Eastern Pacific Convection

[Meso]

A small flare up of convection around 117W 10N has appeared and while development is unlikely,MM5 has shown something in that area forming soon and the other models show something in the Eastern Pacific forming within the next 5 days or so.Just something to watch until it goes 'poof' I guess,it's still attached to the ITCZ too.



Loop

Edit : Interesting,new GFS run shows something in that general area in 42 hours

[Cyclone1]

Looks like it has potential.

[tolakram]

Different blob got tagged.



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 131132
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ANY DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BROWN

[KWT]

Looks to me that the orgnial area that they were watching has decayed quite a bit on the northern side and now the best looking portion is probably attached to the ITCZ anyway.

[Tampa_God]

Anything on that nice area of convention and rotation out there? Invest maybe?

[Meso]

Not yet,but almost all the models are showing something developing soon..Including the euro

[KWT]

Well I think this thread needs to be bumped because the ITCZ has come alive in the EPAC, plenty of deep convection present between 10-15N at the moment which may need watching eventually. Not being watched by the TWO yet but if anywhere becomes better established it may need to be watched.

[tolakram]

Yea, Northwest of 10,100 and under very low shear.

[KWT]

Low shear is very interesting, if anything can get going then no reason why it wouldn't strengthen. ECM showing a system forming in about 120-144hrs in the EPAC, maybe out of the ITCZ mess we have at the moment.

[Meso]

There was stacks of model support for developement yesterday and the day before but most models seem to be backing down.Euro does show something developing around 200 hours now though

[Meso]

The models are back to liking this idea

[KWT]

It seems like the models want to try and develop something in the EPAC but hasn't really focused on one area for development any time soon. Still just a mess of convection out there.

[Meso]

[KWT]

Still quite a while out but the ECM has been pretty consitant in developing a EPAC system so we shall see eventually.

[Meso]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

93E.Invest is up:



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO AN AREA LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Meso]

Chooochoooo All aboard

[Meso]

Again with the train

[KWT]

Yep whilst 93E didn't do anything I woulsn't be surprised if we see another area of intrest given there is still some fairly deep convection present out there in the EPAC.