Eastern Atlantic Wave

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Meso
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Eastern Atlantic Wave

#1 Postby Meso » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:15 am

There is an area of convection around 23W 6N which emerged off Africa yesterday.This area has not been introduced as a wave per the NHC's TWD but it has maintained itself fairly well thus far,it has a small amount of model support (Unlike the wave ahead) and the CMC closes off a low while moving it just North of South America within the 144 hour run.The problem the 'wave' will encounter will likely be one of shear as the shear in the area seems to be on the high side to the North,so it's survival will rely on how long it can stay at a low latitude without running into South America,but the wave ahead has provided a very moist path for anything coming along that line now.Probably another nothing in the end,but worth watching I guess

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Model Run
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CMC 12z Model Run



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Environmental Conditions
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Last edited by Meso on Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby KWT » Thu Jun 19, 2008 4:40 am

A good looking area of convection with some fairly deep convection present but SAL is pretty much right on top of this wave and so I don't expect any development to happen with this wave, I don't think it will even get nearly as organised as the other wave was at one point.
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#3 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:23 am

Hi meso here's is the area that you're reffering, if my eyes don't deceiving me!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE EXACT
POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BASED ON CURRENT DATA. WILL WAIT
FOR VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MORE EVIDENCE. IN ADDITION...THE
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM IS SHOWING THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE TWO DAYS AGO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-25W.
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#4 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:09 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
FIRST AVAILABLE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROBABLY ALONG 20W/21W. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
OF A CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD BE ADDED ON THE 1200 UTC SFC MAP. IN ADDITION...THE
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM IS SHOWING THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE TWO DAYS AGO...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ALSO
REVEALS A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W.

:)
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#5 Postby Meso » Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:12 am

Hah,yes... I get to take away the ' ' from my topic... Other models still not doing much with it..I think the NOGAPS takes a small area into South America
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Re:

#6 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:25 am

Meso wrote:Hah,yes... I get to take away the ' ' from my topic... Other models still not doing much with it..I think the NOGAPS takes a small area into South America

lol :cheesy:
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 12:52 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE
MAP AND IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES WAVE HAS MOVED OFF OF W AFRICA SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND ANY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
8-)
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#8 Postby Bane » Thu Jun 19, 2008 1:50 pm

considering it is june, this thing has basically no shot to develop where it currently is.
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Re:

#9 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:15 pm

Bane wrote:considering it is june, this thing has basically no shot to develop where it currently is.

Yeah absolutely and with awesome shear and dry air... inhibiting any developpement :eek: it's mission quite impossible, but the next weeks we should see mores seductives and suspicious waves just a training for sure Bane! :)
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#10 Postby Meso » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:38 pm

Was looking good earlier and models were liking it more than the wave ahead but alas,looks to have poofed quite a bit
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Re: African Wave

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 19, 2008 8:24 pm

More convection tonight.

Image
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:43 pm

Yes an attempt with slightly better conditions than his predecessor i tkink... :?: 8-)
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Re: African Wave

#13 Postby boca » Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:More convection tonight.

Image


If the ITCZ was up by 10n I would be alittle nervous.
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Re: African Wave

#14 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:59 pm

boca wrote:
cycloneye wrote:More convection tonight.

Image


If the ITCZ was up by 10n I would be alittle nervous.

Yeah for sure and absolutely if i we were in July too, climato the ITCZ is near the latitud of Trinidad so 10/11 ° N :wink: so you won't the only nervous lol
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#15 Postby Meso » Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:31 am

If it were at 10N you should be less nervous ;) Large area of 50kt shear to the North.Another good looking wave that will probably get pegged down by the shear.SAL isn't too strong now and dry air situation not that bad.But shear is ripping through the central atlantic
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Re:

#16 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:57 am

Meso wrote:If it were at 10N you should be less nervous ;) Large area of 50kt shear to the North.Another good looking wave that will probably get pegged down by the shear.SAL isn't too strong now and dry air situation not that bad.But shear is ripping through the central atlantic

Yeah very cute twave but shear is strong apparently, i said apparently because if you read my lasts post concerning the crossing my area near Guadeloupe in another thread , winds were during th night and this morning near 35 to 40 kts and... if that's true that the wave is interacting positively with an upper level trough but i'm surprised that the wave has crossed the east carib without being seriously swept/sheared. Hope that for this one it won't be an exception :) ....because i was feeling that we were dealing with a tremendous twave of September given the noisy effects of the huge thunderstorms like dynamite terrific for some people , not for me ;but for a surprise in store we feel it here! :eek:
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Re: African Wave

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:26 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW PRODUCT AND THE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAM THAT CLEARLY INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE.
LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF
THE WAVE AXIS WHICH EXHIBITS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 7N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY AHEAD
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W.
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#18 Postby Meso » Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:43 am

It seems to be pulling to the north a bit.. moved about a degree or 2 in the past day,maybe breaking away from the ITCZ.Convection not looking too bad at the moment.Most likely another case like the wave ahead,but one of these days of these waves are going to take,it's only a matter of time
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:14 am

Yeah agree matter of time, i tkink that we should wait two weeks and things will turn earlier than predicted.. 8-)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
SAL is improving, a window of opportunity is opening:darrow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7sht.html
Shear tendency humm... pretty difficult trip down the road, shear is increasing tremendously on the Central Atlantic
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html
Shear where the wave is localized is low 10kts but after it's pure mystery high values..30 to 50kts should it allow for a increased system?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Awesome shear beginning to 30 kts after the 30W to 50 kts at 50w, bet if you want :lol: not APPARENTLY the best conditions to sustain more than a decent wave, except if your name is " Strong tropical wave in eastern caribbean" :cheesy: .
In short, for my part given what my untrained eyes have seen it's very promising interresting , there's potential for sure for the next weeks to see much more :cheesy: !
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#20 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:27 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

Looks "spinny" today.. 8-)
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