Alys Beach, FL panhandle real estate and SLOSH models

[weunice]

My wife and I were driving through Alys Beach a couple of days ago and saw Jim Cantore standing on top of a house == seriously == apparently he was there for Hurricane Preparedness Week. So this got me to thinking. Recently people have been doing shows about hurricane proof homes and all I hear about is how they can withstand the wind ... nada on the surge. Its like the hidden little secret. Anyway while we were there we stopped in a few of the homes along the 30-A coast just to see what the big fuss was about. I had a real estate agent tell me that they were protected from surge by the dunes.

Is there public access to SLOSH models for a Katrina-like storm hitting the panhandle between Destin and Panama City -- Cat 4, big storm, huge surge? I thought I read somewhere that a 30 ft. storm surge is not out of the question there.

Anyway, it seems Alys Beach might actually be somewhat elevated so if the surge doesn't make it up there it might fare OK. Still, I am not sure a lot of that real estate, no matter how wind proof, is up for surviving a 15+ foot wall of water.

[NDG]

I never heard of a 30' surge or the potential of a 30' surge along the western FL Panhandle, much deeper waters along that part of the gulfcoast for such a high surge to be ever take place, my guess is that the highest storm surge in that area experienced or ever to happen would be 10-20' at the most. So if the homes are a good 30' above sea level on top of some sand dunes, they could be OK from any storm surge, as long as the sand dunes don't come crumbling down, lol.

[weunice]

From what it looks to me 15-20 feet is a more realistic worst case in that area (from the little research I have done)

[vbhoutex]

It has been way too many years since I have been along the coast there. I do not remember there being that much elevation close to the beach areas, including the dunes. I know on both Santa Rosa Island and Okaloosa Island?(at FWB) in the unicorporated or undeveloped areas there were dunes up to 30 to 40 feet high(this area of course is to the West of where you are asking about). Also had the same scenario with bluffs along the Sound in Gulf Breeze. However, I did watch waves washing clear over those dunes during Hurricane Camille.
Anyway, I do think the bigger surge threat is on the numerous inland bays and bayous along the NW FL coast. I know during Opal the surge was 14+ feet in Chocktawhatchee Bay and during Ivan we all know what happened to the I-10 bridge.
I would think that the more realistic maximum along that portion of the coast you are talking about is probably what you stated.

[fwbbreeze]

The area of Seaside you are describing is much more elevated dune wise than further west along 30-A and US HWY 98. Those 30-40 foot dunes VB describes no longer exist. Most were reduced durind hurricane Opal (8-15 foot surge) and totally removed during Hurricane Ivan (10-15 foot surge). From Destin to Pensacola the beaches are as flat now as they come. A tital surge of 20 feet is a real possibility.

Here is an IVAN SLOSH Report I found

http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdat ... report.htm

[MGC]

Surge will flatten a dune area. Ivan destroyed the dunes on Santa Rosa Island in Gulf Islands National Seashore. There use to be big dunes there, not anymore. The road is still washed out. Sand will not stop a wave in the long run.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Basically from just east of Destin in Walton County from about Miramar Beach you still have a formidable dune line along the beach in most areas mostly due to better beach development standards. In Destin they threw up so many Condo's/Homes right along the beaches and plowed away most of the dunes. Destin is a disaster waiting to happen, you have little dune line along the beach on one side and the Choctawhatchee Bay just a few miles as a bird flies on the other side and this bay is very shallow, in places you can walk hundreds of yards out into the bay in 3-4 ft of water. Of course if an eye of a Cat 4 passed over just to the west of Destin the wave action in the Bay would be driven to the north side of the bay, but the overall water level rise in the Bay would still present many a 3-6 million dollar home a problem if the ocean didn't get there first.

[vbhoutex]

Basically from just east of Destin in Walton County from about Miramar Beach you still have a formidable dune line along the beach in most areas mostly due to better beach development standards. In Destin they threw up so many Condo's/Homes right along the beaches and plowed away most of the dunes. Destin is a disaster waiting to happen, you have little dune line along the beach on one side and the Choctawhatchee Bay just a few miles as a bird flies on the other side and this bay is very shallow, in places you can walk hundreds of yards out into the bay in 3-4 ft of water. Of course if an eye of a Cat 4 passed over just to the west of Destin the wave action in the Bay would be driven to the north side of the bay, but the overall water level rise in the Bay would still present many a 3-6 million dollar home a problem if the ocean didn't get there first.

Thanks for the clarification on that Dean4. I wasn't sure about East of Destin. I knew about to the West. And Choctawhatchee Bay is indeed a disaster in and of itself waiting to happen along with the built up area of Destin. My parents boat was in the NW part of the bay in a marina on one of the bayous during Opal and they had a 14' surge(at least that is what I was told) and they lost the boat due to another boat floating over and settling on theirs(the other boat was manned by the way!!!!), so that North side of the bay, especially places like Bluewater Bay are really in for it bad if your scenario happens.

[yzerfan]

On the plus side for the area, Choctawhatchee Bay is a relatively wide and not too high body of water when you're looking at it from the Gulf, so you don't get the bad funneling like you do with the tall skinny bays at Mobile and Pensacola.