When will Arthur form?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 3:26 pm

First week of June is my guess.

Hurricaneman · #2 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:21 pm

May 25th central atlantic

ROCK · #3 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:23 pm

mid-june....thanks to those sst's anomalies out there....

#4 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:39 pm

Im gonna say the first two weeks in June.

Crostorm · #5 Postby **Crostorm** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 4:20 am

June 12

Cryomaniac · #6 Postby **Cryomaniac** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 5:45 am

Voted for April, since there's no option for late March :lol:

#7 Postby **feederband** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:51 am

May 10th... Gomer Storm...

boca · #8 Postby **boca** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:51 am

It will form June 15th about 4pm,right before the 5pm advisory. It will form 200 miles ESE of Bermuda.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:55 am

In 2008 and every other six years!!!

Since there is no science involved in such a forecast I will say June 21 @ 11 AM. Arthur would be located SE of the Carolinas and SW of Bermuda and it could be subtropical at the beginning.

#10 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 4:13 pm

I'm leaning July 12th. We've had 3 seasons with a June storm in a row. The last time that there have been three consecutive seasons with a tropical storm prior to July 1st was 1964-1966. On the other hand, the five year period from 1956 to 1960 had a June storm in each year, meaning 2008 being a 4th wouldn't be unprecedented.

I'm thinking Arthur will develop from an upper-level low/TW interaction between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Now, that has absolutely no scientific basis :lol:

#11 Postby **angelwing** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 6:22 pm

April, no reason just a feeling

#12 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Mar 07, 2008 6:26 pm

I'll go with a July 4th storm. Just 'cause. :wink:

And I'm not seeing another preseason storm.

Opal storm · #13 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Mar 08, 2008 11:34 am

June 13th.

Frank2 · #14 Postby **Frank2** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 7:18 am

Just a word of advice not to focus on the SST's - how many in 2006 and 2007 said "something is bound to develop" because of the "bath water SST's", but, both seasons ended early, so, that's only one of many things that need to happen before a cyclone can develop...

At this time, very strong southwesterlies across the Gulf and western Caribbean, so, a continuation of last year (and the year before) at this time...

As is gaining popularity, Global Warming might actually be increasing shear across the tropics, which would mean fewer active seasons...

Back to the poll...

Cyclone1 · #15 Postby **Cyclone1** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:34 pm

Frank2 wrote:Just a word of advice not to focus on the SST's - how many in 2006 and 2007 said "something is bound to develop" because of the "bath water SST's", but, both seasons ended early,

Erm... ended early?

Olga?

Cyclenall · #16 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Mar 12, 2008 5:51 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Just a word of advice not to focus on the SST's - how many in 2006 and 2007 said "something is bound to develop" because of the "bath water SST's", but, both seasons ended early,

Erm... ended early?

Olga?

That's right, and Hurricane Noel in November.

Frank2 · #17 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 8:45 am

True, except for Noel and Olga, the rest of the '07 and '06 seasons had ended fairly early - I stand corrected...

Still, many in '06 and '07 were jumping up and down come September, citing that the tropics are "about to explode" because of high SST's, but, they forgot that there are other factors at work, not just warm ocean temps, so, as the NHC often says, don't focus on just one point (whether it be the eye of a hurricane or the elements that help to create one)...

In the end, the ocean temps can be in the 90's, but, if there is shear aloft, then, a hurricane is unlikely to form, unlike a tornado, which benefits from shear - it's just how it works...

Cyclone1 · #18 Postby **Cyclone1** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:41 pm

I understand. For example, look at 2005. People blame the SST's, but look at storms like Vince, Epsilon, Delta, and Zeta, which all formed over cool waters.

#19 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 6:11 pm

I said end of June.

Jinkers · #20 Postby **Jinkers** » Fri Mar 14, 2008 7:39 pm

1st week of June, a tropical storm