CMC Develops a Sub-Tropical(?) Low by Thursday

[Duddy]

This image as at 144 hours (obviously).

In the animation, a low from a frontal boundry cuts off and enters the Atlantic off the outerbanks. It then deepens and heads south.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008041900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[wxman57]

GFS and European have been developing a low off the coast of Georgia/SC for days then moving it southeastward for a while. Upper-level winds are forecast to be in the neighborhood of 40-60 kts over the low, so the chance of anything tropical is pretty low. Could be another low like the one earlier this week. Maybe even a low like Andrea last year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It will most likely be an extratropical, cold core low considering
the 40-60 knot windshear. Be careful with the CMC, as it tends
to exaggerate the development of tropical/subtropical low pressure
storms.

[Cyclone1]

Just to drift into my -removed- dual personality for a moment, I gotta say that's kinda cool.



But do I expect anything? No. However, I think my mind could be changed pretty easliy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It will most likely be an extratropical, cold core low considering
the 40-60 knot windshear. Be careful with the CMC, as it tends
to exaggerate the development of tropical/subtropical low pressure
storms.

The Canadian makes even a quiet season, or quiet off-season, exciting.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Animation

It looks like GFS wants to join CMC.

[RL3AO]

Well, SSTs are around 22C there. Could get something subtropical if the shear would allow it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian seems to show an area of light shear near the center of upper low pressure that follows its low on the 12Z run.

850 to 250 mb shear animation


Yes, I know the CMC is for amusement purposes only.

[wxman57]

12z GFS Animation

It looks like GFS wants to join CMC.

As I said, the GFS has been developing a frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast for days, as has the ECMWF. Nothing tropical, just a low on the cold front.

[Recurve]

I understand that at 384 hours the CMC has California falling into the ocean.

[G8rCane]

Start the evacuation of California!

[G8rCane]

No one tell te nuts in Hollywood though. I really don't think I could take thoes Al Gore, tree hugging, fruitcakes blaming me and my SUV for their awful plight...

[Category 5]

I understand that at 384 hours the CMC has California falling into the ocean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think it was the Professional Meteorologist Derek Ortt who
said that there are small numerical errors that tend to become
much bigger when a model is run further out into the future- so a
tiny less than a percent error can result in huge errors with phantom
storms at 380 hours. The error
builds and concatenates, so a .1 % error can be a
99% error 360 hours into the future. I think that applies to the GFS at 380 hours.

If the GFS verified 380 hours in advance, I would have had the
wildest storm chasing experiences in the history of the world. But that
hasn't happened.

[Duddy]

So at what point do each of you guys start to take the CMC seriously?

[MiamiensisWx]

So at what point do each of you guys start to take the CMC seriously?

Never

[HURAKAN]

Most cumputer models (CMC, GFS, NPG, UKM) are forecasting a low pressure system in the next few days to be north of Puerto Rico and south of 30ºN. Basically where Ana developed in 2003. Usually nothing tropical or subtropical happens, but since once in a while we get a surprise and since there is nothing to lose!

CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

NGP: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

UKM: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Now, the LPS is not shown to be in the subtropics for a long time and windshear could be very strong for this time of the year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So at what point do each of you guys start to take the CMC seriously?

Never

Because the CMC develops every possible disturbance, it is usually the first model to predict actual cyclones, but that is kind of the blind squirrel finding the nut theory.

If the CMC has support from multiple models, it might be right.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC

CMC continues to be very bullish with the low pressure.

00z NOGAPS¨

NOGAPS is more weak but shows the low.

00z UKMET

UKMET shows the low deepening at the end of this run.

00z GFS

GFS is the most weak of the models.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The CMC's SLP suggests that low may still be on the Southern end of a front.