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Extratropical94 wrote:The report says [...]Gustav became the 2002 season's first hurricane just before 1200 UTC[...]
So we have 39 hours left.
Timer
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/ge ... +Hurricane
Stormcenter wrote:This is from the NWS in New Orleans.....I'm really starting to doubt we along the Gulf Coast will have any "serious" issues to deal with from the tropics this season. Everyday that goes by now that we are headed toward mid Sept. adds to the odds against it IMO.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2013
.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A CANADIAN FRONT TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ON DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IMPETUS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH WITH A BACK-DOOR ORIENTATION
SATURDAY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DEVOID OF TOO MUCH CONVECTION BUT
MAY ENHANCE THE FEW STORMS A BIT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
FRONTAL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SATUDAY THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TELECONNECTIONS WOULD STRONGLY
FAVOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS NOTION WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
DEVELOPMENT TRACKS WOULD FAVOR A WESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO...AS
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS HAVE DONE THIS SEASON ALREADY. CURRENT
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD HAVE TO ABATE ACROSS THE LOWER GULF
BEFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE...BUT SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN
TIME. 24/RR
Highs will not "dominate" in September. This isn't June or July along the western Gulf Coast..gif){kind=small}
ConvergenceZone wrote:I think that Humberto will be the 1st hurricane. After that, there's no disturbances in sight, but I'm thinking that October will produce 1 more hurricane before the season slowly comes to a close....
Disclaimer: These are my personal opinions from watching the tropics for many years and should no way be misconstrued as a professional opinion.
lester wrote:Hurricane_Luis wrote:Countdown to record: 1 day 10 hours 15 minutes 10 seconds (As of 07:43 UTC 10/9/13)
Humberto at 55 kts according to best track so it looks like no new record.
Will second half be as tame as first? Don’t count on it
Mark Sudduth | September 9, 2013
The first half of this year’s hurricane season has been nothing like what most people expected. So far, as of this posting, there have been zero hurricanes in the Atlantic. While that is likely to change within the next day or so, it is still remarkable to go this long in to the season with no hurricanes forming anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.
We can get in to why the season has been so slow later, there will be plenty of time for reflection once all is said and done. For now, let’s look at what lies ahead as I think some important signals are out there, coupled with history, that cannot be ignored.
First, as I mentioned, it looks like Humberto will become the season’s first hurricane by some time tomorrow. This will keep the record latest date intact by about a day. This will bring the season totals to eight named storms and one hurricane – two hurricanes short of where we would be in a typical season. We are also about a week behind on seeing the season’s first major hurricane – one of category 3, 4 or 5. There is a chance that Humberto could become a major hurricane though it may be tough, we’ll see.
Sea surface temps running above average across much of Atlantic Basin
Sea surface temps running above average across much of Atlantic Basin
A big factor going forward will be sea surface temps across the Atlantic Basin. Taking a look at today’s anomalies or departures from normal, we can see that there is a lot of warm water compared to average for this time of year. It is also important to note that this water is undisturbed by previous tropical cyclones. A considerable amount of upper ocean heat content lies in wait for something to come along and tap in to it. Obviously, warm water alone is not enough, but if conditions in the atmosphere are favorable, this added warmth can be the fuel for powerful hurricanes.
The other consideration is climatology. As we move through September, there is a natural shift in development areas back to the western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. This concerns me a little because this region does not seem to have the dry air issues that the central and eastern Atlantic have had all season long. Need proof? Look at Fernand and TD8 recently. Both went from tropical waves to quickly intensifying systems in short order. I believe that both would have become hurricanes had they not run out of water. The pattern will favor the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the coming weeks and this fits in with what we would normally look for this time of year.
Tracks of late September/October hurricanes from 2005, 2002, 1999, 1998 and 1989
Tracks of late September/October hurricanes from 2005, 2002, 1999, 1998 and 1989
Lastly, we need only to look in to the past as a guide to tell us that it’s not over until it’s over. We’ve seen some late season hurricanes come along that were very unpleasant. Wilma in late October of 2005 is part of a long list of such events. Rita was late September of that season. Hugo was also closer to the end of the month in 1989 as was Georges in 1998.
Do not mistake what I am saying for trying to keep interest up when there may be nothing to worry about at all. Believe me, if I saw that the season was truly as close to being “over” as could be, I would say so. We’ve seen years like that – most recently 2009. But even the really slow seasons have their Andrew once in a great while. I just don’t see any evidence to suggest that the next six weeks will be as quiet as the first part of the season was.
Another thing to consider – global tropical cyclone activity has been way down in recent weeks. That is changing right now with a super-typhoon forecast to develop in the west Pacific and of course Humberto strengthening in the Atlantic. What ever this lull was, it looks like it is about to end. The Atlantic Basin is primed for activity now, as it should be this time of year. I just don’t want people to ignore things and let their guard down. It would be incredible to get through this season without a major impact from a hurricane but do not count on that happening based solely on the first half of the season.
Maybe it’s like someone simply forgot to pre-heat the oven but now that’s it’s ready, baking can commence.
As for Humberto and the rest of the tropics? Well, we need not worry too much about Humberto as steering patterns suggest it will remain way out in the eastern Atlantic, roaming around for a few days at least.
We do need to monitor the southwest Gulf of Mexico once again for potential development there later this week. As I said, that general region has been quite the hot spot this season and pressures remain low in the area. We could see some activity there in the coming days which will mean more rain and unsettled weather for parts of the Gulf and Mexico.
The east Pacific is quiet but watch for quite the typhoon to develop farther to the west as activity begins to ramp up again globally.
I’ll have more here late this afternoon or early evening on Humberto.
M. Sudduth 11:30 am ET Sept 9
cycloneye wrote:The heart of the season has arrived. But will the second half be loaded with activity?
Hurricane_Luis wrote:Countdown to record: 17 hours 9 minutes 25 seconds (As of 15:48 UTC 10/9/13)
Its gonna be really close, Humberto is a 65 mph TS, About 10 mph from hurricane strength.
Ntxw wrote:Well folks we may or may not beat 2002 officially (officially sometime tomorrow morning) but with the latest Humberto advisory still a TS 2013 will accompany 2002 as latest date (Sept 11) for first hurricane.
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