2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[mantis83]

Having to look for the odd ensemble member to identify development shows just how unfavorable the environment is. To reach 25 named storms, we'd need to see an explosion of storms the next 3 months that we've never seen in the past. Sub-20 looks quite likely. My 17/8/4 isn't looking too bad in our office contest, though I'm hoping for even less activity. Taking another comp day off tomorrow and probably Friday. Enjoying the break in storms.

agreed! i'm not calling for season cancel yet, but if things don't pick up soon.........

[gatorcane]

Not a favorable look on the long-range GFS as we head towards the climo peak across the Western Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean with widespread westerly wind shear, in fact almost looks like the GFS thinks we are in an El Nino. That said, we know these models beyond about a week and sometimes even less can be rather poor in forecasting tropical cyclone genesis as others have noted:

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1825142454762287454

[WeatherBoy2000]

Having to look for the odd ensemble member to identify development shows just how unfavorable the environment is. To reach 25 named storms, we'd need to see an explosion of storms the next 3 months that we've never seen in the past. Sub-20 looks quite likely. My 17/8/4 isn't looking too bad in our office contest, though I'm hoping for even less activity. Taking another comp day off tomorrow and probably Friday. Enjoying the break in storms.

It is a bit ominous for Atlantic activity that the east Pacific has now flared up with four areas of potential development over the next week. Normally the Atlantic and east Pacific basins are in anti-phase which implies not much happening in the Atlantic in the short term at least. I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be another weather trolling year where tropical cyclone behaviour completely defies the climatology signals that have worked over the last 60 years at least.

I wonder if the record-breaking warm Atlantic ssts don't stand out as much atmospherically when like 95% of the world's oceans are well above average. This line of thinking is similar to that of what made the Atlantic perform so much better in light of a strong el nino last year, the strong temp contrast between the Atlantic and enso like you'd usually see with a strong el nino wasn't there. I think if this year really flounders then there should be deeper discussions about how AGW is assuredly messing with our conventional understanding of TC activity. 2024 would mark the third year in a row where the Atlantic doesn't behave as expected from an enso standpoint. Not saying it's going to happen, I'm just putting it out there.

In any case, I think it'll be difficult not to meet the bare minimum for hyperactivity because we're already 50ish ace prior to August 20th. We only need an additional 110 ace to get there.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Despite most of the guidance still coming in rather quiet, I still fail to see any cause for panic when we're well above average in virtually every metric (ACE in particular, which is arguably the most important of all). And before someone suggests looking at the season without Beryl, you can't just arbitrarily omit a storm that likely would not have formed in any other year. I maintain that Beryl was a harbinger for the potential in the Atlantic this year.

Perhaps we won't reach/surpass the 20 NS mark, but ACE-wise we basically just need an average season from here on out to reach the hyperactive threshold. I know expectations are at an all-time high this year given the indicators leading up to this point, but it really is amazing how we go through this same song and dance every year regarding August lulls

[al78]

Having to look for the odd ensemble member to identify development shows just how unfavorable the environment is. To reach 25 named storms, we'd need to see an explosion of storms the next 3 months that we've never seen in the past. Sub-20 looks quite likely. My 17/8/4 isn't looking too bad in our office contest, though I'm hoping for even less activity. Taking another comp day off tomorrow and probably Friday. Enjoying the break in storms.

It is a bit ominous for Atlantic activity that the east Pacific has now flared up with four areas of potential development over the next week. Normally the Atlantic and east Pacific basins are in anti-phase which implies not much happening in the Atlantic in the short term at least. I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be another weather trolling year where tropical cyclone behaviour completely defies the climatology signals that have worked over the last 60 years at least.

I wonder if the record-breaking warm Atlantic ssts don't stand out as much atmospherically when like 95% of the world's oceans are well above average. This line of thinking is similar to that of what made the Atlantic perform so much better in light of a strong el nino last year, the strong temp contrast between the Atlantic and enso like you'd usually see with a strong el nino wasn't there. I think if this year really flounders then there should be deeper discussions about how AGW is assuredly messing with our conventional understanding of TC activity. 2024 would mark the third year in a row where the Atlantic doesn't behave as expected from an enso standpoint. Not saying it's going to happen, I'm just putting it out there.

In any case, I think it'll be difficult not to meet the bare minimum for hyperactivity because we're already 50ish ace prior to August 20th. We only need an additional 110 ace to get there.

Normally it is the difference in SSTs between Nino 34 and the Caribbean Sea and the resultant perturbations to the Walker circulation which enhance or suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through enhancement/suppression of low level trade winds and similar for upper-level westerlies. TSR uses this in its quantitative statistical prediction model. Last year was very active despite a moderate El Nino because, as you say, extremely warm SSTs in the Atlantic offset the effect of El Nino. It is different this year because cold-neutral or weak La Nina conditions should act in cooperation with very warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean Sea SSTs in perturbing the Walker circulation to favour enhanced activity. It is too early to claim the seasonal forecasts are busting as we still have the bulk of the season to come, but given we are approaching the third week of August, I would have expected to see something on the NHC tropical weather outlook around now, as hyperactive seasons that had modest early season activity tended to get going around now.

[Stormlover70]

SAL seems to be surging. Time will tell if it affects the MDR.

[otowntiger]

Having to look for the odd ensemble member to identify development shows just how unfavorable the environment is. To reach 25 named storms, we'd need to see an explosion of storms the next 3 months that we've never seen in the past. Sub-20 looks quite likely. My 17/8/4 isn't looking too bad in our office contest, though I'm hoping for even less activity. Taking another comp day off tomorrow and probably Friday. Enjoying the break in storms.

It is a bit ominous for Atlantic activity that the east Pacific has now flared up with four areas of potential development over the next week. Normally the Atlantic and east Pacific basins are in anti-phase which implies not much happening in the Atlantic in the short term at least. I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be another weather trolling year where tropical cyclone behaviour completely defies the climatology signals that have worked over the last 60 years at least.

I’m sure you mean ‘ominous’ in the good way, lol! As in bad for hurricane development but good in that hurricane development will be or is being suppressed in the western Atlantic basin, right?

[TomballEd]

GFS brings several nice looking waves off Africa, which all weaken and die. Day 7 and Day 10 waves look impressive. Easterly shear isn't their friend. I suspect some ensembles members will show some development with both. (I can see hour 180, and yes, nothing strong, but there are members for both)

Yesterday's Euro weeklies suggest things pick up after September 2nd. I could be wrong, of course, but August probably doesn't get an F storm.

Less scientific, HL&P, 20 years ago, trimmed trees near powerlines every spring, to minimize outages from severe storms and tropical cyclones. CenterPoint, what was left after Reliant was split off, I never saw a crew. Now, I am finally seeing crews trimming trees. Barn door and horses, the Western Gulf is now safe.

The next HGX hurricane will come the year CenterPoint stops caring about tree limbs over powerlines. That is not scientific, it is more like empirical with a very short data set.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

God the water is hot. Hope this pattern hold. The florida waters are jacuzzi temp right now. Thankfully nothing for certain on the models spinning things up

[al78]

Having to look for the odd ensemble member to identify development shows just how unfavorable the environment is. To reach 25 named storms, we'd need to see an explosion of storms the next 3 months that we've never seen in the past. Sub-20 looks quite likely. My 17/8/4 isn't looking too bad in our office contest, though I'm hoping for even less activity. Taking another comp day off tomorrow and probably Friday. Enjoying the break in storms.

It is a bit ominous for Atlantic activity that the east Pacific has now flared up with four areas of potential development over the next week. Normally the Atlantic and east Pacific basins are in anti-phase which implies not much happening in the Atlantic in the short term at least. I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be another weather trolling year where tropical cyclone behaviour completely defies the climatology signals that have worked over the last 60 years at least.

I’m sure you mean ‘ominous’ in the good way, lol! As in bad for hurricane development but good in that hurricane development will be or is being suppressed in the western Atlantic basin, right?

Yes I meant "ominous" from the perspective of the Atlantic hurricane season ambitions to finish on the podium of most active seasons, not ominous from the human/monetary impacts perspective.

[Blown Away]

I’m a believer in the latter part of August atmospheric “switch” that ignites the hurricane season… But from a models perspective, they are 6-7 days from peak season now and really nothing except for a few strong TW’s…

[MarioProtVI]

I’m a believer in the latter part of August atmospheric “switch” that ignites the hurricane season… But from a models perspective, they are 6-7 days from peak season now and really nothing except for a few strong TW’s…

They’ve been very poorly handling TWs this year and only seem to catch onto signals only 3-4 days out.

[Stratton23]

Blown Away id be very careful aboit looking at OP models in the long range, they are not seeing this flip well at all, all of the ensembles have a much different picture for the basin compared to the operational models

[otowntiger]

I’m a believer in the latter part of August atmospheric “switch” that ignites the hurricane season… But from a models perspective, they are 6-7 days from peak season now and really nothing except for a few strong TW’s…

yep, and in a ‘normal’ season this would be surprising but even more so in a season that so many experts were predicting not just an active season, not just a hyper active season but a record breaking season. It all just goes to show you that nature can keep the best prognosticators guessing. It’s obviously about way more than hot water, LaNina MJO, etc. I’m beginning to think there are even as of yet unknown factors at play.

[Stratton23]

its not unknown factors, the waves are simply coming off at a latitude where dry- stable air lurks which kills these waves,thats going to be changing soon when the ITCZ shifts back south, the switch is coming, its no longer an “ IF” its when, because it is coming for sure

[MGC]

All one has to do is look at the mid and low level water vapor satellite images. Tons of dry air across the basin. Models are quite for the next week, perhaps something could pop up? Remainder of season needs to be hyperactive in order to achieve some of the lofty numbers some have predicted. Warm water is just one part of the equation. Perhaps September and October will be different, but I hope not......MGC

[skyline385]

12z EPS is back with the NATL, the 0z was likely an anomaly and I wanted to see if 12z confirmed it which it didnt and considering switch flip is approaching, it should be safe to toss out that run for now.





Similar members on 12z GEFS

[TomballEd]

12z EPS is back with the NATL, the 0z was likely an anomaly and I wanted to see if 12z confirmed it which it didnt and considering switch flip is approaching, it should be safe to toss out that run for now.

https://i.imgur.com/xWsxzaw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/S2PblSJ.png

If random members are popping random storms all over the basin, and many of the 'storms' struggle to get below 1010 mb, than the 50 Euro ensembles aren't really screaming the switch will be thrown soon. At best, conditions will get less hostile in 2 weeks. GFS and Canadian ensembles show shear going from extremely unfavorable to neutral, which this time of year means not terrible. I suspect this is why the Euro weeklies wait until September to start showing TCs.

[skyline385]

12z EPS is back with the NATL, the 0z was likely an anomaly and I wanted to see if 12z confirmed it which it didnt and considering switch flip is approaching, it should be safe to toss out that run for now.

https://i.imgur.com/xWsxzaw.gif

https://i.imgur.com/S2PblSJ.png

If random members are popping random storms all over the basin, and many of the 'storms' struggle to get below 1010 mb, than the 50 Euro ensembles aren't really screaming the switch will be thrown soon. At best, conditions will get less hostile in 2 weeks. GFS and Canadian ensembles show shear going from extremely unfavorable to neutral, which this time of year means not terrible. I suspect this is why the Euro weeklies wait until September to start showing TCs.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbHkza2NxNjd5azJ3ZWh4MXBxYmRpdG1zZWUwZXB4MWJpOWl5NzNqMCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/k4oq5dRqkulzo9YP1i/giphy.gif

Conditions near switch flip are generally volatile and change very quickly which is models always struggle to catch it. They show some activity and then as the date approaches, will all light up. Remember these are numerical models which can only forecast based on current conditions, that's why every year they suddenly light up as the switch flips. Personally, I would not put too much faith into shear plots as sign that switch flip is not near because that is just running off current conditions for initialization.