2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

I intended to post this a few days back. Tuesday's graphic is gonna be really interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

If we get to O or P before the end of August, the Greek Alphabet better be ready. Even in the 2005 Atlantic season, we were only at L at that point.

Also it seems this year there is more interest than ever in the EPAC...I guess because a slow Atlantic season was expected by almost everyone, and the EPAC and CPAC have gone bonkers so far...

There also is an additional three names on the Eastern Pacific list compared to the Atlantic each year. Also in the 2005 Atlantic season at this point we were only thorough I (Irene).

[Yellow Evan]

If we get to O or P before the end of August, the Greek Alphabet better be ready. Even in the 2005 Atlantic season, we were only at L at that point.

Also it seems this year there is more interest than ever in the EPAC...I guess because a slow Atlantic season was expected by almost everyone, and the EPAC and CPAC have gone bonkers so far...

There also is an additional three names on the Eastern Pacific list compared to the Atlantic each year. Also in the 2005 Atlantic season at this point we were only thorough I (Irene).

And the EPAC peaks sooner than the ATL. I doubt the activity observed in November and late October in 2005 will repeat itself this year.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[supercane4867]

Here comes major hurricane Norbert and TS Odile in the long range GFS

[Yellow Evan]

GFS also shows Major Hurricane Marie from the 0/30 thing. Develops it by day 4.



UKMET and FIM show a really really inactive basin (sarcasm) this coming week

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days to the
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slow development of this system
is possible later this week while the low moves roughly parallel to
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS Marie. Keeps it somewhat offshore.



0z ECMWF hinting at a possibly recurvature.



oz CMC has it passing SW.

This reminds me of Jonh 06 and Jimena, which save the GFDL and HWRF, were all initially forecast to pass W or SW of the peninsula. Both were high-end Cat 2's at landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

HOLY CRAP.





Brings it pretty close to CA as a mid-grade TS.



CMC shows a major as well.



6z HWRF makes this a hurricane by day 5. Much more easterly track. Jimena 09 and John 06 were forecast to move near Baja by models early on, when the guidence3 had it move west. Guess what? It verified.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over Panama and Costa Rica is expected to move
westward and develop into a low pressure area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Thursday. Additional development of this system is
likely later this week while the low moves west-northwestward well
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

My sister lives in Calexico. Right at the border between California and Mexico. This could be bad for her. But they are in a drought so this maybe good. Who knows.

[gatorcane]

it certainly seems that we are in El Nino conditions with all the storms going off in the EPAC and the Atlantic as dead as a doornail. The new GFS system which NHC has at 0/60 right now is an absolute monster! Yowza!

[Yellow Evan]

My sister lives in Calexico. Right at the border between California and Mexico. This could be bad for her. But they are in a drought so this maybe good. Who knows.

I think this possible storm will have both positive and negative effect on the state. In any case, it is still 10 days out.

I live outside of Las Vegas, so I'm far away from the core of this possible system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Yellow Evan]

it certainly seems that we are in El Nino conditions with all the storms going off in the EPAC and the Atlantic as dead as a doornail.

We probably are, giving the high activity near 120-130W, but I wll point out that the EPAC can be active in neutral seasons as well. Look at 1990, 1984, and 1985 for proof.

[somethingfunny]

My sister lives in Calexico. Right at the border between California and Mexico. This could be bad for her. But they are in a drought so this maybe good. Who knows.

I think this possible storm will have both positive and negative effect on the state. In any case, it is still 10 days out.

I live outside of Las Vegas, so I'm far away from the core of this possible system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

The core of a tropical cyclone will almost certainly never be an issue in the Southwest United States in terms of an intense eyewall. It's flooding rains that you need to watch out for and there's little correlation between the location of a decaying cyclone's center and the location of the heaviest rainfall.

Here are some fun examples.

[Yellow Evan]

My sister lives in Calexico. Right at the border between California and Mexico. This could be bad for her. But they are in a drought so this maybe good. Who knows.

I think this possible storm will have both positive and negative effect on the state. In any case, it is still 10 days out.

I live outside of Las Vegas, so I'm far away from the core of this possible system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

The core of a tropical cyclone will almost certainly never be an issue in the Southwest United States in terms of an intense eyewall. It's flooding rains that you need to watch out for and there's little correlation between the location of a decaying cyclone's center and the location of the heaviest rainfall.

That is especially true with the Southwest US.



This is Arizona's deadliest TC.



This is Arizona's costliest TC.

The Southwest US has been rather lucky as a whole as of late. They haven't had a single storm do much there since Nora in 1997, which was borderline active era.

[cycloneye]

I am going to go ahead and take a shot at the next system 0%/60% as of this post and say it may get close to both Amanda (135kts) and Cristina (130kts) in intensity when it reaches the peak.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Depending on the model trends I think we could see something like a Rick of 2009 before it weakens as it gets close to the the coast.

I say Rick because that thing was huge. And so is this storm in the GFS forecast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

[Steve820]

It really looks like we are in an El Nino with the dead Atlantic and the very active EPac. The 0/60 AOI might even have a slight shot at C5 status. The EPac is going insane and just won't stop

[supercane4867]

18z GFS brings Marie down to 940mb with an absolute gigantic appearance