Can you give us another update on what you think is going to happen with 91L? Wondering if anything has changed since your posts this morning?
Thanks,
Patricia
Wxman57
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wxman57
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91L
Well, I don't see too much happening quickly. It is noteworthy that the GFS is indicating that the upper-low associated with 91L is forecast to weaken and dissipate tomorrow as the upper-low in the Caribbean takes over. This could be the cue for convection to begin firing near the LLC (which is near 23N/69.5W tonight).
As of 5pm, I could see evidence that the upper low was weakening, and perhaps splitting off to the north of the LLC. I could also see evidence of an upper-level high building close to the LLC. More reason to think that convection may begin to fire near the LLC in 24hrs or so.
But one thing troubles me - the strength of that upper low south of Cuba. There are 25-35kt easterly winds forecast aloft across the Florida Straits and continuning west over the disturbance all the way to Texas in 120hrs. If the low gets too far south, then the shear will most likely either prevent development or severely inhibit development. It's going to be really close to being in an environment with too much shear. But if the low stays just far enough north, then the upper low may even enhance convection somewhat.
I give this system maybe a 40-50% shot of becoming at least a minimal TS, but probably not until after Wednesday when it gets into the Gulf. I think it's unlikely to become a hurriane if that shear is present as forecast.
Finally, I predict that I probably will be working this coming weekend instead of going to a party on Saturday.
As of 5pm, I could see evidence that the upper low was weakening, and perhaps splitting off to the north of the LLC. I could also see evidence of an upper-level high building close to the LLC. More reason to think that convection may begin to fire near the LLC in 24hrs or so.
But one thing troubles me - the strength of that upper low south of Cuba. There are 25-35kt easterly winds forecast aloft across the Florida Straits and continuning west over the disturbance all the way to Texas in 120hrs. If the low gets too far south, then the shear will most likely either prevent development or severely inhibit development. It's going to be really close to being in an environment with too much shear. But if the low stays just far enough north, then the upper low may even enhance convection somewhat.
I give this system maybe a 40-50% shot of becoming at least a minimal TS, but probably not until after Wednesday when it gets into the Gulf. I think it's unlikely to become a hurriane if that shear is present as forecast.
Finally, I predict that I probably will be working this coming weekend instead of going to a party on Saturday.
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Ticka. Time for us to Watch Again
From the Houston-Galveston Forecast Discussion:
ALL MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO THRU THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF LATE WED OR EARLY
THURSDAY. PROBLEM IS THAT IS WILL BE TRAVELING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY OF A NWD
TURN. CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE IT TRAVELING DUE WEST THRU THE GULF
AND INTO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA LATE SATURDAY-ISH. THIS TRAJECTORY
COULD CAUSE SOME TIDE PROBLEMS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE LONG ENE
FETCH SHOULD IT STRENGTHEN.
ALL MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO THRU THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE GULF LATE WED OR EARLY
THURSDAY. PROBLEM IS THAT IS WILL BE TRAVELING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY OF A NWD
TURN. CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE IT TRAVELING DUE WEST THRU THE GULF
AND INTO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA LATE SATURDAY-ISH. THIS TRAJECTORY
COULD CAUSE SOME TIDE PROBLEMS LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE LONG ENE
FETCH SHOULD IT STRENGTHEN.
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