TD 10...Back Again

[dwg71]

Just getting back from a double-check of every bit of data that I could scape up. Haven't found anything so far that changes anything significantly enough to alter the forecast. Had actually looked for a solution that would bring the center southward through the Straits. The models pretty much dismiss that possibility. I haven't, but am not finding anything that would support that solution. What the main issue seems to be is TD 10's current heading, which appears to be WNW as described by the NHC. The NWS also appears to be on point regarding the trough. The GFS looks pretty good too. Not much error to be found there. NAM is also pretty error free. I like combining both of these solutions.

Haven't hit the UKMET but have to believe that they too are conforming into a consensus. Basically, I haven't found any error with any of the models, the NHC or the NWS. Someone mentioned that the NHC hadn't found a circulation center, but usually the first recon is subject to a lot of error. Anyway, I'm sure the NHC will stay on top of it.

If there are any errant models or forecasts issuing from either the NHC or NWS, I haven't found it. They look pretty good to me.

Exactly how do you check a model for errors? You cant be serious with these posts, unless you've invented the flux capacitor - you know the thing that makes time travel possible - and went out 7 days and came back with Biff.

[dwg71]

"What the main issue seems to be is TD 10's current heading"

The main issue is that TD 10 doesnt exist, and hasnt existed for quite some time now.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, look at the Dvorak #s:

18/1745 UTC 18.7N 59.1W TOO WEAK

But looking back, the numbers on the storm have gone from 2.0 to too weak back to 1.0 in consecutive cycles.

[mahicks]

[clfenwi]

Just getting back from a double-check of every bit of data that I could scape up. Haven't found anything so far that changes anything significantly enough to alter the forecast. Had actually looked for a solution that would bring the center southward through the Straits. The models pretty much dismiss that possibility. I haven't, but am not finding anything that would support that solution. What the main issue seems to be is TD 10's current heading, which appears to be WNW as described by the NHC. The NWS also appears to be on point regarding the trough. The GFS looks pretty good too. Not much error to be found there. NAM is also pretty error free. I like combining both of these solutions.

Haven't hit the UKMET but have to believe that they too are conforming into a consensus. Basically, I haven't found any error with any of the models, the NHC or the NWS. Someone mentioned that the NHC hadn't found a circulation center, but usually the first recon is subject to a lot of error. Anyway, I'm sure the NHC will stay on top of it.

If there are any errant models or forecasts issuing from either the NHC or NWS, I haven't found it. They look pretty good to me.

Exactly how do you check a model for errors? You cant be serious with these posts, unless you've invented the flux capacitor - you know the thing that makes time travel possible - and went out 7 days and came back with Biff.

You know I'm in a cheerful mood when I write up something that could be construed as defending Elysium, but I digress...

...You go about checking for errors in models by checking the initializations/analyses against actual observations (or if it is in between cycles, checking the six hour forecast against actual conditions). HPC's model diagnostic discussions contain a lot of this sort of error checking. An example from the current one:

THE NAM IS GENERALLY HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5
RIDGING OVER S CNTRL AND S WRN CONUS. THE NAM IS ALSO UP TO 65 M
TOO HIGH WITH HTS OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS. FOR
INSTANCE...THE NAM IS 5 C TOO WARM WITH THE H85 TEMP AT TOP AND
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT H5 HT ERROR...UP TO 45 M TOO HIGH...IS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VLY WITH THE TROF OVER THE REGION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another example of error checking (that just occurred to me) is looking out for convective/grid scale feedback issues. That's where the model's physics aren't handling convection correctly. The result is phantom storms ending up in the forecast. GFS is notorious for this. Several runs back in June spun up phantom storms in the Yucatan because of it.

[superfly]

every body who is bashing elysium(if for some reason he happens to be correct) will be eating crow through November

Not really if you've read the rest of his "forecasts." Even a blind squirrel finds the nut sometimes. He's bound to hit on one of his off-base forecasts once in a while, but that doesn't make him any more credible.

[caribepr]

Just getting back from a double-check of every bit of data that I could scape up. Haven't found anything so far that changes anything significantly enough to alter the forecast. Had actually looked for a solution that would bring the center southward through the Straits. The models pretty much dismiss that possibility. I haven't, but am not finding anything that would support that solution. What the main issue seems to be is TD 10's current heading, which appears to be WNW as described by the NHC. The NWS also appears to be on point regarding the trough. The GFS looks pretty good too. Not much error to be found there. NAM is also pretty error free. I like combining both of these solutions.

Haven't hit the UKMET but have to believe that they too are conforming into a consensus. Basically, I haven't found any error with any of the models, the NHC or the NWS. Someone mentioned that the NHC hadn't found a circulation center, but usually the first recon is subject to a lot of error. Anyway, I'm sure the NHC will stay on top of it.

If there are any errant models or forecasts issuing from either the NHC or NWS, I haven't found it. They look pretty good to me.

Exactly how do you check a model for errors? You cant be serious with these posts, unless you've invented the flux capacitor - you know the thing that makes time travel possible - and went out 7 days and came back with Biff.

You know I'm in a cheerful mood when I write up something that could be construed as defending Elysium, but I digress...

...You go about checking for errors in models by checking the initializations/analyses against actual observations (or if it is in between cycles, checking the six hour forecast against actual conditions). HPC's model diagnostic discussions contain a lot of this sort of error checking. An example from the current one:

THE NAM IS GENERALLY HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE H5
RIDGING OVER S CNTRL AND S WRN CONUS. THE NAM IS ALSO UP TO 65 M
TOO HIGH WITH HTS OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS. FOR
INSTANCE...THE NAM IS 5 C TOO WARM WITH THE H85 TEMP AT TOP AND
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT H5 HT ERROR...UP TO 45 M TOO HIGH...IS OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VLY WITH THE TROF OVER THE REGION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another example of error checking (that just occurred to me) is looking out for convective/grid scale feedback issues. That's where the model's physics aren't handling convection correctly. The result is phantom storms ending up in the forecast. GFS is notorious for this. Several runs back in June spun up phantom storms in the Yucatan because of it.

Good for you and your cheerful mood! Thanks for the info.

[Sanibel]

Refiring just east of my center...


- Sanibel...

[storms in NC]

Refiring just east of my center...


- Sanibel...

If look you can see it ALL coming together

[BonesXL]

Guys, Elysum has his right to his opinions...leave him alone.....Jeez...mods can you jump in to control the opinion bashing a bit thanks.....

[SouthFloridawx]

Refiring just east of my center...


- Sanibel...

If look you can see it ALL coming together

What do you mean?

please explain....

[BensonTCwatcher]

Sanibel, where was your new center? I had it at 20.0 N 63.3 W or so?

[elysium]

Well, most of what was just posted is beyond my level of knowledge. When checking for model errors, it may be a little primitive, but basically I just review the satellite imagery to see if the models are starting off correctly. Sometimes one or the other model initiates from something that, at the time of initiation, is clearly incorrect. I've even detected error on occasion, when a certain model initiates the position of a storm that is clearly not in the position as is being stated by the models; sometimes even having the storm traveling in a direction that it clearly is not traveling in at the time of initiation. But whew....I could never even begin to detect model error as you are describing in the above posted thread. That's way beyond me.

By the way, the remnant center of TD 10 is now showing up clearly on the IR floater. From what I can detect, it is beginning to collect additional convection. Incidently, the NHC says that we will not begin to see real strengthening for 48 hrs., however, as TD 10 enters into the better environment as forecasted by the NHC, many of the more discerning posters here may begin posting threads indicating that regeneration has begun, and it doesn't appear as though it will take a full 48 hrs. before TD 10 begins entering into a more conducive environment.

By the way, TD 10 is actually entering a very marginally more favorable environment with each passing frame as it draws closer to the environment forecasted by the NHC. The next couple of hours may get very interesting.

[storms in NC]

Refiring just east of my center...


- Sanibel...

If look you can see it ALL coming together

What do you mean?

please explain....

Look at all the moisture to the west side of old TD10

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[fci]

Guys, Elysum has his right to his opinions...leave him alone.....Jeez...mods can you jump in to control the opinion bashing a bit thanks.....

Bones:
Obviously you have not read many of E's forecasts or you would not be stepping up to defend.
Go back and read the outlandish posts that have piled up under this author's name and think again.

Although I guess if we see a the beginnings of a Major Hurricane in about 9 hours or so, we're all wrong.

[elysium]

For those of you that may have missed it, it was the most beautiful break through of low level shear by a building ridge as you will ever likely experience on satellite imagery. We are down to only minor trace level shear to TD 10's west, and you can still see this process now if you look at the Caribbean view. Looks like the environment is setting up exactly as forecasted by the NHC, if not sooner. Shouldn't be much longer now.

[jabber]

That I like.... I even got caught up with it.....

[elysium]

This is it!! Please, everyone go to the NHC satellite site and click onto floater 1, shortwave or IR.

[wzrgirl1]

This is it!! Please, everyone go to the NHC satellite site and click onto floater 1, shortwave or IR.

send a link please

[dgparent]

Can't anyone just have a opinion ? It is not like he is on the national news is it ? A long time ago there was a guy who told everyone the world was round, they laughed at him and shunned him, wonder what they would say now ?