Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

I decided to make a thread for this wave now in the Eastern Caribbean because those who live in the islands can post observations about what is going on in their areas.

[cycloneye]

From the 8 AM EDT Discussion.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20
KT. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS REVEAL THAT THE
WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN. SFC PRESSURES ARE FALLING TO
NEAR 2 MB IN THIS AREA. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE
VERY WELL WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WAVE SHOULD REACH
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SATURDAY.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=


AFD from San Juan:

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST FRI JUN 20 2008

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER DETECTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
DETECTED OVER LAND. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10
MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING AND THE TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM THE
LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND.

AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS...AND A FEW PERIODS OF QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TODAY AS
THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS...AND SOME SQUALLY
WEATHER. DUE TO ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY ACROSS BOTH THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

$$

[Gustywind]

A-MA-ZING tonight and this morning, we're feeling the effects of this strong twave, numerous lightning, tstorms moderate showers and the thunder is rumbling seriously. I'm amazed my friends, it looks like a strong wave in September, thunderstorms are huge falling seriously' here. I jump out of my bed too
see what really happens. I don't know how the situation has evolved convection has increased tremendously perpahs, but for sure with have right now much more thant the water.... the scare of the strong tstorms. I monitor this system, i'm amazed given the shear map at midnight i was thinking about little showers with one weak tstorms...but sincerely the others carib residents keep watching it....
Nice regards Gustywind
I'm lucky no poweroutage for the moment so i try ti give you some info that we're experiencing the assaults of this tenacious, tremendous wave...
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... SOUFIR.GIF
Convection has fired maybe during the night bursting and bursting!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATES THAT THE
WAVE ALREADY CROSSED BARBADOS WHICH IS REPORTING SE WINDS 20 KT
AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. PRESSURES ARE FALLING 2 MB AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER THOSE ISLANDS BUT MAINLY BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND
DOMINICA. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE VERY WELL WHERE A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING
AND PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
i was sleeping , but i understand why....maybe our friend HUC is feeling the worst effects because is from Basse Terre souther than me more ,to the center of the island. I hope the very best for you HUC, here it's amazing remembering a twave in September of the past year!
In addition i have gusts ahead the thunderstorms
CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
RIDGE COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS INTERACTING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS
A RESULTS...CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED NEAR THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE AXIS...From the TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Damnnn the wave is crossing the islands with 30 to 40 kts for my untrained eyes ?or my eyes are deceiving me ?? it's an awesome scenario, imagine 10 to 15kts with this developped intensity! Given the map it has crossed with at least 35 kts of shear from west!

[Gustywind]

I can't hardly believe that were were dealing with a strong wave like that, convection has dug quicly for sure, whereas ... i have rarely see this intensity... in June . I was wondering if we were at least in August to describe the power of this system, if i told you... thunderstorms like dynamite were bombing guys!

[Gustywind]

Meteo France put us this morning in yellow alert for a moderate risk of showers and thunderstorms but i can't have the forecast seems that to access it's difficult i have nothing on my page, wait and see but what an episode near 4 am this morning...

[boca]

It looks like the wave will just miss Puerto Rico to its south.Unless it develops more of a northerly componet to it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Gustywind]

Yeah Boca you're right matter or matter to verifies that, so if it misses... it could be a good news for them, only some showers and scattered tstorms in vicinity to erase the possible drought on their area...and not the huge cloud mass with the strong convective activity

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per 6Z GFS and 0Z Canadian, nothing much happens to this wave, which moves into Central America in a couple of days. Canadian develops a healthy looking wave from something supposedly near 5ºN, 35ºW now, but I don't see anything except the ITCZ, without any obvious disturbances there.

Water vapor loop shows an upper low just North of the wave, hurling dry air and shear into it.

The dry air and shear, while deadly for tropical organization, is probably helping individual thunderstorms really go to town.

[cycloneye]

First band of rain just passed over me here.Winds were clocked by my anemometer 24 mph.I see much more bands to my east that will move into eastern PR this afternoon and evening.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1240 PM AST FRI JUN 20 2008

...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

PRZ001>004-006>010-VIZ001-002-202300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0004.080620T1640Z-080620T2300Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1240 PM AST FRI JUN 20 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AST THIS EVENING.

A STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN AT AROUND
NOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

$$

[cycloneye]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CIALES...CAGUAS...COROZAL...FLORIDA...AGUAS BUENAS...
JUNCOS...JAYUYA...GURABO...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...
MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...UTUADO...VILLALBA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA
ALTA...LAS PIEDRAS...DORADO...BARCELONETA...LUQUILLO...
NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...
JUANA DIAZ...MANATI...PONCE...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN...PENUELAS...
RIO GRANDE...TOA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 111 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED LINES OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING TOWARDS OR ACROSS THESE
AREAS. LOCAL PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE SO FAR BEEN BETWEEN
AN INCH TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING IN AND
AROUND FLORIDA AND CIALES...AND WEST BETWEEN FAJARDO...CEIBA AND
RIO GRANDE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Looks like diurnal minimum now. See if it flares tonight. This is an anomalous (potential) system for this track at this time. Could dissipate at any time.

[HURAKAN]

[ekal]

It looks like a small upper-level low might be forming just ahead of the wave axis where the old low-level circulation was. You can see it on WV imagery, just to the south of PR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

In any case, development does not look too likely at all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS tracks this across the Caribbean, into the Yucatan and then on into mainland Mexico without development.


The Canadian takes this to Central America, where it seems to join already existing vorticity in the eastern Pacific, and develops a tropical storm or depression off the Mexican coast in 6 days.


I'd guess the GFS would have a better chance of verifying...

[cycloneye]

The upper shear is on full force weakening the wave on the northern part.One band of rain with gusty winds moved rapidly thru Puerto Rico around 1:00 PM EDT.I clocked 28 mph wind at maximun in my anemometer.After that one band,nothing more.Lets see if the wave flares a little this evening to see some more effects here.

Update= I edited the title of thread to take out the word Strong.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
119 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...

PRZ001>010-012-013-VIZ001-002-240130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0005.080623T1719Z-080624T0200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
119 PM AST MON JUN 23 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND FOR ALL
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS EVENING.

A STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 10 PM AST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory