More Tropical Developement - HOU-GAL Bear Watch for next Sun

[KatDaddy]

Here is an excerpt from this morning Houston-Galveston AFD

THINGS GET INTERESTING NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT APPEARS THAT
SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL OR HYBRID SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN
PLACEMENT BUT BOTH INDICATE A SYSTEM IN THE GULF WITH A GREAT DEAL
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED...BUT IT BEARS WATCH

[KatDaddy]

And for the Corpus Christi AFD

NEXT
WEEKEND COULD BE INTERESTING GIVEN THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE
YUCATAN.

[canegrl04]

We could have the potential for Arthur in June? Hope it doesn't turn out to be another Alison .

[flwxwatcher]

Then again.. remember we have been getting these bear watch model runs for several days now. Maybe this time they will be right.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

BRO AFD says chances of 90L ever making it to Texas are extremely low...

Mid/late week trough that was supposed to be our next/best chance for rain looks weaker and further North, per various AFDs. It dies in Mexico, gets into the BoC and then Mexico, or if it escapes, Florida.

The big high over Texas is large and in charge.


I see a dry and warm summer in Texas, in my humble and amateur opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If -removed- was like wishing on a star, I'd be wishing a nice dry spell ending soaking for all of South Texas, but it doesn't seem very likely.


The high is so strong even the normal late Spring/early Summer sea breeze storms are shut down.

[srainhoutx]

BRO AFD says chances of 90L ever making it to Texas are extremely low...

Mid/late week trough that was supposed to be our next/best chance for rain looks weaker and further North, per various AFDs. It dies in Mexico, gets into the BoC and then Mexico, or if it escapes, Florida.

The big high over Texas is large and in charge.


I see a dry and warm summer in Texas, in my humble and amateur opinion.

I have thought for several months, since February infact, that this dry and warm pattern may persist for some time. We shall see. Almost reminds me of the summer of 1980 for SE TX.

[Frank2]

I'm surprised and disappointed that the AFD's would even mention something like that, considering it's one week out...

Today's forecasters are not like the forecasters I worked for (all now retired) - it seems they are too "model-oriented"...

The outcome of Alma & 90L are two examples - the outcome was (is) much different than the GFS picture of about one week ago...

[srainhoutx]

I'm surprised and disappointed that the AFD's would even mention something like that, considering it's one week out...

Today's forecasters are not like the forecasters I worked for (all now retired) - it seems they are too "model-oriented"...

The outcome of Alma & 90L are two examples - the outcome was (is) much different that the GFS picture of about one week ago...

I tend to agree with the "model oriented" thought. Ahh, the good old days. But, another tool in the "grand scheme" of things can be useful, if it is not abused.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know if Houston will see any issues, but if the latest 12z GFS run is correct, then the north-central Gulf might...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

...The worst part about this run is the fact that I will be driving from Houston to Orlando next Saturday and Sunday. If the low pressure area is sitting off the north-central Gulf coast as the 12z GFS shows, then I might be in for one rough and stormy ride. Great..

[Ptarmigan]

BRO AFD says chances of 90L ever making it to Texas are extremely low...

Mid/late week trough that was supposed to be our next/best chance for rain looks weaker and further North, per various AFDs. It dies in Mexico, gets into the BoC and then Mexico, or if it escapes, Florida.

The big high over Texas is large and in charge.


I see a dry and warm summer in Texas, in my humble and amateur opinion.

Don't jinx it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BRO AFD says chances of 90L ever making it to Texas are extremely low...

Mid/late week trough that was supposed to be our next/best chance for rain looks weaker and further North, per various AFDs. It dies in Mexico, gets into the BoC and then Mexico, or if it escapes, Florida.

The big high over Texas is large and in charge.


I see a dry and warm summer in Texas, in my humble and amateur opinion.

Don't jinx it.

We're in a moderate drought now. Galveston had 0.02 inches of rain for the entire month of May. I'd welcome a tropical storm that kept moving.


Maybe later in August the center of the ridge moves far enough North that Texas gets into deep Easterly flow, and a Caribbean/South Florida storm that somehow escapes the east Coast trough makes it through. Maybe in September a passing trough will pass far enough South when a system in in the right spot to be turned Northwest into Texas. Not meaning to jinx anything, just, in my amateur opinion, this looks like a slower than usual season for the Upper Texas Coast.

[ROCK]

BRO AFD says chances of 90L ever making it to Texas are extremely low...

Mid/late week trough that was supposed to be our next/best chance for rain looks weaker and further North, per various AFDs. It dies in Mexico, gets into the BoC and then Mexico, or if it escapes, Florida.

The big high over Texas is large and in charge.


I see a dry and warm summer in Texas, in my humble and amateur opinion.

Don't jinx it.

We're in a moderate drought now. Galveston had 0.02 inches of rain for the entire month of May. I'd welcome a tropical storm that kept moving.


Maybe later in August the center of the ridge moves far enough North that Texas gets into deep Easterly flow, and a Caribbean/South Florida storm that somehow escapes the east Coast trough makes it through. Maybe in September a passing trough will pass far enough South when a system in in the right spot to be turned Northwest into Texas. Not meaning to jinx anything, just, in my amateur opinion, this looks like a slower than usual season for the Upper Texas Coast.

Its been 25 years since Alicia. Before that Carla in the 60's. Not sure how to interpret a slower than usual season for Texas given that data.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Slower than usual season? Well, I was including tropical storms/hurricanes that missed, but still affect the sensible weather. T.S. Erin rained quite a bit on my house last year. Humberto rained some around here, but not after it was classified as a storm. Hurricane Claudette missed by a fair amount, but the rain got here. Rita missed by quite a bit, but still rained here and cut electricity for about half a day at my house, with some tree limbs down, fences damaged, etc.. Allison rained super huge big time here.


I wasn't talking about direct/near direct hits from majors, which is very rare for the Houston area. I was saying slower than usual for pretty much anything.


I haven't checked, but I'd guess an average year doesn't have a TC hit close enough to do more than cause high clouds or increase subsidence, so, if nothing happens, and it is a below average year, you would have a hard time telling that it wasn't just an average year. Or, below average is average, if that makes sense.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyway, in my humble and amateur opinion, the bear that needs watching is not 'Arthur', or maybe 'Bertha', but 'drought'.


I suspect we'll be hoping for a TD or TS that drops 5 or 10 inches of rain in a day (and then leaves, of course) by August, but I'm not sure we'll get it.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

[KWT]

I just wonder whether we will have to watch that stubborn area of convection off the Nw Caribbean. No doubt its being helped by Arthur but once that moves out of the way if its still there we may need to keep a watch on it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just wonder whether we will have to watch that stubborn area of convection off the Nw Caribbean. No doubt its being helped by Arthur but once that moves out of the way if its still there we may need to keep a watch on it.

Bears watching for the Caribbean and Florida, maybe, not around here.

[srainhoutx]

Snipet fromearly morning AFD from HGX...


THE TROPICS GOT OFF TO A FAST START. TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON. TS ARTHUR WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND AFFECT CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ANOTHER
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AROUND JUNE
9TH. MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
YESTERDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT THE SYSTEM MIGHT HELP TO DISLODGE THE STUBBORN RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. 43

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=61

I have been concerned for some time with blocking pattern for the NW GOM. The neverending SW flow in the upper levels. Reminds me of 1980, although not as HOT "yet".