Invest 91L has an LLCC (though naked)

[Stormsfury]

I created this 3 hr loop at 5 pm EDT - it has a circulation center but the best activity is NE of the center ...

Animated Loop of Invest 91L

[wxman57]

Look closely at a water vapor loop and you'll see something quite interesting. The upper-level low near 25N/66W is weakening fast. The second upper-level low in the Caribbean southwest of Haiti remains strong. If you look <b>really</b> closely you can see an upper-level high beginning to build between the two low centers - not far west of the convection. Latest GFS dissipates the northern upper-low by tomorrow. That may be the cue for conection to start firing near the weak LLC. The GFS takes the southern upper-low westward across the western Caribbean, across the Yucatan, then into old Mexico at 120hrs, keeping the surface low on its northern side the whole time. We may well see a TD before it reaches Florida.

[Steve H.]

But the LLCC will never reach Florida. it is heading SW and may even be closer to Cuba. The only chance for Florida to be affected is if the deep convection to the NE of the LLCC becomes the primary surface low in the next day or two. It is circulating, albeit slow. Chances are less than 50% of the second scenario though. Cheers!!

[Stormsfury]

But the LLCC will never reach Florida. it is heading SW and may even be closer to Cuba. The only chance for Florida to be affected is if the deep convection to the NE of the LLCC becomes the primary surface low in the next day or two. It is circulating, albeit slow. Chances are less than 50% of the second scenario though. Cheers!!

Looking more and more like the ETA's solution of the low passing between Cuba and Florida is looking more and more plausible, IMO.

SF

[wxman57]

Perhaps I should have said, "before it reaches the longitude of the Florida Peninsula." FL straits may be more likely.

[ColdFront77]

It isn't premature to have high confidence in a movement toward Cuba? This is a tropical system, after all.