TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

Bgator - I thought it explained it so well! Glad you enjoyed it too. According to him (her?) the models should jump back.

[boca]

Do you think the models are on crack given the time of year or are they on to something. How can the models change so much in just 24 hours.

[markymark8]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

[StormFury]

The models are on Oxy Contin!

[Brent]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

Uh... it's likely going to be a tropical storm in the next few hours. Look at satellite.

and from the NHC:

EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

[texasweatherwatcher]

[jkt21787]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

Uh... it's likely going to be a tropical storm in the next few hours. Look at satellite.

and from the NHC:

EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

He obviously got a completely different 11 pm advisory than the rest of us.

[boca]

Its possible the models received bad data.

[yoda]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

Uh... it's likely going to be a tropical storm in the next few hours. Look at satellite.

and from the NHC:

EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

He obviously got a completely different 11 pm advisory than the rest of us.

The NHC is the hurricane center, and if its not a TS at 11, then it isn't. It will be soon, just not now.

[El Nino]

Lot of moist air on the eastern side and dry air to the NW side is retrogressing. Very deep convection around the center. Really impressive ! I forecast a good intensification tomorrow !

Let the fun begins !

[yoda]

Its possible the models received bad data.

Only if NCEP states as such. If they don't.. then its good data.

[jkt21787]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

Uh... it's likely going to be a tropical storm in the next few hours. Look at satellite.

and from the NHC:

EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

He obviously got a completely different 11 pm advisory than the rest of us.

The NHC is the hurricane center, and if its not a TS at 11, then it isn't. It will be soon, just not now.

His orginal post, however, said that the 11 pm advisory (from NHC I assume) made him wonder if the storm was actually being overhyped and won't turn into a bigger system, which was absolutely not the tone of the discussion I read.

[Stormcenter]

I would not rule out this just going into C America and not bothering the CONUS at all...

T

That's what everyone was hoping Katrina would have done but didn't so I would say the likelyhood is there that this will be yet another U.S. landing storm.

[yoda]

The 11 pm advisory has made me wonder if this thing is going to do anything. The pressure is still 1001mbs and alot of dry air than expected has gotten into the Depression and not to mention the NHC says if and when it turns into a Tropical Storm in the latest advisory. You can see on infrared it has alot of dry air in the system . I think there is a possibility of a little more hype to this storm.

Uh... it's likely going to be a tropical storm in the next few hours. Look at satellite.

and from the NHC:

EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

He obviously got a completely different 11 pm advisory than the rest of us.

The NHC is the hurricane center, and if its not a TS at 11, then it isn't. It will be soon, just not now.

His orginal post, however, said that the 11 pm advisory (from NHC I assume) made him wonder if the storm would do any strengthening, which was absolutely not the tone of the discussion I read.

Ok... got it now!

[gotoman38]

REMEMBER: This season has been unlikely to follow climatalogical (historical) patterns to this point.... IMO following something else (computer models? expert analysis?) is the best planning.

[markymark8]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21

[jax]

most of the models are now suggesting a more northly track...
possible North central gulf... again... wow

[jkt21787]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

Thats pretty definitive sentence there, IMO. The other sentence I believe was in the same format in previous advisories today.

5 pm in fact...
"IF IT DOES SO...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933." Actually only "IF" there, no "WHEN", so it seems more definitive in this latest advisory for sure.

[yoda]

most of the models are now suggesting a more northly track...
possible North central gulf... again... wow

Um.. not the 0z Guidance...

[Ivanhater]

here we go, 00z gfs rolling in...tomorrow