Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ninel conde]

too bad a hurricane the NHC is already saying will weaken didnt let us break the record.

[Dean4Storms]

Things heated up out there now! It's like the ramp up got delayed by a few weeks. Think things will be pretty busy now through October looking at long range guidance!

[galaxy401]

too bad a hurricane the NHC is already saying will weaken didnt let us break the record.

It's not forecast to weaken for another 24 hours.

[HurricaneRyan]

LMAO at the record coming within three to six hours of being broken and then NOT being broken.

Mother nature is being SHADY this season haahahahh!

[MGC]

There is no proof Humberto is a hurricane just an educated guess. Recon or ship report would have been nice......MGC

[Hurricane Alexis]

There is no proof Humberto is a hurricane just an educated guess. Recon or ship report would have been nice......MGC

Satellite is enough proof to know that this is a hurricane. Microwave imagery shows the covered eye as well.

Sent from my ZTE-X500 using Tapatalk 2

[chaser1]

about 57 hours from the record

Hurakan, did you happen to post previous to this post, those years that dated back even further (perhaps 100 years)? I was looking for those events and years as well, but now not sure which thread it might have been in.... thanks

[Frank2]

Just a guess but perhaps the season will be on it's last legs once the current favorable MJO cycle ends because we are just 3 days from mid September, and it doesn't take long for Fall to arrive...

[hurricaneCW]

Data strongly suggests high activity levels when MJO falls into circle for September, which proves that the MJO is far less needed for activity during the heart of the season.

Activity also looks to be focused closer to the US, gulf and Caribbean in particular.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I've been noticing in the long range. Most models lower the pressure in the carribean and gulf. Some show a storm while others show just pressures lowering. I'm not posting models because long range reliablity. Will see in about a week if anything verifies.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just a guess but perhaps the season will be on it's last legs once the current favorable MJO cycle ends because we are just 3 days from mid September, and it doesn't take long for Fall to arrive...

I agree with you frank. Think we have seen all what this season has to offerin this recent brief uptick in activity. One minimal hurricane that couldnt even reach cat 2 strength in the east Atlantic and some weak short lived storms to make the number predictions look more respectable.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just a guess but perhaps the season will be on it's last legs once the current favorable MJO cycle ends because we are just 3 days from mid September, and it doesn't take long for Fall to arrive...

A agree Frank. It's definitely not the explosion of activity that many on this board said would happen. Just a couple of weak systems not dong much......Even the ones going out to Sea aren't impressive this year..... Just one of those years. I'm sure a very active hurricane year isn't far from us though. We can only stay lucky for so long....Something's got to give...

[gatorcane]

Frank2 as you also live in South Florida, arrival of fall isn't necessarily a good thing for us as far as hurricanes are concerned as October is our most climatologically favored month for hurricane strikes. We have seen that at least the NW Caribbean has been a favored area for development this year (TD 10 in the BOC right now would have developed there had it not moved west into the Yucatan) and the SW Caribbean, though no systems have formed there yet, is usually favored year round. Cold fronts could bring them north out of the Caribbean. Most South Florida hurricane strikes are from the south not the east.

[LarryWx]

Data strongly suggests high activity levels when MJO falls into circle for September, which proves that the MJO is far less needed for activity during the heart of the season.

Activity also looks to be focused closer to the US, gulf and Caribbean in particular.

I agree 100%! Within the circle has actually been MORE conducive than the average for all MJO phases, combined, since 1995 during SEP! Somewhat counterintuitive but that's what the statitics show.

[Sanibel]

Almost mid September and no September monster yet.

[ronjon]

Ok I'm ready to throw in the towel on this season now. This season's predictions will rank as one of the greatest forecast busts in modern history. Note to METs, better start factoring in dry saharan air, low RH, lack of vertical instability, and ULLs into the forecast mix in the future. This season just goes to show you that warmer than normal SSTs and lack of El Nino pattern aren't everything to an active season.

[ninel conde]

Ok I'm ready to throw in the towel on this season now. This season's predictions will rank as one of the greatest forecast busts in modern history. Note to METs, better start factoring in dry saharan air, low RH, lack of vertical instability, and ULLs into the forecast mix in the future. This season just goes to show you that warmer than normal SSTs and lack of El Nino pattern aren't everything to an active season.

another day where the atlantic is hostile everywhere. even the BOC is only marginally favorable. SAL hasnt been a negative factor this season but mid level dry air has been extreme. one thing forecasters better do in the future where landfall forecasts are concerned is to determine if the season will be dominated by an east coast trof, ala the last 4 years. if it is then landfalls will be few and far between. what joe bastardi did this season is inexplicable to me. his preseason forecast was for numerous landfalls including majors, based largely on the nver developing west atlantic ridge to dominate. it didnt. even jb saw the obvious and forecasted a huge trof to dominate starting in aug, which it did and has, yet he didnt even consider lowering his landfall forecast, which he should have done on aug 01.

bottom line: next season if it appears that the texas ridge and east coast trof will once again dominate then any preseason forecast calling for numerous landfalls should be ignored as ridiculous. that pattern blocks the entire coastline from landfalls. and yes, i understand that the odd storm can form at the perfect time and sneak through.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 16/photo/1

that photo from jb should be instructive to everyone. it depicts the pattern we have seen since late july. huge eastern us trof, and texas ridge. you can easily see why the entire coastline from the tip of florida to maine is blocked. also, you can see how the texas ridge is blocking the GOM north of 25.

[Frank2]

True what Gatorcane said about down here - Wilma was on October 24, but once the northern jet starts to move south that really puts an end to anything else, though as you said the SW Caribbean is favorable year-round, as long as the system doesn't move north of 20N...

P.S. Lots of Saharan dust over South Florida this morning - hard to miss that white hazy sky even though it's clear of clouds...

Frank

[tolakram]

I've said before I don't see the value in landfall predictions. You could have a season denoted by troughs pulling every system out to sea, then by chance one storm develops that gets caught by a fleeting ridge and hits land. Timing, as they say, is everything. Seems to me the only thing a low landfall risk forecast could do is decrease the number of people who are prepared for a surprise event, like an Andrew.

As far as this season goes, we can complain the forecasts are a bust, but by claiming the season is a bust we are making the very forecast that we say can't be made. Good luck with that.

If the experts are confused as to why the season has been a bust so far then I am confused as well. I think it's extremely foolish and ignorant to think any of us amateurs can, with the help of the mighty interweb, see things scientists and forecasters who do this for a living could not.

[ninel conde]

wilma was in 2005, and this isnt 2005. if florida gets hit by anything it will be from a strung out weak TS battling against the trof.