Anyone think this is a bear watch?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
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dixiebreeze
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cycloneye
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Re: 50 just north of 10 in Central Atlantic.....
That is a tropical wave that will enter the Eastern Caribbean tuesday afternoon or evening.But nothing to be concerned about in terms of development.
8 PM Discussion.
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 22N...OR ABOUT 450 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AMPLIFYING
AS IT APPROACHES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THUS THE AXIS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT NW/SE TILT.
STRONG HIGH PRES AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN TRADES HAS BUILT IN
BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN SPREAD ACROSS PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE AND
WED.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
8 PM Discussion.
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 22N...OR ABOUT 450 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AMPLIFYING
AS IT APPROACHES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THUS THE AXIS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT NW/SE TILT.
STRONG HIGH PRES AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN TRADES HAS BUILT IN
BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN SPREAD ACROSS PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE AND
WED.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
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dixiebreeze
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Gustywind
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: 50 just north of 10 in Central Atlantic.....
cycloneye wrote:That is a tropical wave that will enter the Eastern Caribbean tuesday afternoon or evening.But nothing to be concerned about in terms of development.
8 PM Discussion.
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W S OF 22N...OR ABOUT 450 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS AMPLIFYING
AS IT APPROACHES A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THUS THE AXIS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT NW/SE TILT.
STRONG HIGH PRES AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN TRADES HAS BUILT IN
BEHIND THE WAVE AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN SPREAD ACROSS PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE AND
WED.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
Hi cycloneye, glad to see you my neighbour. Hopefully and tkanks developpement is not anticipated, whereas for my untrained eyes...or a mistake from my part, it's the first decent wave approaching the east carib, and this twave should bring strong showers with slight thunderstorms given the latest weather forecast. We will see what happens but we hope honestly some water after the moderate drought the last 3 weeks (very hot and dry).
I check you the sat from meteo_ france showing the strong twave approaching the area, convection is not so bad at this time of the season....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
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Re: 50 just north of 10 in Central Atlantic.....
I think this might be the trigger that will set off the sytem in the EPAC or SW Caribbean in the other thread.
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dixiebreeze
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Re: 50 just north of 10 in Central Atlantic.....
boca wrote:I think this might be the trigger that will set off the sytem in the EPAC or SW Caribbean in the other thread.
That's what I'm thinking.
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Gustywind
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 271050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
8 am Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W.
I will see what happens, but the recent weather forecast is speaking about a strong change this afternoon especially tonight... bringing showers with thunderstorms on Guadeloupe. I also tkink as you ,that this wave is the trigger that models want to developpin in the EPAC or SW Caribbean in the other thread.
I check you the lastest sat pic from Meteo-France
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
Thick moisture doting the area steadily between 30 w to 55w
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg
Weak sal from Africa to the Lesser Antilles
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 271050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
8 am Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W.
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W.
I will see what happens, but the recent weather forecast is speaking about a strong change this afternoon especially tonight... bringing showers with thunderstorms on Guadeloupe. I also tkink as you ,that this wave is the trigger that models want to developpin in the EPAC or SW Caribbean in the other thread.
I check you the lastest sat pic from Meteo-France http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
Thick moisture doting the area steadily between 30 w to 55w
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg
Weak sal from Africa to the Lesser Antilles
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Gustywind
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Stong shear ahead the twave, 40 kts of shear from west near the east Carib islands, so it looks like a sheared system, with all the convection spared in vicinity of the islands...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Whereas we should see some showers tommorow morning sometimes strong with scattered thunderstorms, but given the lastest weather forecast, moreover for my untrained eyes and by extrapolation the chances to have lot of water are slim and are diminishing in response of the moderate drought on the island the last 3 weeks
Stong shear ahead the twave, 40 kts of shear from west near the east Carib islands, so it looks like a sheared system, with all the convection spared in vicinity of the islands...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Whereas we should see some showers tommorow morning sometimes strong with scattered thunderstorms, but given the lastest weather forecast, moreover for my untrained eyes and by extrapolation the chances to have lot of water are slim and are diminishing in response of the moderate drought on the island the last 3 weeks
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Gustywind
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- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
KWT wrote:I don;t think its this wave that will set off the SW Caribbean system ,that wave is already well into the Caribbean close to the region of development I believe, beside shear is going to totally strip it of convection I reckon.
Absolutely, the wave you're speaking is an invest, whereas what nigthmare for the wave east of mu island already sheared
we will see what happens in the 12 h....and seeing on this forwad angle she will be sweep quickly by the strongs winds just before crossing the islands like that 
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 280517
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N58W TO 21N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS
NOW A SEPARATE FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BROKEN OFF AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 32N34W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
NEAR 13N48W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF
20W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA.
Hi everbody,
i have some lightning with some gusts added to sometimes moderate showers.... Nothing serious but sure that a twave with moderate activity is crossing the east carib islands, we should have the water needed after the drought the past 3 weeks. It's the first wave to bring significant weather activity since the end of the past season, if my head doesn't deceiving me
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Strong shear near the east carib islands 40 KTS from west
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
AXNT20 KNHC 280517
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N58W TO 21N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE IS
NOW A SEPARATE FEATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BROADER
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BROKEN OFF AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N61W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 32N34W SW INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO
NEAR 13N48W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF
20W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA.
Hi everbody,
i have some lightning with some gusts added to sometimes moderate showers.... Nothing serious but sure that a twave with moderate activity is crossing the east carib islands, we should have the water needed after the drought the past 3 weeks
. It's the first wave to bring significant weather activity since the end of the past season, if my head doesn't deceiving me http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Strong shear near the east carib islands 40 KTS from west
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N61W TO 21N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 14N.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
Twave is moving away conditions are beginning to improve on my area, but yesterday was really the signature of the first decent wave bringing a significant activity in terms of moderate convection ( ligh
AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N61W TO 21N63W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL
DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 14N.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
Twave is moving away conditions are beginning to improve on my area, but yesterday was really the signature of the first decent wave bringing a significant activity in terms of moderate convection ( ligh
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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Re: Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean
Any thought out there on this blob. Convection seems to be pretty consistent.
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I think that blob is probably to do with a tropical wave that has just moved through and is heading towards the area that has been widely discussed here:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100933&start=1100
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100933&start=1100
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