2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[tolakram]

Careful with the wording though please. I don't think there is bias because someone thinks something, I think the hindsight technique used might be weighted to the wrong thing or there's an indicator that is not acting as expected, but I do not think any personal bias is effecting these forecasts.

[NDG]

One thing for sure the MDR remains bone dry and on top of that shear has being ripping across the western Atlantic MDR this week (which surprisingly the GFS did a good job in forecasting this a week ago). Models are still persistent that the shear will led up over the next two weeks. But whether moisture will increase or not as we go into September, is still the big debate but things are pointing to some moisture increase as the sinking motion subsides some as it usually does.
Current average area sounding across the western MDR


GFS shear forecast from a week ago


GFS shear forecast for the next 2 weeks

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the Euro seasonal forecast was right for once this season, I mean a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

[Hurricane Jed]

We’ve had fast start seasons that have turned into garbage (1968), Slow start seasons that were extremely active (1969), seasons that have been active but weak storms (2013). Seasons with few storms but several notable storms (1935). I could go on and on but bottom line is each season is like a blindpacked bag, you’re not gonna know what you get until it’s opened all the way.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Maybe the Euro seasonal forecast was right for once this season, I mean a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

To some degree, one field that the Euro failed on is that the MSLPs have been running near average across the Atlantic MDR, it was forecasting it to be well above average.

[SFLcane]

MDR closed until further notice...

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1161619642227539981

[cycloneye]

This is big news.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

[SFLcane]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Which equals to a bunch of ugly subtropical stuff north of 25n probably not affecting anyone. Nice break this season if it holds true

[toad strangler]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Yikes. No W leaning ridging please.

[toad strangler]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Which equals to a bunch of ugly subtropical stuff north of 25n probably not affecting anyone. Nice break this season if it holds true

No, try 22N and North and not a good idea to make that assessment at this stage. How often do we have to be reminded that Andrew did not strengthen until well into the sub tropics and rode a very unfriendly ridge.

[SFLcane]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Which equals to a bunch of ugly subtropical stuff north of 25n probably not affecting anyone. Nice break this season if it holds true

No, try 22N and North and not a good idea to make that assessment at this stage. How often do we have to be reminded that Andrew did not strengthen until well into the sub tropics and rode a very unfriendly ridge.

Oh i get it trust me i went through andrew in 92 in florida city myself models do suggest an MJO/CCKW is moving into the Atlantic what actually forms is hard to say. Just an ugly look overall as we head into prime season starting aug 20

[toad strangler]

Which equals to a bunch of ugly subtropical stuff north of 25n probably not affecting anyone. Nice break this season if it holds true

No, try 22N and North and not a good idea to make that assessment at this stage. How often do we have to be reminded that Andrew did not strengthen until well into the sub tropics and rode a very unfriendly ridge.

Oh i get it trust me i went through andrew in 92 in florida city myself models do suggest an MJO/CCKW is moving into the Atlantic what actually forms is hard to say. Just an ugly look overall as we head into prime season starting aug 20

Ugly for the MDR overall yes, that I agree with.

[NotSparta]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Not really, this is pretty much the default state of these models

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1161642556779892737




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1161644730712612865

[LarryWx]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Not really, this is pretty much the default state of these models

I was going to say that there MAY be a dry bias in the MDR for this prediction, at least based on recent years. So, if one is in the Caribbean thinking clear sailing ahead for sure (which obviously could still be the case), you may want to temper that a bit for the possibility that a dry bias is making it look too dry for Sep and Oct. Another important thing is that this is an Aug-Oct forecast. August is clearly going to end up very dry. But the very dry Aug is included in this forecast. Sep-Oct could actually be near normal (or perhaps even slightly wetter than normal) and Aug-Oct still come out dry like this shows.
What I’d really like to see is a forecast for Sep, alone. Does it exist? I’m not so much curious about Oct because by then the MDR isn’t that important.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1161642556779892737

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1161644730712612865

I don’t know but could it be because the correlation of CCKW and genesis is not as high as these two mets think? I can see a CCKW increasing chances somewhat but just how much do they do that? Maybe there are other factors in play that are against genesis that are forecasted to be more dominant? Note that whereas there was an increase in convection in the eastern Atlantic if I’m recalling correctly, there was no TC genesis with the last CCKW. Of course, climo will be much more favorable by then vs the time period for the prior one. So, let’s see what happens.

[psyclone]

At the risk of sounding a bit back yard-ish...these long range predictions have consistently showed wet conditions over the eastern Gulf...which has been hot in recent years wrt tc activity. Speaking more broadly, we are just getting into the time of year where the calendar loads up with historical big tc hits. If we look today...the vast majority of big hits have come after this date. I think this is a great measuring stick. Yes, it is fair to say the race is on and we're not burning up the track....but we just left the starting blocks. It would not be a shocker if the season ended up somewhat quieter than normal overall...but with a somewhat higher landfall risk in the southeast US..

[CyclonicFury]

This is big news.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1161626273568849921

Which equals to a bunch of ugly subtropical stuff north of 25n probably not affecting anyone. Nice break this season if it holds true

Eric Blake said not too long ago that long range rainfall anomaly forecasts were poor for predicting TC activity since TCs can be small features in short timescales.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1161642556779892737

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1161644730712612865

I don’t know but could it be because the correlation of CCKW and genesis is not as high as these two mets think? I can see a CCKW increasing chances somewhat but just how much do they do that? Maybe there are other factors in play that are against genesis that are forecasted to be more dominant? Note that whereas there was an increase in convection in the eastern Atlantic if I’m recalling correctly, there was no TC genesis with the last CCKW. Of course, climo will be much more favorable by then vs the time period for the prior one. So, let’s see what happens.

The models played catch up w/ the last CCKW (but were a bit overzealous), and will probably do the same w/ this one. Difference is, MJO is less favorable and it'll be in the peak season period

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1161642556779892737

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1161644730712612865

I don’t know but could it be because the correlation of CCKW and genesis is not as high as these two mets think? I can see a CCKW increasing chances somewhat but just how much do they do that? Maybe there are other factors in play that are against genesis that are forecasted to be more dominant? Note that whereas there was an increase in convection in the eastern Atlantic if I’m recalling correctly, there was no TC genesis with the last CCKW. Of course, climo will be much more favorable by then vs the time period for the prior one. So, let’s see what happens.

The models played catch up w/ the last CCKW (but were a bit overzealous), and will probably do the same w/ this one. Difference is, MJO is less favorable and it'll be in the peak season period

I’d still love to see statistics showing how high or low the correlation actually is.