2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS is being inconsistent with EPAC development. That'll have an impact on what forms in the Caribbean.

This 100%. A quicker forming storm will get more north before the Yucatán, but a stronger storm in the epac will prevent that from happening due to resultant shear.

[SFLcane]

The fact that the GFS is starting to weaken the TUTT is concerning to me and not what you wanna see going into the most active part of the season.

[dantonlsu]

The fact that the GFS is starting to weakening the TUTT is concerning to me and not what you wanna see going into the most active part of the season.

What is the TUTT acronym?

[South Texas Storms]

The fact that the GFS is starting to weakening the TUTT is concerning to me and not what you wanna see going into the most active part of the season.

What is the TUTT acronym?

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough

[SFLcane]

The fact that the GFS is starting to weakening the TUTT is concerning to me and not what you wanna see going into the most active part of the season.

What is the TUTT acronym?

Hey sorry,

It’s called a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough which essentially shears and sometimes helps recurve any tropical system coming from Africa or any for that matter.

[aspen]

12z CMC with Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, and pre-Mindy in 10 days.

[SFLcane]

Euro um what? It seems it’s also trying to break down the tutt like the gfs . You can see the ridge moving west with the tc here.

[aspen]

Euro um what? It seems it’s also trying to break down the tutt like the gfs . You can see the ridge moving west with the tc here.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTVnzd0L/0-ECC6-A20-93-E2-41-A2-A4-ED-AB53-F7-C76514.gif

I’m getting a bad feeling about that potential system. It’s also forming around the same time Irma did in 2017, and like Irma, it’ll be heading west after a TUTT breaks down.

[SoupBone]

Euro wants to break down the ridge just enough to hit Texas and scrape along the coast till going inland around Corpus Christi. The problem is that it heads north and also hits Houston.

[PTrackerLA]

Euro wants to break down the ridge just enough to hit Texas and scrape along the coast till going inland around Corpus Christi. The problem is that it heads north and also hits Houston.

12z Euro and the ensembles sure raise some eyebrows for the western GOM .

[SoupBone]

Euro wants to break down the ridge just enough to hit Texas and scrape along the coast till going inland around Corpus Christi. The problem is that it heads north and also hits Houston.

12z Euro and the ensembles sure raise some eyebrows for the western GOM .

Still opportunity and even likelihood of it changing again, but it doesn't feel good seeing it. That ridge, as it was with Grace will be the key to this system.

[SFLcane]

Looks like that wall at 60W isn't going anywhere for now. Massive recurve signal on EPS with TUTT very much in place.

[kevin]

Euro um what? It seems it’s also trying to break down the tutt like the gfs . You can see the ridge moving west with the tc here.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTVnzd0L/0-ECC6-A20-93-E2-41-A2-A4-ED-AB53-F7-C76514.gif

I know it's very far away, but I don't like this one. It's giving me Irma/Ivan vibes. With the exception of perhaps Teddy (which quickly went north after strengthening) we haven't really had a true lower MDR cruiser last year, but based on the runs I think there could possible be one this year.

[cycloneye]

Euro um what? It seems it’s also trying to break down the tutt like the gfs . You can see the ridge moving west with the tc here.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTVnzd0L/0-ECC6-A2 ... C76514.gif

Which is the right one? The above about Euro or what you said later?

Looks like that wall at 60W isn't going anywhere for now. Massive recurve signal on EPS with TUTT very much in place.

[wxman22]

Euro wants to break down the ridge just enough to hit Texas and scrape along the coast till going inland around Corpus Christi. The problem is that it heads north and also hits Houston.

It actually goes inland at Matagorda Bay.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like that wall at 60W isn't going anywhere for now. Massive recurve signal on EPS with TUTT very much in place.

I'm looking at the Euro but I don't see that.

[SFLcane]

Huge recurve signal on the EPS still. We will If this changes



You can see the TUTT still there on the euro ensemble.

[AutoPenalti]

Huge recurve signal on the EPS still. We will If this changes

https://i.postimg.cc/m28HSgzN/C6-D5-F89-E-02-D1-47-BE-91-A4-2-DE130-F330-EF.jpg

You can see the TUTT still there on the euro ensemble.

https://i.postimg.cc/Z5Qv1sLW/44307657-A440-4-BDF-BBB0-B1-B53-F1-BAE04.jpg

At 300 hrs out that seems like it would change.

[SoupBone]

Well this is what is concerning. The 18Z GFS breaks down the ridge, but then reinforces it. If that doesn't happen, the Euro solution would be correct.

[IcyTundra]

It looks like the GFS and Euro are going to be at war against each other over the next week. Who knows which one is going to be closer to being right.