NCSU 2008 Forecast

[skywarn]

Researchers Say Outlook Indicates Active 2008 Hurricane Season

According to researchers at North Carolina State University, the 2008 hurricane season looks to be an active one; however, the number of storms that will have the potential to make landfall is close to that for an average year.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, and graduate student Elinor Keith, the outlook for 2008 is for an active season, with the possibility of 13-15 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Of those named storms, 6-8 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes. The southeastern coast of the U.S. could see 1-2 named storms make landfall, and there is a better than 50 percent chance that at least one of the storms will be a hurricane.

The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storm activity this year, as Xie's research indicates that 2-4 named storms, including one hurricane, are likely to make landfall along the Gulf Coast.

Xie's methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Source: North Carolina State University

http://www.physorg.com/news126966041.html

[Blown Away]

I'm sure there is alot of science and statistics that went into this forcast, but couldn't one make that same forcast every year and be statistically correct the majority of the time?

[flwxwatcher]

I'm sure there is alot of science and statistics that went into this forcast, but couldn't one make that same forcast every year and be statistically correct the majority of the time?

Yes.

[Duddy]

I don't believe extended Huricane season forecasts anymore.

Just sit back, and enjoy the show.