TD 10...Back Again

[Zadok]

Convection is building with each frame.

[Sanibel]

Weakly flaring remnant center near 20.1N-64.3W

[SouthFloridawx]

Just a little more shear to get through.

I'm with you on this one for some reason. I kind of just want to see a lot of people eat some

[mahicks]

How is it that there is almost 50 pages on a degenerate tropical wave that has been "forecast" to develop constantly for te past 72hrs? I mean, I think that it'll go again, but I'm just amazed at what a bunch of bored people can do. Isn't storm2k great?

why??....Because If I didn't post about this, I would have to talk to my wife..LOL...

And...For this very reason, Storm2K ROCKS!

[mahicks]

Convection is building with each frame.

Yeah, I said the same thing about a few Cells that came across the GOM into the Big Bend last week...But without a LCC, it not a Cyclone and nothing more than a weak low.

[BensonTCwatcher]

How is it that there is almost 50 pages on a degenerate tropical wave that has been "forecast" to develop constantly for te past 72hrs? I mean, I think that it'll go again, but I'm just amazed at what a bunch of bored people can do. Isn't storm2k great?

guilty but your right...

[elysium]

Nice picture Zadok. The floater at the NHC site might even show it a little more clearly. This part of storm watching is really the very best. After the cyclone generates, it's a little anticlimactic because at that point everything becomes much more predictable. Watching these little guys battle through shear and pulse in and out of development offers a far more challenging opportunity to make the correct call, and it helps greatly in developing your forecasting skills.

Tracking the remnant TD 10 is interesting if not for the possibility of its entering into a more conducive environment for development, then instead because of the result of what follows when it does develop. Often times these type storms are positioned well outside the area of interest, are truly are boring and uneventful. This could never be said of the remnant TD 10. It is well worth watching.

[fci]

Nice picture Zadok. The floater at the NHC site might even show it a little more clearly. This part of storm watching is really the very best. After the cyclone generates, it's a little anticlimactic because at that point everything becomes much more predictable. Watching these little guys battle through shear and pulse in and out of development offers a far more challenging opportunity to make the correct call, and it helps greatly in developing your forecasting skills.

Tracking the remnant TD 10 is interesting if not for the possibility of its entering into a more conducive environment for development, then instead because of the result of what follows when it does develop. Often times these type storms are positioned well outside the area of interest, are truly are boring and uneventful. This could never be said of the remnant TD 10. It is well worth watching.

and in little less than 8 hours will shock the world as it is on its way to be a historic major hurricane!

[boca]

I give it 7 hours to be a major.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Reds poping out on IR, thats more than I have seen since the beginning.

The insanity continues...prepare for a full and extended verbose report from you-know-who

[Air Force Met]

I give it 7 hours to be a major.

Please add a /sarcasm tag so people won't think you've lost it...

[boca]

Ok Air force met no problem.That was sarcasm at its finest.

[ROCK]

Nice picture Zadok. The floater at the NHC site might even show it a little more clearly. This part of storm watching is really the very best. After the cyclone generates, it's a little anticlimactic because at that point everything becomes much more predictable. Watching these little guys battle through shear and pulse in and out of development offers a far more challenging opportunity to make the correct call, and it helps greatly in developing your forecasting skills.

Tracking the remnant TD 10 is interesting if not for the possibility of its entering into a more conducive environment for development, then instead because of the result of what follows when it does develop. Often times these type storms are positioned well outside the area of interest, are truly are boring and uneventful. This could never be said of the remnant TD 10. It is well worth watching.

Ignore the bashing. Your getting better at this. good job...

[scogor]

How about if we just ignore ex-10 for a day or so...this protracted vigil for whatever it was, is and may/may not be has exceeded my level of patience!!

[Scorpion]

How about we close this thread and not speak of ex TD10 for the next day and then when we return it will be a Cat 5 .

[vbhoutex]

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above. Please refer to the disclaimer. this is not an official forecast nor is it endorsed by any professional meteorological organization, including storm2k.org. For official info refer to the NHC or the NWS.


In response to the request for data;
The NWS is shifting from a position that it had taken earlier on the possibility of a trough impacting the ridge. Previously, the NWS had forecasted a trough exiting the east coast that would push back the ridge. If that forecast had held up, TD 10 would have needed to slow down in forward speed before rebuilding for reasons kinda too complex to get into. Anyway, now that the NWS is forecasting the trough to be sheared off which will allow the ridge to build in underneath; which is also being forecasted by the NWS; this greatly impacts the future forecast on TD 10. The more credible models will unquestionably shift further to the south or left. Also, TD 10 has never looked better. This system is on the way up, and there will not be a trough to contend with in 4 or 5 days that might have lead to slowing down of forward speed and some weakening. So a complication that had been in the forecast on day 4 and 5 is no longer present.

And look at the GFS. The 96 through 144 hr. scenario depicted in the 12Z-18Z is setting up to take place in 48 through 96 hrs instead. Also just take a look at the trough itself on the satellite imagery. It's already east west oriented. Where is the forecasted positive tilt? Look just underneath the trough. Already you can actually see the high building in underneath. Look at the sub-tropical ridge.

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development. Rarely can a course heading be so predictable as TD 10's WNW heading over the next several days and longer. The Florida east coast is very much under the gun of a major hurricane threat. This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong. All other opinions are encouraged to debate this forecast, and I hope that the Florida Keys do not suffer a hurricane. That's what this is shaping up to be, however. Please prove this forecast in error. I hope that it is wrong.

You are right!!! This is not a forecast. Nor is it solid data to answer the questions I posed. It is only your opinions and nothing more. I SEE NO SOLID DATA!!!

And FYI, I have looked at the sat loops on two different sats and geuss what? I still see the same thing NHC does-a wave!!!!!

Nice try but I still don't see any solid data in anything you have posted.

[vbhoutex]

This is not a forecast, it is an answer to a question arising from my unofficial forecast above. Please refer to the disclaimer. this is not an official forecast nor is it endorsed by any professional meteorological organization, including storm2k.org. For official info refer to the NHC or the NWS.


In response to the request for data;
The NWS is shifting from a position that it had taken earlier on the possibility of a trough impacting the ridge. Previously, the NWS had forecasted a trough exiting the east coast that would push back the ridge. If that forecast had held up, TD 10 would have needed to slow down in forward speed before rebuilding for reasons kinda too complex to get into. Anyway, now that the NWS is forecasting the trough to be sheared off which will allow the ridge to build in underneath; which is also being forecasted by the NWS; this greatly impacts the future forecast on TD 10. The more credible models will unquestionably shift further to the south or left. Also, TD 10 has never looked better. This system is on the way up, and there will not be a trough to contend with in 4 or 5 days that might have lead to slowing down of forward speed and some weakening. So a complication that had been in the forecast on day 4 and 5 is no longer present.

And look at the GFS. The 96 through 144 hr. scenario depicted in the 12Z-18Z is setting up to take place in 48 through 96 hrs instead. Also just take a look at the trough itself on the satellite imagery. It's already east west oriented. Where is the forecasted positive tilt? Look just underneath the trough. Already you can actually see the high building in underneath. Look at the sub-tropical ridge.

More importantly than all that, for the first time, will you look at TD 10 itself? Forget about all the...well the B.S. Does that look to you like a weak system on the decline? Not only does TD 10 look great, it is very much strengthening. The thing is, this system is poised to begin its period of rapid strengthening sooner, and totally unabated. Never, ever have i seen a more conducive pattern for development. Rarely can a course heading be so predictable as TD 10's WNW heading over the next several days and longer. The Florida east coast is very much under the gun of a major hurricane threat. This will become much more clear to all in the next 24 hrs.

Again, this is not an official forecast endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. This is only my opinion. You need to refer to the NHC and the NWS for official information since this forecast is based on data that may not be sound. This forecast may be very wrong. All other opinions are encouraged to debate this forecast, and I hope that the Florida Keys do not suffer a hurricane. That's what this is shaping up to be, however. Please prove this forecast in error. I hope that it is wrong.

You are right!!! This is not a forecast. Nor is it solid data to answer the questions I posed. It is only your opinions and nothing more. I SEE NO SOLID DATA!!!

And FYI, I have looked at the sat loops on two different sats and geuss what? I still see the same thing NHC does-a wave!!!!!

Nice try but I still don't see any solid data in anything you have posted.

Here is some solid data for you!!!

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jkt21787]

Maybe the new TWO will end all of this. I think its pretty clear, hard to deny it now, but just so we know...THIS IS OVER!!!! MOVE ON!

[ROCK]

I know what... Since this thread has been reduced to bashing individuals with an opinion (who can write well) maybe it should be locked. Furthermore, I agree its time to move on with this wave ,X-TD10, bunch of clouds, one T-storm system or whatever you want to call it... If not, maybe we can change the name Talkin Tropics to Talkin Trash.....Im sure we can all learn for that.....IMO

[SouthFloridawx]

see tomorrow is there is anything out of this mess.