ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

As the thread passed to a new page,I am reposting the Climate Prediction Center declaration of El Nino in english and in Spanish.

Climate Prediction Center July Update=El Nino has been declared officially.

El Nino has been declared by CPC.Read the July Update below.

Synopsis: El Niño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.

During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0°C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.9°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Niño conditions.

Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.

Expected El Niño impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the highest probabilities for a near-average season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Below is the Spanish translation of the El Nino Advisory

El Boletin sobre la declaracion de El Niño oficialmente por Climate Prediction Center

Para aquellos miembros que no sepan ingles aqui esta el boletin de Climate Prediction Center sobre la llegada de El Niño oficialmente.


Sinopsis: Condiciones de El Niño continuarán desarrollándose y se espera que duren hasta el Invierno del Hemisferio Norte 2009-2010.

Durante el mes de junio de 2009, ocurrió una transición en las condiciones a través del Océano Pacífico ecuatorial de condiciones de ENSO-neutral a El Niño. Las anomalías en la temperatura de la superficie del mar ecuatorial (SST, por sus siglas en inglés), continuaban aumentando con las últimas desviaciones semanales excediendo +1.0°C a través de una estrecha banda en el este del Pacífico ecuatorial (Fig. 1). Todos los índices semanales de SST aumentaron continuamente durante el mes de junio y ahora fluctuando entre +0.6°C a +0.9°C (Fig. 2). Las anomalías del contenido calórico en la sub-superficie oceánica (temperaturas promedio en los 300m superiores del océano, Fig. 3) aumentaron también a medida que la capa termoclinal continuaba profundizando (Fig. 4). En consistencia con la evolución oceánica, los vientos alisios ecuatoriales en los niveles bajos de la atmósfera estuvieron más débiles de lo normal a través de gran parte de la cuenca del Pacífico y la convección se tornó aun más suprimida sobre Indonesia. Esta combinación del océano con la atmósfera demuestra el desarrollo de las condiciones de El Niño.

Los modelos de pronósticos de las anomalías de SST para la región del Niño-3.4 (Fig. 5) reflejan un consenso en crecimiento para el desarrollo continuo de El Niño (+0.5°C o mayor en la región de el Niño-3.4). Sin embargo, la extensión de los modelos muestra una discrepancia en el fortalecimiento eventual de El Niño (+0.5°C a +2.0°C). Las condiciones actuales y las tendencias recientes favorecen el desarrollo continuo de un fortalecimiento de débil-a-moderado de El Niño hasta el otoño 2009 del Hemisferio Norte, con posibilidad de fortalecimiento a partir de entonces.

Los impactos esperados de El Niño durante los meses de julio-septiembre 2009 incluyen un aumento en la precipitación sobre partes del centro y oeste-central del Océano Pacífico, junto con la continuación de condiciones más secas de lo normal sobre Indonesia. Los impactos en la temperatura y precipitación sobre Estados Unidos son típicamente más débiles durante el verano del Hemisferio Norte y a principios de otoño, y se fortalecen generalmente durante la postrimería de otoño e invierno. El Niño, puede ayudar a suprimir la actividad de huracanes en el Atlántico aumentando el gradiente de vientos vertical sobre el Mar Caribe y el Océano Atlántico tropical. El pronóstico de NOAA sobre la temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico emitido en mayo (será actualizado el 6 de agosto) indica las probabilidades mayores para una temporada cerca del promedio.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sc_Sp.html

[Macrocane]

Now, I'm worried. They say that El Niño will be weak to moderate into Fall but further strengthening is possible and that means little rain for Central America next year. In 2007 rainy season started in late June, one month later than average, and there were some crop losses. The good thing is that we could have strongest shots of cold air during late Fall and Winter, on november 2006 San Salvador reached 12 ºC (54 ºF) when the average low for november is 17 ºC (63 ºF) and the yearly average low is 20 º (68 º).

Wonderful weather to have lows in the mid 60's in November!

Yes, november, december and january are the best months, cool nights and warm days.

[tolakram]

I played around with the graphic generator at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/co ... intpage.pl

2009 Jun SST anomalies in the pacific:



After plotting all the July anomalies from recent El Nino years 1991 July looks to be the closest in similarity.





Notice that 2004, which is called an El Nino year but had a lot of activity starts off with very cool waters in the Eastern Pacific in July.





So based on this incredibly unscientific analysis I would look at the 1991 season as a possible comparison to this year.

1991 8/4/2

[cycloneye]

If the ENSO models are right,there will be plenty to track in the Atlantic Basin on 2010 as it appears that this El Nino wont last beyond 9 months.

[Gustywind]

As usual wait and Sea (see):lol:

[cycloneye]

As usual wait and Sea (see):lol:

I would recommend to all who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands that past history tells us that seasons that had less activity,the Eastern Caribbean islands haved seen landfalling systems.On the contrary,hyperactive seasons haved been with less landfalls in the islands.That is why we cant let our guard down,even if the season has limited activity.Always be prepared as it only takes one system to do all the damage.

[El Nino]

Hi all,

I'm not really participating here, but I'd like to tell you a few things about El Nino and its consequences here in Lima, Peru.

Normally, winter in Lima produces grey sky with a lot of humidity, and temperatures around 14º in the morning and 17º at midday. Since the beginning of the winter, we just had a few days below 20º, and sometimes we had 22-23º. We have 20º when there's no sun, and 23º when the day is sunny. A few days, we had sunshine from the morning at 7am, which is highly unusual for the time of the year. All press articles are pointing out the warm waters of the Peruvian coast.
But, 3 days ago, the peruvian press said that these warm waters would disappear in 15 days, and air temperature will go back to its normal. I don't know what to think about this. Is the recent evolution in the Eastern part of the Pacific is the reason of this, or is this wrong ?
Anyway, winter here is far from being confortable. And that's the best point ...

[cycloneye]

Hi all,

I'm not really participating here, but I'd like to tell you a few things about El Nino and its consequences here in Lima, Peru.

Normally, winter in Lima produces grey sky with a lot of humidity, and temperatures around 14º in the morning and 17º at midday. Since the beginning of the winter, we just had a few days below 20º, and sometimes we had 22-23º. We have 20º when there's no sun, and 23º when the day is sunny. A few days, we had sunshine from the morning at 7am, which is highly unusual for the time of the year. All press articles are pointing out the warm waters of the Peruvian coast.
But, 3 days ago, the peruvian press said that these warm waters would disappear in 15 days, and air temperature will go back to its normal. I don't know what to think about this. Is the recent evolution in the Eastern part of the Pacific is the reason of this, or is this wrong ?
Anyway, winter here is far from being confortable. And that's the best point ...

Good to see how El Nino has its effects in that country.Yes,there has been some cooling in the extreme equatorial Eastern Pacific among the SSTS.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

[jinftl]

Yep...some el nino season storms from the past (with the nino region 3.4 sst anomaly around the time of the storm....the higher the anomaly, the stronger the el nino)

1965 - Betsy (SST anomaly for Aug-Sept-Oct 1965 = 1.4C = strong el nino)
1969 - Camille (borderline event, SST anomaly for Aug-Sept-Oct 1969 = 0.6C)
1972 - Agnes (SST anomaly for Jun-July-Aug 1972 = 1.0C)
1992 - Andrew (borderline event, SST anomaly for Jun-Jul-Aug 1992 = 0.5C)
2002 - Lili (SST anomaly for Aug-Sept-Oct 2002 - 1.1C)
2004 - Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne (SST anomal for Aug-Sept-Oct = 0.9C)

This is GREAT news for those looking for a below normal hurricane season.

That is true,but remember the famous phrase (it only takes one).

[littlevince]

El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

El Nino has been declared officially

I could be wrong, but I think officially is not yet an El Nino, but only El Nino conditions

NOAA declares the onset of El Niño conditions when the 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5ºC in the east-central equatorial Pacific [between 5oN-5oS and 170oW-120oW]. To be classified as a full-fledged El Niño episode, these conditions must be satisfied for a period of at least five consecutive three-month seasons.

[El Nino]

Peruvian press talking about EN : http://peru21.pe/noticia/311771/fenomeno-nino-no-tan-violento-como-hace-diez-anos

[cycloneye]

Translating to english what the people in Peru are saying about this El Nino,its the same as I in the bulletin post that all can see up at the top of this page,so I dont have to add more.

[cycloneye]

More press information about El Nino.Interesting the last 3 sentences.

WASHINGTON - El Nino is back.

Government scientists said Thursday that the periodic warming of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather around the world, has returned.

The Pacific had been in what is called a neutral state, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say the sea surface temperature climbed to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific in June.

In addition, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said temperatures in other tropical regions are also above normal, with warmer than usual readings as much as 975 feet below the ocean surface.

In general, El Nino conditions are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

A summer El Nino can lead to wetter than normal conditions in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. In an El Nino year there tend to be more Eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

The forecasters said they expect this El Nino to continue strengthening over the next few months and to last through the winter of 2009-2010.

"Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Nino may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy," NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

NOAA officials noted that not all El Nino effects are negative. For example, it can suppress Atlantic hurricanes and bring needed moisture to the arid Southwest.

But it can also steer damaging winter storms to California and increase storminess across the southern United States.

The warming of the ocean can also lead to a reduction in the seafood catch off the West Coast, and fewer fish can also impact food sources for several types of birds and marine mammals.

A recent study by researchers at Georgia Tech suggests there may actually be two forms of El Nino, depending on whether the warming is stronger in the eastern or central pacific.

While the current warming seems to be strongest in the east, the more traditional form, government forecasters did not categorize it.

If the Georgia Tech study is correct, this would be the type of El Nino that reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The other form, centered farther west, reportedly seems to promote Atlantic storms.


http://green.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090709 ... _nino.html

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI Data

The SOI mantains positive as of today.

1-Jul-2009 +12.62
2-Jul-2009 +10.40
3-Jul-2009 +2.95
4-Jul-2009 +1.85
5-Jul-2009 +8.00
6-Jul-2009 +6.96
7-Jul-2009 +5.17
8-Jul-2009 +1.85
9-Jul-2009 -4.06
10-Jul-2009 +1.17

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[jinftl]

Typically el nino events...esp strong el ninos...are characterized by large negative SOI values...comparing current conditions to prior years:

Daily SOI Data

The SOI mantains positive as of today.

1-Jul-2009 +12.62
2-Jul-2009 +10.40
3-Jul-2009 +2.95
4-Jul-2009 +1.85
5-Jul-2009 +8.00
6-Jul-2009 +6.96
7-Jul-2009 +5.17
8-Jul-2009 +1.85
9-Jul-2009 -4.06
10-Jul-2009 +1.17

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[cycloneye]

No big changes in this graphic of the anomalies.If I can say of a change and its a minor thing,is that the 1.0C area has shrinked a tad,compared to last weeks readings.



http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/

[cycloneye]

The POAMA model from Australia has a peak just below +2.0C by late October or November.After December,it starts to go down,same as CFS (NCEP)



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

CFS (NCEP)

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI Data

It continues to stay in positive territory as of today.

2009052020090618 -10.1
2009052120090619 -10.8
2009052220090620 -9.9
2009052320090621 -9.7
2009052420090622 -8
2009052520090623 -7.9
2009052620090624 -6.2
2009052720090625 -5.2
2009052820090626 -4.4
2009052920090627 -4.2
2009053020090628 -2.5
2009053120090629 -2.3
2009060120090630 -2.3
2009060220090701 -2.2
2009060320090702 -.5
2009060420090703 +.4
2009060520090704 +.4
2009060620090705 +1.2
2009060720090706 +.5
2009060820090707 +.6
2009060920090708 +.6
2009061020090709 +2.9




http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

For the members who dont know what the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is,here is the explanation about what it does in terms of ENSO.Link to glossary below.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml

[jinftl]

Peak hurricane season sst anomalies (except current anomalies for 2009 season)....with the number of storms that occurred during that season.

One interesting thing....note the above normal temps in the west pac in 2009...around papua new guinea and australia. During the strongest el ninos, that region was running below normal...something to keep an eye on.

On the other hand, in 2002 and 2004, the water in that part of the pacific didn't cool significantly....some resemblance to what we see this summer so far.

[Lurker]

You bring good insights to the forum. SOI has now been positive 19 of the last 20 days. Not very indicative of El Nino conditions.

Peak hurricane season sst anomalies (except current anomalies for 2009 season)....with the number of storms that occurred during that season.

One interesting thing....note the above normal temps in the west pac in 2009...around papua new guinea and australia. During the strongest el ninos, that region was running below normal...something to keep an eye on.

On the other hand, in 2002 and 2004, the water in that part of the pacific didn't cool significantly....some resemblance to what we see this summer so far.