2015 Global model runs discussion

[WPBWeather]

Per the Climate Prediction Center

Code RED in the ATL thru Sept. 22
Code PEPPERMINT in the ATL thru Sept. 29


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... h_full.png

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13m13 minutes ago Atlanta, GA

Impressive convection off S Atlantic coast to devleop. Outlined for clients on weatherbell as possible mischief maker

[LarryWx]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13m13 minutes ago Atlanta, GA

Impressive convection off S Atlantic coast to devleop. Outlined for clients on weatherbell as possible mischief maker

Similarly to the CMC, NAM, and NAVGEM, I often take JB somewhat with a grain of salt though not to as large an extent since I do think his ideas are usually worth keeping in the back of one's mind as a possibility being that he will sometimes score a win when others are quiet. By the way, he just was harping on the area around the former 94L (western GOM) ever since the Euro was showing hurricane development there last week. It ended up not becoming a TC. He doesn't come close to always being too bullish, but he often ends up being that way in retrospect.

I've been saying since late last week that I feel that the Grace remnants have only about a 10% chance of regeneration into a TC either in the GOM or off of the SE coast due to shear and the lack of development on most reliable models' runs. However, to be fair, a lot of that current mess off of the SE coast right now is not a direct descendent of Grace IMO. It is a rather complicated mess that is largely currently nontropical and is more of a nontropical trough. The direct Grace remnants are currently in the E GOM as has been predicted by model consensus since late last week.

Even if there is no actual TC genesis near the SE CONUS, there could very well end up being some areas of very heavy rain this week over FL, SE GA, and the coastal Carolina's. I imagine that a highly sheared subtropical development cannot be ruled out.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I guess it's the general consensus:

but the general
consensus is that the upper level trough is forecast to remain
across the Florida Peninsula with a surface low slowly forming
east of the Carolina's coast over the weekend...with scattered
showers/thunderstorms forecast across South Florida and regional
waters.

[Alyono]

MU and EC are hinting at something in the Caribbean or southern Gulf next weekend

[gatorcane]

I was wondering if the GFS was on crack as it was in the long-range but guess not. The GFS is slower and MUCH stronger with this system

Here is the 12Z Euro:



Here is the 12Z GFS at the end of the run way out in the long-range with an intensifying hurricane moving slowly north in the NW Caribbean. The cyclone originates from some low that forms off Belize around 240 hours

[Hurricaneman]

I was wondering if the GFS was on crack as it was in the long-range but guess not. The GFS is slower and MUCH stronger with this system

Here is the 12Z Euro:

http://i.imgur.com/3mtBuuV.gif

Here is the 12Z GFS at the end of the run way out in the long-range with an intensifying hurricane moving slowly north in the NW Caribbean.

http://i.imgur.com/kds5ob3.png

That looks like it could be trouble for Bermuda if it happens and 95L is nearing 60W

The Caribbean system could be possible trouble especially if shear stays low in that area

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[Alyono]

the MU has an eastward movement of that system, not really northerly. makes sense as it has a decent cold front just north

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I notice is that the Euro forms something from the monsoon trough sooner than the GFS but its coming to that time of year for that type of system and if ENSO 1-2 cool off like it seems to be doing that area could be prime

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WeatherEmperor]

What does the wind shear look like in the NW Caribbean?


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[Hurricaneman]

What does the wind shear look like in the NW Caribbean?


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its about 5 to 10kts currently which is quite favorable if a disturbance gets into that area and the models. The GFS seems to form some kind of anticyclone after 10 days with major shear just north of it after major shear from 60hrs to 240hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[PTrackerLA]

Still prepping for the Euro "model-cane" from last week to make landfall here tomorrow. I no longer trust that model outside of 5 days when it comes to the tropics.

[Hurricaneman]

around day 8 on the 18zGFS it seems as though moisture is piling up in the NW Caribbean which seems to have moved up in time from the 12zGFS which it was around day 10

the 18zGFS shows a closed isobar at 204hrs which moved up in time the possible development in the NW Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Yep the GFS is bringing in the timeframe the past few runs. In the 18Z run, it doesn't bring it to a hurricane like some of the last couple of runs but shows a low forming in the NW Caribbean nonetheless and lifting to the north, similar to the ECMWF around the same time. Question is as we look at the next runs, will we see increasing model support and if so how strong will they make this?

[blp]

Broad model agreement on the area in SW Caribbean. GFS, Euro, CMC and Navgem are picking up on this to varying degrees. The Euro looks the fastest while the GFS is now later. The CMC of course is the strongest and it hints to origins coming from an EPAC crossover which could be possible.

Looks like major factor will be land interaction with Yucatan which keeps it in check.

It is amazing how much little confidence exists with the models. Lots of Model crow going around this year. Funny how our Fantasy run timeframes have now gone down to beyond 5 days where it used to be beyond 10 days.

Let's see what happens.

[tolakram]

I'm going to go out on a limb (fairly strong branch really) and say as this gets closer to reality and the shear forecasts in each model improve development will be scaled back or dropped. We shall see. Any other year and this would probably be a good indication something will develop.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly I'm in the minority, but I think the GFS has made some progress with it's upgrade. It's cut back on false alarms somewhat, but then again it's gotten worse with overdoing intensity of typhoons.

ECMWF has also become more bullish due to increased resolution and it's low bias in genesis has turned into a high one. It's almost as if the ECMWF/GFS have flipped flopped roles from years past.

[blp]

Honestly I'm in the minority, but I think the GFS has made some progress with it's upgrade. It's cut back on false alarms somewhat, but then again it's gotten worse with overdoing intensity of typhoons.

ECMWF has also become more bullish due to increased resolution and it's low bias in genesis has turned into a high one. It's almost as if the ECMWF/GFS have flipped flopped roles from years past.

Yeah that is a good take. I think the roles have reversed to some degree.

I am interested to see how the GFS does in the SW Caribbean now late in the year. It has been abysmal in that area last several years spinning up phantom storms for several runs in a row. I hope they improved that because that was extremely annoying.

[LarryWx]

ECMWF has also become more bullish due to increased resolution and it's low bias in genesis has turned into a high one. It's almost as if the ECMWF/GFS have flipped flopped roles from years past.

I noticed the change in the Euro to becoming too bullish in 2010 and I recall an increase in resolution then. There were several storms that year that were handled poorly in the too bullish way on a number of runs, with Fiona being a total disaster based on a good number of runs. On one run, it had the lowest pressure down to 908 mb and going into the Gulf/threatening the Conus. (I have a file on this subject.) A good number of other runs were below 925 mb. It ended up being just a TS at 998 mb that didn't even come close to the conus!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Steve]

12z GFS running now. 6z GFS ends with what appears to be a tropical or subtropical system merging with a frontal system and deepening before hitting Connecticut. Obviously I'm not trusting a 16 day forecast or the end of any GFS run at this point. But it was notable on that model.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gf ... precip.gif