![Image](https://i.imgur.com/WnmcNhD.png)
doesn't seem too robust for a little while at least
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StruThiO wrote:https://i.imgur.com/WnmcNhD.png
doesn't seem too robust for a little while at least
Ntxw wrote:
That is actually quite robust in the WPAC! One must remember, the natural state (even without La Nina) is for trades to prevail in the tropical oceans. There are raw westerly component winds involved, it takes a lot to quell the trades completely and reverse it. What this has done and will do, so far, is push all that piled warm water in the WPAC slowly towards the dateline. In the coming months the warmth below the surface will strengthen as result.
As more WWBs (if they occur) will slowly push that water continuously eastward steadily. How far east is the money question. So while you're looking at reds and yellows, take a moment to think what is happening near and above the surface of the water. The momentum and wind stress is shoving the WPAC waters east.
StruThiO wrote:Ntxw wrote:
That is actually quite robust in the WPAC! One must remember, the natural state (even without La Nina) is for trades to prevail in the tropical oceans. There are raw westerly component winds involved, it takes a lot to quell the trades completely and reverse it. What this has done and will do, so far, is push all that piled warm water in the WPAC slowly towards the dateline. In the coming months the warmth below the surface will strengthen as result.
As more WWBs (if they occur) will slowly push that water continuously eastward steadily. How far east is the money question. So while you're looking at reds and yellows, take a moment to think what is happening near and above the surface of the water. The momentum and wind stress is shoving the WPAC waters east.
Hey, thanks for your reply! Always enjoy how informative they are. That makes sense. I just hope this all means the atlantic will go on vacation this year so people can finish rebuilding physically and emotionally.
StruThiO wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/WnmcNhD.png[img]
doesn't seem too robust for a little while at least
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:.
The k/w has to go all the way across the pacific, it don't just put the brakes on when its under 3.4 and come to the surface. The trades have to push the warmed water in 1.2 back west back along the eq. Then you need to satisfy the thresholds and have atmosphere coupling.
As far as i know the ESPI is still in negative values over the enso region. No rain from
no convention.
The 850 zonal wind plot posted shows the easterlies are much stronger than the wwb.
Wwb needs to be well past 180w not to the west of it.
The season will officially begin on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30..... Maybe next year.
Happy to eat crow but don't think i will be
Ntxw wrote:Eastern ENSO regions have yet to reflect.
But west of the dateline the westerlies continues to expand. Of note the trades are shrinking in duration and intensity east of the dateline of late.
[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2rcx2s6.gif[img]
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Eastern ENSO regions have yet to reflect.
But west of the dateline the westerlies continues to expand. Of note the trades are shrinking in duration and intensity east of the dateline of late.
[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2rcx2s6.gif[img]
That's a large WWB. Even though the WWB has not reached east of the dateline, CDAS analysis shows weak westerly winds/significantly weaker trades stretching from 180-120W between 5S-5N.
We didn't see this type of wind activity at all last year.
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Eastern ENSO regions have yet to reflect.
But west of the dateline the westerlies continues to expand. Of note the trades are shrinking in duration and intensity east of the dateline of late.
[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2rcx2s6.gif[img]
That's a large WWB. Even though the WWB has not reached east of the dateline, CDAS analysis shows weak westerly winds/significantly weaker trades stretching from 180-120W between 5S-5N.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/SlGGAsh.gif[img]
We didn't see this type of wind activity at all last year.
The trades are still enhanced at the equator in that region, but yeah there are some decent westerly anomalies not too far to the north.
[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e3d7d61fac17ed8d5342b7858be67b2030a028b4f2c2a25da335486b44d0332.gif[img]
Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
That's a large WWB. Even though the WWB has not reached east of the dateline, CDAS analysis shows weak westerly winds/significantly weaker trades stretching from 180-120W between 5S-5N.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/SlGGAsh.gif[img]
We didn't see this type of wind activity at all last year.
The trades are still enhanced at the equator in that region, but yeah there are some decent westerly anomalies not too far to the north.
[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e3d7d61fac17ed8d5342b7858be67b2030a028b4f2c2a25da335486b44d0332.gif[img]
That's true, we still need the winds at the equator to shift. But even with weak trades and no westerly winds, weak trades are also significant because surfacing warm anomalies will not be resisted as they normally would be. This happened last spring when weak warm anomalies allowed the Nino regions to be at borderline Nino levels due to weak trades.
This WWB has been strong enough to gradually affect the wind direction in the regions east of the dateline in the past few weeks. Let's see what April has in store.
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