2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

Have to watch IF something develops no trof this time around to recurve anything moving into the SW Atlantic.

[weathaguyry]

I just finished an amazing tour of the NHC thanks to Dr. Graham. I can say that everyone in there is just as surprised as us about the inactivity. It seems that they are less confident about their recently upped forecast, but as many here have stated we have a lot of real estate to cover and plenty of opportunity for a burst of activity going into September and October.

[Hurricaneman]

I just finished an amazing tour of the NHC thanks to Dr. Graham. I can say that everyone in there is just as surprised as us about the inactivity. It seems that they are less confident about their recently upped forecast, but as many here have stated we have a lot of real estate to cover and plenty of opportunity for a burst of activity going into September and October.

I feel like this season starting around the 25 th of this month through October is going to get nuts so it looks like we go from slow to woah

[SFLcane]

No development per Mr. Ortt not even with that kelvin wave

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161676415747665920

[cycloneye]

No development per Mr. Ortt not even with that kelvin wave

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161676415747665920

He adds this:

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161677117651849216

[DioBrando]

They say that every year though when there's a lull so I'm simply muting what Ortt says. 2018 was far worse conditions-wise.

[SoupBone]

No development per Mr. Ortt not even with that kelvin wave

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1161676415747665920

But he's only referring to Cape and MDR systems, not the GoM system tat the GFS has been showing, right?

[DioBrando]

Also muting season cancellers... I can remember when many said exactly the same thing last year.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119402&start=180 I had to dig up this thread.

>hostile
>shear
>dry air
>cancel!

Models have been TRENDING towards a more conducive September/October during the past few days. I place higher weighting on shear, dry air and SST models and lower weighting on precipitation models. Trends are important, hence I'm muting calls for season canceling. If the state was horrible like it was in 2013/14, then I would have not bothered with looking at the season altogether. It's not 2013. Remember when the sinking motion in 2018 actually cleared a lot quicker than what was anticipated, then Florence came for dinner? Plus that year had a building El Nino. This year is a dissipating (now dissipated) Nino.

Here is the CFS (pretty reliable) shear graph for now...:

You can't get anything out of this right now! This is peak hostility! This is normal for any year.

...compare that with predicted shear for September...:


...and the reds finally start to relax, being replaced by blues.

The (double) CCKW will likely get quick spinups in the meanwhile (short-term) and in September we could get 1 or 2 little longtrackers around the G/H/I range (also as indicated on a pressure map.)

CFS rainfall maps for Africa in September are good.

The way the climate models are like right now, realistically, end name could be Lorenzo or Melissa (putting weighting on both FUTURE TRENDS and THE CURRENT SHORT-TERM STATE.) But all that could change.

[Hammy]

CFS bouncing between low-activity eastern Atlantic and high Gulf activity, and a largely dead GoM with more MDR activity, looks like it's settling on a compromise between the two--a moderately active season alternating between small spurts of activity in the Atlantic itself, followed by spurts of Gulf and western Caribbean activity (and continuing to focus on mid-September to mid-November peak--essentially the bulk of the activity occurring about one month later than normal.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CFS bouncing between low-activity eastern Atlantic and high Gulf activity, and a largely dead GoM with more MDR activity, looks like it's settling on a compromise between the two--a moderately active season alternating between small spurts of activity in the Atlantic itself, followed by spurts of Gulf and western Caribbean activity (and continuing to focus on mid-September to mid-November peak--essentially the bulk of the activity occurring about one month later than normal.

Could the seasons be starting later due to climate change?

[Hammy]

CFS bouncing between low-activity eastern Atlantic and high Gulf activity, and a largely dead GoM with more MDR activity, looks like it's settling on a compromise between the two--a moderately active season alternating between small spurts of activity in the Atlantic itself, followed by spurts of Gulf and western Caribbean activity (and continuing to focus on mid-September to mid-November peak--essentially the bulk of the activity occurring about one month later than normal.

Could the seasons be starting later due to climate change?

Wouldn't be particularly surprising, another poster earlier mentioned the WAM being too far north the last few years to produce anything in August and if I remember right, that coincided with Europe's heat waves.

[Monsoonjr99]

CFS bouncing between low-activity eastern Atlantic and high Gulf activity, and a largely dead GoM with more MDR activity, looks like it's settling on a compromise between the two--a moderately active season alternating between small spurts of activity in the Atlantic itself, followed by spurts of Gulf and western Caribbean activity (and continuing to focus on mid-September to mid-November peak--essentially the bulk of the activity occurring about one month later than normal.

Could the seasons be starting later due to climate change?

Wouldn't be particularly surprising, another poster earlier mentioned the WAM being too far north the last few years to produce anything in August and if I remember right, that coincided with Europe's heat waves.

I do think a strong northward-displaced WAM can produce more MDR activity later on in the season, even well into October. I think Nadine last year was a clue. I also have a general feeling that the 2019 Atlantic season could be heavily backloaded, perhaps with October being the most active month this year.

[SFLcane]

More crickets on this mornings 06z GFS... Eventually something has to give as we head into the REAL season.

[TheStormExpert]

More crickets on this mornings 06z GFS... Eventually something has to give as we head into the REAL season.

Either that or it’s see you in 2020!

[SFLcane]

More crickets on this mornings 06z GFS... Eventually something has to give as we head into the REAL season.

Either that or it’s see you in 2020!

Or we'll get 1914 2.0

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1161958931775799296

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1161965882370940930

[TheStormExpert]

More crickets on this mornings 06z GFS... Eventually something has to give as we head into the REAL season.

Either that or it’s see you in 2020!

Or we'll get 1914 2.0

I think we’re already slightly ahead of that year.

Either way I’m dying to track some storms and hurricanes that harmlessly affect nobody. Honestly in my opinion I don’t think this season will have much of that to offer.

[jconsor]

Dr. Ryan Truchelut from WeatherTiger, one of the most insightful tropical meteorologists I know of, posted in his weekly tropical update:

https://weathertiger.com/videos/tropical-videos/

"Longer-term, there is a weak relationship between slow starts to hurricane season and final outcomes. For the 14 seasons since 1950 nearest the 25th percentile (where we are now) on August 15th, eight finished below and six above the median. While our updated seasonal outlook issued last week zigged where others zagged and called for slightly below average total activity and near average U.S. landfall risks going forward, I do think we are a couple weeks out from a notable burst of tropical activity timed to nearly coincide with the climatological peak of hurricane season."

And a humorous, tongue-in-cheek, yet important comment at the end:
"To be a meteorologist is to meditate daily on the nature of uncertainty. The only givens here are the standards of death and taxes, plus the Tallahassee radar going down in any rain heavier than light, and hurricane threats over three-day weekends. When past performance doesn’t predict future results, the only option is to keep watching the skies."

[NotSparta]

Either that or it’s see you in 2020!

Or we'll get 1914 2.0

I think we’re already slightly ahead of that year.

Either way I’m dying to track some storms and hurricanes that harmlessly affect nobody. Honestly in my opinion I don’t think this season will have much of that to offer.

Maybe the NHC will find that Andrea wasn't really a storm, and Barry was never a hurricane, and there's no more activity for the rest of the season