2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Siker]

Looks like every GFS ensemble develops this now (might actually be 19/20, not sure).

[SoupBone]

such consistency in track amazes me.

I am starting to get on board!

This will be a TX and Mexico system btw.

Sarcasm?

[stormreader]

such consistency in track amazes me.

I am starting to get on board!

This will be a TX and Mexico system btw.

Wouldn't be so sure. Someone mentioned the windshield wiper effect. As stated too, east of the Miss River probably less likely. But I would still especially include the SW La area until further notice. If there is a storm....Texas coast most likely on latest runs, but just too early.

[ROCK]

Seems at least a mention by the NHC would make sense out of respect for the GFS showing possible development near the Yucatan within 5 days.

Yeah I can see some mention soon. Wayyy too many models are sniffing now..

[South Texas Storms]

Past few runs of the FV3 GFS look pretty similar to the 12z Euro. Weak low into the TX/MX border area.

[ROCK]

Think I posted on this thread that the BOC and MX are pretty high odds in June. Wouldn’t rule out LA at all thou...the steering collapses as it approaches land and it sits there for awhile per GFS..

[SoupBone]

Past few runs of the FV3 GFS look pretty similar to the 12z Euro. Weak low into the TX/MX border area.

And this is a huge flip from the Florida, Central Gulf Coast hits that it's been showing for a week. It's been incredibly inconsistent outside of genesis and outright crazy with intensity (Cat 2-3 into Louisiana). I guess I'm just one of these hardheaded guys that can't take it serious.

[TheStormExpert]

With the Texas death ridge well established a track over the Yucatán into the BoC then Mexico or extreme South Texas is probably the most likely bet at the moment. But if I remember correctly that is what originally many were expecting Harvey to do before it moved more north in the Western Gulf and into SE Texas.

[Kazmit]

With the Texas death ridge well established a track over the Yucatán into the BoC then Mexico or extreme South Texas is probably the most likely bet at the moment. But if I remember correctly that is what originally many were expecting Harvey to do before it moved more north in the Western Gulf and into SE Texas.

Harvey was in late August though. But I do get what you're saying- these storms can be hard to predict.

[TheStormExpert]

With the Texas death ridge well established a track over the Yucatán into the BoC then Mexico or extreme South Texas is probably the most likely bet at the moment. But if I remember correctly that is what originally many were expecting Harvey to do before it moved more north in the Western Gulf and into SE Texas.

Harvey was in late August though. But I do get what you're saying- these storms can be hard to predict.

Yes which is why a hurricane (let alone a major) is unlikely.

[srainhoutx]

With the Texas death ridge well established a track over the Yucatán into the BoC then Mexico or extreme South Texas is probably the most likely bet at the moment. But if I remember correctly that is what originally many were expecting Harvey to do before it moved more north in the Western Gulf and into SE Texas.

Not so sure about that where the Mexico Heat Ridge will end up, but with EPAC Bud and a general weakness established over Eastern Texas today and later this coming week, rainfall chances are increasing.

[NDG]

With the Texas death ridge well established a track over the Yucatán into the BoC then Mexico or extreme South Texas is probably the most likely bet at the moment. But if I remember correctly that is what originally many were expecting Harvey to do before it moved more north in the Western Gulf and into SE Texas.

If the Atlantic ridge moving in from the east is strong enough it could push the TX death ridge west or north.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing a growing consensus (minus the operational GFS) of a weaker system tracking toward northern Mexico and southern Texas next weekend. Some of the energy could come from that tropical wave east of the Caribbean around 48W. I wanted to examine the 12Z ECMWF upper-level pattern for next Sunday so I plotted the 200mb heights every 10 meters and put in some wind arrows (top image below). Weak upper low is over south TX next Sunday. Lower image is a surface map (every .5 millibar) with 24hr precip. Moisture flowing into Texas next Sunday. New GFS is similar. Canadian has a similar pattern, too, but it develops a TS like it does with every system in the tropics.

Could be we'll see moisture from the wave currently around 48W move into the west Caribbean late this coming week then track NW toward south Texas next weekend. Maybe just some rain for Texas. Hopefully, model agreement will improve in a few days.

[Haris]

NHC giving a clue LOL

[SoupBone]

I'm seeing a growing consensus (minus the operational GFS) of a weaker system tracking toward northern Mexico and southern Texas next weekend. Some of the energy could come from that tropical wave east of the Caribbean around 48W. I wanted to examine the 12Z ECMWF upper-level pattern for next Sunday so I plotted the 200mb heights every 10 meters and put in some wind arrows (top image below). Weak upper low is over south TX next Sunday. Lower image is a surface map (every .5 millibar) with 24hr precip. Moisture flowing into Texas next Sunday. New GFS is similar. Canadian has a similar pattern, too, but it develops a TS like it does with every system in the tropics.

Could be we'll see moisture from the wave currently around 48W move into the west Caribbean late this coming week then track NW toward south Texas next weekend. Maybe just some rain for Texas. Hopefully, model agreement will improve in a few days.

]

Now I'm thoroughly confused.

Would this be a different system than the GFS is showing? Any thoughts on its wild swinging model runs?

[Twisted-core]

12z EPS ens runs

https://imgur.com/X9V0lr6

[LarryWx]

The GEFS got more active yesterday at 12Z & then even more at 18Z. Today's four runs appear to be even more active than yesterday's 18Z. Is this a sign that there really will be a genesis mid to late next week or just a false alarm? Stay tuned!

[Aric Dunn]

00z ICON is very interesting..

[N2FSU]

00z ICON is very interesting..

It sure is:

[stormlover2013]

Over a week away, nothing worth nothing unless 3-4 days away