18z tropical model run:Pressure way down from 1016 to 1009

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

18z tropical model run:Pressure way down from 1016 to 1009

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:23 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081119

Wow the models iniciate this latest run with 1009 mbs way down from 1016 earlier.And also they predict it to be a hurricane in GOM but take it easy gomers because system has not developed yet and all this can change in hours as the system develops or not down the road.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
kmanWX
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 965
Joined: Sun Mar 30, 2003 9:48 pm
Location: PHL
Contact:
Contact kmanWX

Re: 18z tropical model run:Pressure way down from 1016 to 10

#2 Postby kmanWX » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/03081119

Wow the models iniciate this latest run with 1009 mbs way down from 1016 earlier.And also they predict it to be a hurricane.
Hmm so this model is tending downwords. So this has a good chance for it to become erika....
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#3 Postby Steve H. » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:28 pm

Once again Florida is spared! Deflector shield working well :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:31 pm

Chad or scott will bring this 18z model run in grafic for all to see where the models will take this system.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#5 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:38 pm

I just looked at the 12z globals and the GFS/ETA/NOGAPS are developing something in the GOM as well ... NOGAPS is furthest north with the track ... taking it towards Louisiana ... while the GFS takes most of it in south TX or south of TX...

It'll be interesting to see what the globals initialize Invest 91L in the coming runs ... 1009 mb is a remarked drop considering its disorganized look at this time. (surrounding environmental pressure is greater as well down from 1016mb-1021mb to 1009mb-1016mb) ...

SF
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

Likely a typo

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:43 pm

I have sene the initial pressure be a bogus one. Once before Barry formed 2 years ago, the initial pressure in one test run was 1002mb, 8 mb lower than reality.

Still waiting for the final runs to be available, but what I have seen suggests more intensification (shifor especially) than is likely
0 likes   
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#7 Postby OtherHD » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:44 pm

You think its being initialized at 1009 based on the latest TWD mentioning a surface reflection of the low? Whereas previously it was all upper level?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:49 pm

HD the answer is yes.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
JetMaxx

#9 Postby JetMaxx » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:03 pm

Steve H. wrote:Once again Florida is spared! Deflector shield working well :wink:


"Remember September" :wink:
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#10 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:17 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 20 guests