Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Frank2]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde

Actually it looks like dry air is keeping things fairly stable in that area right now...

P.S. Look for a possible change in the models later today and tonight - perhaps not as aggressive as the past day or two...

[cycloneye]

114 hours.

[ColinDelia]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde Islands. On the other hand maybe I've just been staring at satellite loops too long... Thoughts please...

SFT

The GFS is initializing with a 1012 LOW just SW of the Cape Verde islands on the 12z run

[cycloneye]

150 hours.

Looks like it will miss the northern Leewards.

[vacanechaser]

here is the 850mb for the 12z






and the 500mb







Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

174 hours.

And there it goes to fishland. Is well NE of 20N-60W.

[Steve H.]

Don't speal too soon Luis, it would almost seem that the western Atlantic ridge could build after the Low departs the NE. I think the East - west flow will slow down after that.

[cycloneye]

Long range. Well,there it goes east of Bermuda and up to near Newfoundland.

[MWatkins]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde

Actually it looks like dry air is keeping things fairly stable in that area right now...

P.S. Look for a possible change in the models later today and tonight - perhaps not as aggressive as the past day or two...

What tools are you using to arrive at that conclusion? Moisture is abundant in the Caribbean and east of 45W in the deep tropics, and this area is forecast to expand westward in the coming days. "Moisture" is not in the decline.

Second, looking at the SAL analysis, there is almost no dust discernable south of 20 north, and especially east of 40W. In fact, the SAL is falling apart across most of the tropical Atlantic...the thermodynamics are changing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

These are clear signs that enviornmental moisture is on the increase...the change in the SAL is especially dramatic over the last 5 days.

There is a reason the models are starting to ramp up...and looking at the early run of the 12Z GFS the model very similar to the last run.

The system moves much more slowly than the 0Z run, but that has zero to do with moisture...

MW

[floridasun78]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde

Actually it looks like dry air is keeping things fairly stable in that area right now...

P.S. Look for a possible change in the models later today and tonight - perhaps not as aggressive as the past day or two...

are you one go to topic that season is over??? because all time you disagree on models run alway say not thing going come out of wave i think this going to be playmaker next few days i feel like gfs is into something byweekend

[cycloneye]

Meanwhile, this has been showing up in the long range for a few runs, Eastern Caribbean threat. But we know the drill about long range.

[ColinDelia]

30 L really seems to have busted up the SAL (link in MWatkins post) - and now a big area of moisture is pushing offshore

[vacanechaser]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde

Actually it looks like dry air is keeping things fairly stable in that area right now...

P.S. Look for a possible change in the models later today and tonight - perhaps not as aggressive as the past day or two...

Dr. Rick Knabb said earlier that there is a low at the surface in the area that the gfs is showing it now in the 12z... so there is something there if of course you believe in Dr. Knabb... I would tend to listen to him more at this point.. especially since nhc has not outlooked the area yet... and i dont see the lack of moisture either... the low would be developing in the area southwest of the islands, in the area of convection, south of 15 north... sal is on the decrease as well... just not seeing the moisture issue you bring up...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

The 12z GFS is a big fish, I'm betting the 12z models all agree on a fish this time round, pretty obvious the troughing is still there.

[Frank2]

Yes, I heard Dr. Knabb say that too (before 8 this morning), but the area really doesn't look very impressive at all - the wave/low that moved off Africa on Sunday was much better organized, but not so with the current waves, though the wave about to exit the mainland has had very strong (but unorganized) convection for the past couple of days...

Frank

P.S. KWT - I happened to be watching Jamie Oliver cook a fish dish last evening, so fish is the word (lol)...

[ronjon]

The 12z GFS is a big fish, I'm betting the 12z models all agree on a fish this time round, pretty obvious the troughing is still there.

To say the least the GFS has been rather inconsistent the last several runs, eh? This run develops another low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast which breaks down the atlantic ridge almost overnight - hence you see the low move almost due north near 50W - not sure I buy it since yestersdays runs showed rather stout ridging actually building westward with time. Something is going on with the major pattern that is causing GFS to swing wildly (or its just that the GFS, even with its new code modifications, is just not that good). The Euro in contrast has been the most consistent so it'll probably recurve as you say KWT - though still more than 10 days out so the jury's still out.

[floridasun78]

i starting to think frank looking forward to 2011 season he put white flag on this season

[x-y-no]

To say the least the GFS has been rather inconsistent the last several runs, eh? This run develops another low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast which breaks down the atlantic ridge almost overnight - hence you see the low move almost due north near 50W - not sure I buy it since yestersdays runs showed rather stout ridging actually building westward with time. Something is going on with the major pattern that is causing GFS to swing wildly (or its just that the GFS, even with its new code modifications, is just not that good). The Euro in contrast has been the most consistent so it'll probably recurve as you say KWT - though still more than 10 days out so the jury's still out.

I still don't have a feel for the biases of the new GFS. Certainly the old one was pretty consistent about losing mid-level ridging too fast. That may or may not be the case with the new one.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC:

A hurricane in the MDR moving west but at the end turns WNW.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SoupBone]

My eyes could be deceiving me but based on the looks of things on visable satellite I think a circulation might be trying to get going around 16N and 26W, just west of the Cape Verde

Actually it looks like dry air is keeping things fairly stable in that area right now...

P.S. Look for a possible change in the models later today and tonight - perhaps not as aggressive as the past day or two...

What tools are you using to arrive at that conclusion? Moisture is abundant in the Caribbean and east of 45W in the deep tropics, and this area is forecast to expand westward in the coming days. "Moisture" is not in the decline.

Second, looking at the SAL analysis, there is almost no dust discernable south of 20 north, and especially east of 40W. In fact, the SAL is falling apart across most of the tropical Atlantic...the thermodynamics are changing:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

These are clear signs that enviornmental moisture is on the increase...the change in the SAL is especially dramatic over the last 5 days.

There is a reason the models are starting to ramp up...and looking at the early run of the 12Z GFS the model very similar to the last run.

The system moves much more slowly than the 0Z run, but that has zero to do with moisture...

MW

The SAL has been back and forth for the last week or so. Last week it look really weak but even just a few days ago it was pretty decent. I'm curious when the SAL usually tapers off because it has been one of the players so far this season. Any idea when it usually weakens to the point of being a non player?