway. A potential tropical cyclone in the GOM just gives them the ultimate component to expedite the rise in costs.

[wxman57]

Let's stay on topic, people.

[tolakram]

The euro is respected for a very good reason. Review the NHC model verification pages and look at the graphs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

Graph: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/fi ... rlymdl.gif

See the light blue dot? That's the euro.

[vaffie]

Nearest ship report (100 miles southeast of the tip of the Yucatan) now up to 21 knots sustained winds. Previous strongest report was 19 knots early this morning.

[cycloneye]

The 12z Surface Analysis map.



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[Weatherfreak000]

The euro is respected for a very good reason. Review the NHC model verification pages and look at the graphs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

Graph: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/fi ... rlymdl.gif

See the light blue dot? That's the euro.

Great graphic, and it also shows how inconsistent models like UKMET are.....hence why pros follow the TVCN (The orange square with the cross)

[tolakram]

Great graphic, and it also shows how inconsistent models like UKMET are.....hence why pros follow the TVCN (The orange square with the cross)

TVCN = Average of at least 2 of GFDI, UKMI, NGPI, GFSI, EMXI and GFNI

They would have been better off, at least in the 48 hour range, following the Euro exactly.

Apologies for drifting off topic.

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interfence from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.

[SFLcane]

Still quite disorganized but as tpc suggest windshear may slacken of a bit which may allow for some development this weekend. You can see the developing circulation perfectly in this link.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Gulf_Mexico