TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cjrciadt]

With the expanded 5 day margain of error every state in the GOM is possible. The Yucatan does not need a drop, more have died from mudslides than from Katrina here in the US. Someone will get an unwelcome guest next week or later.

[Ivanhater]

scorpion ive had it with you......the was for the yucatan not the panhandle.....

[TS Zack]

Sorry Mike..

You are .1 degrees too far West.

Nope, you cannot say its on with the NHC. Get over it! J/K with ya!

Told you they would shift and they are still the East Outlier.

[Windtalker1]

[img=http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/2079/markup24pe.th.gif] Here is my 1st ever Forcast of soon to be Wilma. The High around Florida as of now will break down and the High in the Atlantic will sink to just the East of Wilma. There is also a High to the West of soon to be Wilma which will pull her more Northly by Wednesday. A Cold Front moving into the Gulf by Thursday will turn the Storm NNE then ENE coming across the Florida Keys into the Monroe/Collier County line. From there she will move through NorthWestern Dade County, Central Broward County, East Central Palm Beach and Exit around Jupiter before racing up to the Outer Banks. Comments Welcome.

[artist]

Praxus- just a word of caution - the rulse of the forum don't allow cursing.



Found this from another met ( don't know his name-sorry) that I thought was good re: the early model jumps -

I'd be real weary of biting onto any left adjustment (not that you are of course). The reason why she's shifted in the models (in my opinion) is because Pre-Wilma is a weak entity. She's very susceptible to slight perturbations in successive runs, regarding the nearer term.. Sparing the physics to describe, which will just give us all unnecessary headaches...it's sometimes tough to rap our minds around the concept that t-cyclones behave like a log floating in a river.. The heavier the log, the longer it takes to change the direction of its drift/momentum..

Although path of least resistance is always taken by these systems, if more momentum is stored and providing the counter current isn't too overwhelming (causing shear and such), they do need time to respond. That is why a strong hurricane (a heavier log), will often slow down or even stall completely before resuming a new heading; i.e, while their momentum in a given vector is exhausted. Pre-Wilma is a twig with virtually no momentum - only needed a slight variance in the ridge strength anticipation and she's summarily shunting west, and if those influences were already verifying, she'd certainly verify that way. (we are still talking about the prognostication)

However, in the long run she'll be stronger and the righter course is preferred. I'm fairly confident once she's established herself in truer form, the models will re-establish a righter course....probably sooner once they latch onto a her as a stemwinder. And, a lot of that is timing because the westerlies will be in the beginning stages of change right about the time she gets a social security number from the weather gods.

The fact that the runs are unanimously shifted left may be a bit disconcerting for NNE track enthusiasts.

However, I looked at it...we're talking all of a paltry 3-5dm so it is natural that a weaker gyre would be prone to wobble in track guidance accordingly to such small ridge tweaks... My personal experience in watching these things, if she bombs overnight and has a really strong vertical profile, she'll thumb those ridge ripplets in the model runs thereafter, and their track guidance will easily shift back right; notwithstanding that the climatalogical course for all hurricanes tend to have a right bias given enough time; notwithstanding the synoptics slated to evolve. (not saying she'll bomb of course). The upshot here is that the changes in the westerlies that are expected to impact the area with an opportunity to move her N and NNE, will also effectively disallow too too much left motion...

I was surprised that she did not really take off today... She's got very impressive U/A mechanics working in her favor and copious upper oceanic heat content to feast on... The reason after deeper eval is that she's got most of her convection in her outer bands and these are not allowing convergence to maximize coriolis driven angular momentum to her core; as the convective ingest only spirals a small distance before ascending... That is actually important because some of the ingest by the cyclone is actually being pulled from all directions, which is a disruption to centricity.. (Don't bother; it's not readily observable by sat. I've deduced this from the 5pm discussion and what I've learned in college). But, I have noticed a small but intense sub- -70C cloud top region very near the perceived axis of rotation so we may actually be on the threshold of an implosion - so to speak...

Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 16 2005 10:19 PM)

[boca]

Florida is no longer in the cone and the track keeps on shifting west.Could this be another Miss or LA storm.

[Scorpion]

Good forecast Windtalker.

[Bgator]

[img=http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/2079/markup24pe.th.gif] Here is my 1st ever Forcast of soon to be Wilma. The High around Florida as of now will break down and the High in the Atlantic will sink to just the East of Wilma. There is also a High to the West of soon to be Wilma which will pull her more Northly by Wednesday. A Cold Front moving into the Gulf by Thursday will turn the Storm NNE then ENE coming across the Florida Keys into the Monroe/Collier County line. From there she will move through NorthWestern Dade County, Central Broward County, East Central Palm Beach and Exit around Jupiter before racing up to the Outer Banks. Comments Welcome.

I basically agree with ypur track but a bit further north...I think the models are totally whack and shuld be disregarded...I think Tampa To naples is the best chance!

[gatorcane]

we are in October so a drastic turn to the NE and ENE is very likely with this one. Not a miss/ala storm this time.

[krysof]

Florida is no longer in the cone and the track keeps on shifting west.Could this be another Miss or LA storm.

I really hope not, they had enough already. I hope there is a trough to recurve this TD/Wilma

[Anonymous]

we are in October so a drastic turn to the NE and ENE is very likely with this one. Not a miss/ala storm this time.

I don't know about that yet.

[Windtalker1]

Good forecast Windtalker.

Thank-You

[StormFury]

First of all, windtalker, where do you live? If you live in S. Florida, then I may hint somewhat of a bias. Nonetheless, I still agree in general for a peninsula threat. I don't know what these latest models have been smoking! Anyways, I trust Don Sutherland's commentary about a Florida peninsula landfall. Afterall, this is October...not September. See you later Ivan, Denis, Katrina, Rita, and Emily. Say Hello to Charley, the storm of 1921, Donna, and Isbell! Enough with the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Texas. A new month and synoptic pattern has set up!!!!

[Bgator]

Praxus- just a word of caution - the rulse of the forum don't allow cursing.



Found this from another met ( don't know his name-sorry) that I thought was good re: the early model jumps -

I'd be real weary of biting onto any left adjustment (not that you are of course). The reason why she's shifted in the models (in my opinion) is because Pre-Wilma is a weak entity. She's very susceptible to slight perturbations in successive runs, regarding the nearer term.. Sparing the physics to describe, which will just give us all unnecessary headaches...it's sometimes tough to rap our minds around the concept that t-cyclones behave like a log floating in a river.. The heavier the log, the longer it takes to change the direction of its drift/momentum..

Although path of least resistance is always taken by these systems, if more momentum is stored and providing the counter current isn't too overwhelming (causing shear and such), they do need time to respond. That is why a strong hurricane (a heavier log), will often slow down or even stall completely before resuming a new heading; i.e, while their momentum in a given vector is exhausted. Pre-Wilma is a twig with virtually no momentum - only needed a slight variance in the ridge strength anticipation and she's summarily shunting west, and if those influences were already verifying, she'd certainly verify that way. (we are still talking about the prognostication)

However, in the long run she'll be stronger and the righter course is preferred. I'm fairly confident once she's established herself in truer form, the models will re-establish a righter course....probably sooner once they latch onto a her as a stemwinder. And, a lot of that is timing because the westerlies will be in the beginning stages of change right about the time she gets a social security number from the weather gods.

The fact that the runs are unanimously shifted left may be a bit disconcerting for NNE track enthusiasts.

However, I looked at it...we're talking all of a paltry 3-5dm so it is natural that a weaker gyre would be prone to wobble in track guidance accordingly to such small ridge tweaks... My personal experience in watching these things, if she bombs overnight and has a really strong vertical profile, she'll thumb those ridge ripplets in the model runs thereafter, and their track guidance will easily shift back right; notwithstanding that the climatalogical course for all hurricanes tend to have a right bias given enough time; notwithstanding the synoptics slated to evolve. (not saying she'll bomb of course). The upshot here is that the changes in the westerlies that are expected to impact the area with an opportunity to move her N and NNE, will also effectively disallow too too much left motion...

I was surprised that she did not really take off today... She's got very impressive U/A mechanics working in her favor and copious upper oceanic heat content to feast on... The reason after deeper eval is that she's got most of her convection in her outer bands and these are not allowing convergence to maximize coriolis driven angular momentum to her core; as the convective ingest only spirals a small distance before ascending... That is actually important because some of the ingest by the cyclone is actually being pulled from all directions, which is a disruption to centricity.. (Don't bother; it's not readily observable by sat. I've deduced this from the 5pm discussion and what I've learned in college). But, I have noticed a small but intense sub- -70C cloud top region very near the perceived axis of rotation so we may actually be on the threshold of an implosion - so to speak...

Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 16 2005 10:19 PM)

Who ever that mets is i REALLy like his analysis!

[Swimdude]

I think we should all realize that this really isn't a cone of uncertainty...

It's a BLOB of uncertainty. In other words, no one has any CLUE where it's headed.

[jax]

it's starting to look more and more like a north central gulf storm..

[Brent]

I think we should all realize that this really isn't a cone of uncertainty...

It's a BLOB of uncertainty. In other words, no one has any CLUE where it's headed.

Yes... From the discussion:

DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5... THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

[Windtalker1]

First of all, windtalker, where do you live? If you live in S. Florida, then I may hint somewhat of a bias. Nonetheless, I still agree in general for a peninsula threat. I don't know what these latest models have been smoking! Anyways, I trust Don Sutherland's commentary about a Florida peninsula landfall. Afterall, this is October...not September. See you later Ivan, Denis, Katrina, Rita, and Emily. Say Hello to Charley, the storm of 1921, Donna, and Isbell! Enough with the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Texas. A new month and synoptic pattern has set up!!!!

Why is it that if someone predicts a storm close to where they live it called W%#@#@%*#%g? I went with whats happening with the highs, fronts, time of year ect. If I lived in Montana, I'd have the same forcast. I live in Davie, Florida and I went through Katrina this year. Without power for 4 Days. I do not wish this on anyone...Thank-You!

[Stratosphere747]

I would not rule out this just going into C America and not bothering the CONUS at all...

[arkess7]

MAN WHAT CAN I SAY ?????



WATCH......WAIT

(just trying to blow off some steam)