Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Vortex]

First of all, Its GREAT to be back for the 2008 season!!

GFS has been indicating the potential for disturbed weather over the western carribean/EPAC for the last several days in the long range. Here's a look at the 6z:

H+324 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

H+348
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

H+384
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[boca]

I look at this a pure entertainment at this point especially 324 hours out.If it were 180hrs or less I would look at this more closely.Its getting to that time of the phantom storm watch of the GFS.I'm watching for trends with this to see what transpires out of it.

[flwxwatcher]

I look at this a pure entertainment at this point especially 324 hours out.If it were 180hrs or less I would look at this more closely.Its getting to that time of the phantom storm watch of the GFS.I'm watching for trends with this to see what transpires out of it.

Its May and right about the right time for some of the models to try and develop something in the Caribbean because of the lower pressure down there this time of year. The Models do it every year and I will believe it when I see it but it's fun to watch regardless.

[KWT]

Yep its probably complete fallacy but its still interesting to note that over the last few years there has been some activity in the SW Caribbean of some sorts during June, maybe the models are onto the lowering of pressure in that region that normally occurs as someone else has already said.

[RL3AO]

We were due for one of these threads!

[HURAKAN]

Vortex, welcome back!! Most computer models are good for the 24-48 hrs projections. At 72 hrs the errors are usually high, and after that, it becomes a video game (anything can happen). Therefore, 324 hrs into the future should not be taken seriously at all. Still, we look at them because we want something to form!!

[terstorm1012]

woo hoo model watching!

Keep me posted.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nice to see you Vortex!!!

[Duddy]

Welcome back Vortex!

Let the -removed- begin!

[boca]

Get the popcorn out the GFS 18z shows the system approacing S FL at 384hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif

I'm waiting on the GFS 00z to come out.Its at 96 hrs right now.I hope to stay awake.

[brunota2003]

Get the popcorn out the GFS 18z shows the system approacing S FL at 384hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif

I'm waiting on the GFS 00z to come out.Its at 96 hrs right now.I hope to stay awake.

Florida? You didnt see that curve towards the very end? Definitely has NC written all over it...xD

[boca]

Get the popcorn out the GFS 18z shows the system approacing S FL at 384hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif

I'm waiting on the GFS 00z to come out.Its at 96 hrs right now.I hope to stay awake.

Florida? You didnt see that curve towards the very end? Definitely has NC written all over it...xD

I think your right it should jump over Florida and hit Cape Fear,NC.

[boca]

The GFS 00z lost our phantom system.Darn it.

[Duddy]

Darn, and I just finished popping the corn.

[boca]

Hey Vortex welcome back.You should change the title to the GFS phantom watch because by June 1st we should have at least 500 posts just on the bogus storms they spin up.

[Vortex]

[MiamiensisWx]

SEASON CANCEL

...and we don't need extra preparedness for the -removed- that is routinely encouraged for every thunderstorm, low level trade cumulus, or SHRA in the Atlantic basin.

[flwxwatcher]

it won't be long until the Canadian starts spinning up its phantom storms. the King of overdoing it, the Canadian.

[KWT]

I suspect the Canadian model has already tried to produce a few phantom storms!

[Meso]

Surprisingly not... I've been checking all the models every day for a while now But one can hope soon there is something interesting