2015 Global model runs discussion

[Hammy]

Euro still showing development in 96 hours, I assume a few more runs would warrant mention by NHC, though I'm starting to wonder if it is in fact frontally-induced if it would be more of a hybrid type system similar to Josephine in 1996.

[LarryWx]

I started noticing this overstrengthening tendency on the Euro in 2010 (so it is nothing new) though it appeared to be worse north of 25N. Anyone recall what crazy things it did to Fiona? The Euro had one run with it down to 908 mb!! It had six runs lower than 940 mb with most of these threatening the CONUS! It ended up never reaching H status with lowest pressure down only to 998 mb and it didn't even get close to the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I have detailed stats on the Euro from the way too strong progs of 2010-1.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro develops it into a weak TS and moves it inland near Brownsville in 168 hours. The track looks similar to TS Hermine in 2010.

[Brent]

What has happened to king Euro?

[caneman]

In my mind, there never was a King Euro. It just further illustrates, the need to follow a blend of models just like the NHC does.

[Stormcenter]

Very true.

In my mind, there never was a King Euro. It just further illustrates, the need to follow a blend of models just like the NHC does.

[NDG]

Very true.

In my mind, there never was a King Euro. It just further illustrates, the need to follow a blend of models just like the NHC does.

2008 there was such a thing as a King Euro, it was hands down the best model that year, at least in the Atlantic Basin.
In 2009 and 2010 it did OK also.

[LarryWx]

I disagree about 2010. See my post six posts above this one for why I'm saying this. 2010 was the first year that I documented in detail numerous runs that severely overstrengthened several Atlantic basin TC's on a good number of runs, with TS Fiona being the worst. That was the season that the Euro seemed to go downhill. It did the worst overall when TC's were projected to be north of 25N.

[wxman57]

Interesting that every 12Z ECMWF run since Monday has predicted TS/H development in the NW Gulf next week and the storm heading NE toward Louisiana. Every 00Z ECMWF run has predicted a weak low forming along the cold front and moving into NE Mexico or Texas. Based on that, I predict that today's 12Z ECMWF will predict a Louisiana hurricane impact late next week.

[Tireman4]

Interesting that every 12Z ECMWF run since Monday has predicted TS/H development in the NW Gulf next week and the storm heading NE toward Louisiana. Every 00Z ECMWF run has predicted a weak low forming along the cold front and moving into NE Mexico or Texas. Based on that, I predict that today's 12Z ECMWF will predict a Louisiana hurricane impact late next week.

Hummmm

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF Ensembles and Control Run are still rather quiet with possible GOM development next week. 6zGFS has a weak are of Low Pressure making landfall in NE Mexico by Tuesday.

[Steve]

0zECMWF Ensembles and Control Run are still rather quiet with possible GOM development next week. 6zGFS has a weak are of Low Pressure making landfall in NE Mexico by Tuesday.

I only glanced at it this am, but what appears happens as at that deep (for this time of year) trough lifts back, raging high pressure builds back in far into the western Gulf and just pushes it inland or brings it up sort of along the coast or just inland. Rain still moves up to the Northern and Northwestern Gulf though, so it may be a situation where low level moisture stays in the pattern even though there is a surface high since it would be sort of on the western perimeter. That's a strong high for September btw and vastly different (though probably transitory) from the "always a trough in the East" pattern.

[Alyono]

even the Canadian shows next to nothing

[Stormcenter]

Actually I think that's a good sign if you are looking for development. IMO

even the Canadian shows next to nothing

[Tireman4]

Actually I think that's a good sign if you are looking for development. IMO

even the Canadian shows next to nothing

Oh the Crazy Canadian. What a drink? Wait, was the Clearly Canadian. Refreshing. Back to weather. This will be interesting....very interesting... for all

[wxmann_91]

What has happened to king Euro?

Even in 2011 it scored a coup with Sandy... ever since then it's been losing its ground to the ever-improving GFS. This year the Euro has been abysmal. Suffice it to say the Euro has lost its "King" status.

[stormlover2013]

EURO shows nottaa!!!!!! lets move on to winter lol

[LarryWx]

What has happened to king Euro?

Even in 2011 it scored a coup with Sandy... ever since then it's been losing its ground to the ever-improving GFS. This year the Euro has been abysmal. Suffice it to say the Euro has lost its "King" status.

Yes, it did very well with Sandy in 2011! The GFS did poorly with her. However, the Euro overstrengthened Irene as it had seven runs with it 927 mb or stronger when north of 30 N. The actual lowest verified to be 945 mb. The overstrengthening syndrome started in 2010.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro is weak - no hurricane for the WGOM.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro dropped the hurricane in the NW Gulf. Weak low moves inland into northern Mexico early next week. Same as the GFS.