99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[vaffie]

Development would suggest a Mexico storm however the longer this takes to develop if at all, would allow for troughs and other variables to enter in the over all picture. However, those who claim cooler weather would have an impact, that is null and void because the Gulf Coast and into TX is hot.

I sort of agree somewhat, but the fact is that we have zilch model guidance on this until recon gets data to initialize them. The models don't even know what's there at this point. The BAM models are forecasting a southern track, but they think it's a wave and will continue to be, and waves never have much of a northerly component anyway. So we just have to wait and see what the models say when they start before we have an idea.

[Swimdude]

Could someone post models?

[O Town]

[Scorpion]

Looks like nothing more than a bunch of thunderstorms.

[skysummit]

Looks like nothing more than a bunch of thunderstorms.

Yea...with a possible rotation at the lower levels and a possible high building at the upper levels.

[hicksta]

Looks to me that the Center is near the NE

[KatDaddy]

Dr Neil Frank thinks we will have a named storm in the SE GOM this weekend. I will believe it when I see it. Hard to believe there could be another WGOM threat. With a large high pressure across the SE US its possible.

[Weatherfreak14]

I see the counter spin now. Its hard to see.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W.

8 PM Discussion.

[wxman57]

Looks to me that the Center is near the NE

You won't be able to see the center at night, as you're only seeing the middle and high clouds. The center is near the southern edge of the convection. I estimated it to be near 16N/81W late this afternoon. It could be identified by looking at small cumulus clouds near the surface, seen in between the middle and high clouds. But you can't see these near-surface cumulus clouds at night, particularly with all the cirrus clouds covering them.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know the lbar isn't that great, but that track is just horrible to look at. Sure hope that is not a sign of the models thinking north it will go.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.terraserver.com/imagery/imag ... =370&t=pan

This gives an idea where a possible center may be trying to develop.

[audioslave8]

Please tell me looking at this image you expect this future depression to turn into anything even looking at. Maybe I am wrong but unless that dry air leaves there is nothing to worry about. It is too weak to live in that environment and there is another cold front going to move in that area soon as well. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050929 0000 050929 1200 050930 0000 050930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 81.3W 17.4N 83.0W 17.7N 84.2W 17.9N 85.3W
BAMM 16.6N 81.3W 17.8N 83.1W 18.5N 84.0W 18.8N 85.0W
A98E 16.6N 81.3W 17.2N 82.8W 17.8N 84.2W 18.4N 85.5W
LBAR 16.6N 81.3W 17.7N 83.0W 18.7N 84.1W 19.8N 85.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051001 0000 051002 0000 051003 0000 051004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 86.4W 18.5N 88.8W 19.0N 91.5W 19.1N 94.4W
BAMM 19.1N 85.9W 19.6N 88.1W 20.3N 90.9W 20.4N 93.8W
A98E 19.1N 87.0W 21.2N 90.6W 23.0N 94.7W 24.5N 99.0W
LBAR 20.9N 86.5W 23.9N 88.9W 26.8N 91.5W 27.9N 93.6W
SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 92KTS 95KTS
DSHP 66KTS 55KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 79.7W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Model Guidance.It's crawling 290 at 8 kts.

[krysof]

The Ship has it at 95 knots in 120 hours. That may be over the top, but not out of the realm of possibility.

[Anonymous]

Please tell me looking at this image you expect this future depression to turn into anything even looking at. Maybe I am wrong but unless that dry air leaves there is nothing to worry about. It is too weak to live in that environment and there is another cold front going to move in that area soon as well. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

Actually...with that whole area of moisture around the system...and the upper level winds becoming more favorable, I think it has a decent shot.

[Coredesat]

The Ship has it at 95 knots in 120 hours. That may be over the top, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Based on this, 99L crosses the Yucatan and emerges in the Bay of Campeche. Use Decay SHIPS here.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks to me that the Center is near the NE

You won't be able to see the center at night, as you're only seeing the middle and high clouds. The center is near the southern edge of the convection. I estimated it to be near 16N/81W late this afternoon. It could be identified by looking at small cumulus clouds near the surface, seen in between the middle and high clouds. But you can't see these near-surface cumulus clouds at night, particularly with all the cirrus clouds covering them.

Recon has it estimated at 18 N for the second flight on Thursday. I was a bit surprised they had it that far north.

[Windtalker1]

Looks to me that the Center is near the NE

You won't be able to see the center at night, as you're only seeing the middle and high clouds. The center is near the southern edge of the convection. I estimated it to be near 16N/81W late this afternoon. It could be identified by looking at small cumulus clouds near the surface, seen in between the middle and high clouds. But you can't see these near-surface cumulus clouds at night, particularly with all the cirrus clouds covering them.

Recon has it estimated at 18 N for the second flight on Thursday. I was a bit surprised they had it that far north.

If thats the case than all models should shift more north and east.

[Rainband]

Looks like a Mexico system.