Hurricane Season-An Early Look (LA NINA)

[liveweatherman]

The LaNina pattern the last few months has been getting weaker and weaker. This could signal the slow end to La Nina and maybe a start to El Nino by the end of the year. The El Nino start is a long shot so I would want to focus more on the LaNina fading pattern for hurricane outlook.

The Hurricane season officially starts June 1 but with this type of pattern I do think this will not get going until August. We could see a stray system before than but due to climatology factors and the fading La Nina I think the %'s are that this is a August-October season.

The ocean temps in the Atlantic Ocean are up this year but it's not all over the Atlantic Ocean. The Central and Eastern tropical Atlantic were a little off the pace but should start to increase by early June. The target this year could be the US coast on the Atlantic side. My call is that Hatteras to Miami have an increased chance of a hurricane this year in August and September. The La Nina issue and the warmer waters WILL INCREASE the chances in the normally active Carolina Zone.

FROM THE W.M.O. (World Meteorology Organization)
WMO had predicted last October that the phenomenon would last until March.

But it said Monday that it now appeared likely that it would persist until June or July and could last longer. It said it was still difficult at this stage to predict how long.

"During the last three months La Niña conditions have become slightly stronger," a WMO statement said. "Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (2.7-3.6 Fahrenheit) colder than average over large parts of the central an eastern Equatorial Pacific."

This La Niña had been in the average range of such events, but the recent cooling will likely put it in the stronger-than-average category, WMO said.

La Niña normally lasts nine to 12 months. The current event started in the July-September quarter of last year, WMO said.

"It is rare for a La Niña event to persist for two years or more, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000," WMO said. "The likelihood of the current La Niña continuing for such a period will remain unclear for some months."

La Niña is the flip side of the El Niño phenomenon, where Pacific surface temperatures rise and are blamed for other changes in weather patterns around the world. continue

[KWT]

I do agree with you la nina seasons tend to start later on in August though there does tend to be the odd earlier storm in there as well. I reckon we will probably hover just above the la nina category in the summer months, maybe say -0.4C upto -0.2C.

Also la ninas tend to seem to favor cape verde systems and with waters nice and above normal in the eastern Atlantic I think this could be a season dominated by such systems.

[HURRICANELONNY]

WOW. The SOI is tanking negative. Don't really know what it means. It's all in the average. S. Fl will get a backdoor front Saturday. Maybe that is what it means. Trough east coast swinging SW.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/