2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

[MHC Tracking]

00z ensemble guidance suite has a battle of the models. ECENS keeps this as a "dry wave" until north of the islands, then develops it into a tropical cyclone (a significant one on some individual ensembles), while GEFS shows a weak low which quickly dissipates as it heads into cool SST's and the SAL north of Cabo Verde, ala 91L in August 2021. Late July-early August climo would suggest the second option seems more likely, but the environment north of the islands appears favorable enough for development on the ECMWF oper, if the wave survives to there. Would lean slightly towards the ECENS solution in terms of formation, but the intensity is likely overdone.

[SFLcane]

That's a nuclear upper pattern in the SW Atlantic on the Euro!

[SFLcane]

In fact The 200 hPa wind is definitely similar to that I hate to say 1992. If something stays together look out.

[SFLcane]

Euro has about 90% probability of a TD near Africa and about 20-25 percent for TS near the islands which sure is interesting this far out. We will see if other models come onboard.

[aspen]

Euro has about 90% probability of a TD near Africa and about 20-25 percent for TS near the islands which sure is interesting this far out. We will see if other models come onboard.

I think the Euro was the first to develop Bonnie, but for the first time ever, was too far north and underestimated the strength of the ridge. Maybe this ends up as a similar scenario and the wave ends up further south in reality, either running over all the Greater Antilles like Laura, Fred, and Grace, or ending up as the Caribbean runner Bonnie was thought to be.

[captainbarbossa19]

Yikes if this verifies.

[Wampadawg]

Is the 12 GFS trying spin up a small TS in Texas coast the first week of August?

[captainbarbossa19]

Is the 12 GFS trying spin up a small TS in Texas coast the first week of August?

Looks like it. It appears even the GFS is starting to pick up on potentially more favorable conditions.

[aspen]

12z Euro is a tad stronger and has it recurve into Bermuda.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro is a tad stronger and has it recurve into Bermuda.

Reminds me a little of Gert (2017), but further east. A lot of time to watch this though and a lot can change.

[tolakram]

I am enjoying this banter.



Ha, and a little more substance

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1550917737509228545

[gatorcane]

I am enjoying this banter.

https://i.imgur.com/Ej8gcKT.png

Ha, and a little more substance

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1550917737509228545?s=20&t=JGBYCd__5CtJVSqup4mN5g

Interesting that the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensemble) and TVCA (model consensus - AVNI, EGRI, HWFI, EMHI, CTCI, EMNI) has a better forecasting skill than the NHC (OFCI) by day 5. In other words computers did better than humans in 2021. Makes you wonder if the NHC forecast should lean more on those two for 2022 forecasts. Also it sure would be nice to have access to the FSSE. Looks like a great model.

[Nimbus]

I am enjoying this banter.

https://i.imgur.com/Ej8gcKT.png

Ha, and a little more substance

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1550917737509228545?s=20&t=JGBYCd__5CtJVSqup4mN5g

Interesting that the FSSE (Florida State Super Ensemble) and TVCA (model consensus - AVNI, EGRI, HWFI, EMHI, CTCI, EMNI) has a better forecasting skill than the NHC (OFCI) by day 5. In other words computers did better than humans in 2021. Makes you wonder if the NHC forecast should lean more on those two for 2022 forecasts. Also it sure would be nice to have access to the FSSE. Looks like a great model.

The discrepancy is more noticeable in the 36 hour window which is when the official warnings have to be made.
So it might not be a forecasting skill issue as much as it is erring to the side of safe public awareness and evacuation issues..

[floridasun]

is gfs good models without ghost storms

[InfernoFlameCat]

is gfs good models without ghost storms

Yeah, it is a pretty good model. It rarely misses storm genesis.

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GFS barely develops the EPAC orange but develops a potent EPAC hurricane in early August long-range, but it also interestingly shows a rather weak but noticeable disturbance early next month in the GoM before hitting Texas; the disturbance seems to originate from that Euro's dry wave.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro doesn't have anything.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS wakes up and is bigtime. This is from tropical wave that will emerge Africa later today.

[cycloneye]

Before the wave develops in GOM, it brings some rainy and squally weather to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.