2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

Yep, 00Z Euro is showing a possible Caribbean cruiser. I do believe this season is cleared for takeoff

[gatorcane]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:

[supercane4867]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwxNN8cq/gfs-shear-watl-41.png

Long range shear forecast is garbage.

[SFLcane]

Just wow!

 https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1285559247959457792

[toad strangler]

Just wow!

https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1285559247959457792

[TheStormExpert]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwxNN8cq/gfs-shear-watl-41.png

You seem very pessimistic about this season. Besides the GFS has been consistently over-analyzing shear in the Atlantic.

[stormlover2013]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:


Gfs sucks
https://i.postimg.cc/rwxNN8cq/gfs-shear-watl-41.png

You seem very pessimistic about this season. Besides the GFS has been consistently over-analyzing shear in the Atlantic.

[toad strangler]

Just a few days ago the models saw NOTHING through the end of July and into August. Just like that we have two systems with a chance at being classified. I've never ever trusted modeling in general to sniff out genesis.

[TheStormExpert]

Just a few days ago the models saw NOTHING through the end of July and into August. Just like that we have two systems with a chance at being classified. I've never ever trusted modeling in general to sniff out genesis.

Yep, just like that things can FASTLY change.

[AnnularCane]

Just a few days ago the models saw NOTHING through the end of July and into August. Just like that we have two systems with a chance at being classified. I've never ever trusted modeling in general to sniff out genesis.

Hence why cancelling the rest of the month, let alone the season, because there's nothing on the models at any given time is risky business.

[EquusStorm]

I remember the season cancel a couple weeks before Dorian leveled part of the Bahamas (in a season that ended with 18 named storms) and the season cancel a couple weeks before Michael (and two more October systems) so I'm becoming convinced it's just standard discussion fodder whenever there's no currently active major hurricane bearing down on a population center

[Steve]

It's ridiculous and silly. It's okay to try to anticipate things, but if you're wrong, there's no sense in doubling down on a losing argument. Weather models are one thing, but I feel like you have to consider other factors besides the models. MJO forecast (a different kind of model) is kind of key for this season.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

MJO is in fact pushing into 2 where it should be for a few days. I knew we would be getting out of July with a "G" storm, but I didn't think we'd also have an "H" depending on what future 91L does (maybe TS, maybe TD). Regardless, this is probably the most interesting early season since at least 2005. There has been a ton of action even though most of it has been weak. There have been many July's where the arguments were about whether a season would ever get started. This ain't one of those years.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1285560007979827201



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1285551652712456192



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285489212691820548




And some humour:
 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1285541980982968321

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1285560007979827201
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1285551652712456192
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285489212691820548

And some humour:
https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1285541980982968321

In response to the third tweet: I think that’s the precursor wave to the TC both the CFS and now the Euro have been showing for the end of July. It’s way too early to make any concrete predictions about development, but the right conditions do seem to be ready for it. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[NDG]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwxNN8cq/gfs-shear-watl-41.png

Come on Gator, you know that shear is the hardest thing for models to forecast past 5 days, if not 3-4.
Plus this particular GFS's shear graphic is exaggerated by a good 5-10 knots, as I have previously shown.

[toad strangler]

Candidate for the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/0X4QuL5.png

The GFS has nothing in that same timeframe. Take a look at the ripping shear from the TUTT:

https://i.postimg.cc/rwxNN8cq/gfs-shear-watl-41.png

Come on Gator, you know that shear is the hardest thing for models to forecast past 5 days, if not 3-4.
Plus this particular GFS's shear graphic is exaggerated by a good 5-10 knots, as I have previously shown.

gator much more bearish than I can remember since joining this place 7 years ago. All during this time of unrelenting signals. Normally I’m pretty reserved but how could you given what’s been coming together so far?

[aspen]

A tropical wave currently over Africa has model support for development in the MDR next week. The wave will emerge into the MDR in 72-96 hours, and the Euro, CMC, and ICON runs for 12z all develop it in 144-196 hours. It has also appeared on the EPS ensembles. While development is still a ways off, it’ll be after the suppressive CCKW moves out of the basin, and the wave will emerge off the coast of Africa in only a few days. This will be another very interesting disturbance to keep an eye on.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS going crazy in early August

[Hammy]

GEM seems like the best model to watch this season--it was the only one developing 99L and was likewise the only one that wasn't spinning up phantom storm after phantom storm in either basin over the last few seasons. Whatever the upgrade was last year it fixed a lot of the genesis problems.

[Hurricane Mike]

EPS going crazy in early August

https://i.imgur.com/uRFpbTP.png

Are those private or public viewing models?