Possible Development in EPAC

[gatorcane]

It's firing nicely today. It's probably going to move into the EPAC though, but some impressive convection indeed. Thoughts? Is this the beginning of the system the GFS is developing for the Western Caribbean (I know the GFS is showing something around 168 hours out)? Any chance it could move into the EPAC and develop? Wind shear is around the 10K range in the extreme SW Caribbean and into the EPAC so upper-level winds do appear favorable. Notice how hostile the environment is just north of this disturbed area with 20K to 30K winds out of the SW across much of the Western Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Just north of Panama you can see some turning.

[KWT]

Yeah the turning is right near where the weak circulation is present according to analysis and there is decent convection nearby but I'm guessing all this is a pretty normal set-up for this part of the world. May need to be watched if it gets into the EPAC however.

[gatorcane]

Looks like this Low will have the best chance of development in the EPAC if it even develops at all. There is a 1011MB low in the extreme SW Caribbean but the convection is being enhanced by the Columbian Low that usually sits in the area of Panama this time of year.

2:05pm TWD Snippet:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 9N76W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SPREAD OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 11Z SHOWED
ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THIS AREA. THESE WINDS VEER SE OVER
THE NW WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

[wyq614]

Aquí vendrá el ALMA

[Cryomaniac]

I would love to answer you in Spanish, but I don't really speak enough of it.

I wouldn't put too much trust in 240 hour model runs.

[Meso]

The low develops in 160 hours which isn't that far out.. Still quite a lot but plausible.The GFS is also showing something there..

[gatorcane]

The low develops in 160 hours which isn't that far out.. Still quite a lot but plausible.The GFS is also showing something there..

Indeed here is the GFS at 168 hours showing the low emerging into the EPAC and deepening.

[KWT]

The GFS does indeed try and develop a weak system in the EPAC.

I've got a funny feeling that the TC the ECM forms and the Caribbean system of the GFS are one and the same thing just placed differently.

Quite a strong system on the ECM, that would probably be something like a strong TS I'd guess though of course its hard to say that with the resolution issues.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe this will be the first storm of the EPAC season? I can't see it doing anything in the Caribbean though...

[wyq614]

:uarrow: I would love to answer you in Spanish, but I don't really speak enough of it.

I wouldn't put too much trust in 240 hour model runs.

I do trust ECWMF, for its perfect performance forecasting Nargis and Neoguri. Hope it can also do very well in the other side of the world.

[gatorcane]

TAFB depiction of low as it moves onshore Nicaragua:

[gatorcane]

2:05pm TWD snippet. While the convection is deepening the fact the low is moving inland into Nicaragua should mean the convection will wane over the next 24-48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ACTIVE WEATHER LIES OVER THE SW WATERS. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEEPENING AND EXPANDING
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THE FORCING
FOR THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES A 1010 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SE NICARAGUA AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ON THE S SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS LOW...OR ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
...MOVING INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Meso]

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z UK Met has a weak system on the Pacific coast of Nicaragua in 6 days, more obvious on 850 mb vorticity chart, but observable on the SLP forecast.



6Z GFS is a bit further East, in the Caribbean.




It seems something may get going, although that isn't certain, and the next question is which basin will it be in?

[gatorcane]

this low is enhancing convection off the coast of Costa Rica this morning. I think this area will need to be monitored for development

[RL3AO]

Quikscat showed some slight turning near 10N 88W. Nothing too impressive.

[tolakram]

But does it bear watching?

[gatorcane]

But does it bear watching?

Not quite yet -- I want to see if the convection is persistent. The last couple of hours shows some warming of the cloud tops so I am not convinced yet. It may take a good 2-3 days before something, if anything, tries to get going there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

But does it bear watching?

Not quite yet -- I want to see if the convection is persistent. The last couple of hours shows some warming of the cloud tops so I am not convinced yet. It may take a good 2-3 days before something, if anything, tries to get going there.

So, a 'bears watch' watch, but not yet a 'bears watch' warning.