June Without a Single Atlantic Tropical System?

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think there is a good chance June 2008 will go down in the books without a single tropical system forming. There were a couple of weak invests but none of them came close to becoming a tropical depression or greater.

Shear is screaming across the basin, African dust has made it all the way to Southern Florida and the Bahamas, and the waves have been generally on the weak side and prone to going poof at any given moment.

It wouldn't surprise me if July is equally as quiet...just your typical avg Atlantic Hurricane season so far...still waiting for mid August to arrive.

[Frank2]

Let's not forget Arthur...

[gatorcane]

Arthur was a May system IMHO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow Gator...This thread is cruisin for a brusin..LOL

[Ed Mahmoud]

June is normally a slow month, as is July.


When did the 1992 "A" storm form again?

[Squarethecircle]

Fact - Arthur existed in the month of June.

So, how rare is TWO storms in the Atlantic in June, anyway? I'd say not too common.

[Jason_B]

Real season doesn't really start till August, the small tropical storms and stuff we sometimes see in June and July usually aren't any worse than a bad afternoon thunderstorm. There are few exceptions though, 2005 being one where we had several big storms prior to August but I don't see that happening this year.

[HURAKAN]

On average, there is a storm in June every other year.

[dwg71]

IMO Arthur was a named system by today's standards, but I really dont think it would have even gotten a second look 10+ years ago. It was never over water. I think it will skew the numbers a little.

If nothing forms in June, great. 1 down 5 months to go.

For me here in SE TX, I look for August and Sept for activity. Though the other months have produced storms, if we make it to Oct 1st, I breath a huge sigh of relief.

[GCANE]

Not so fast. Something may be rolling off Africa next week. Check GFS model run. Shear is going to drop ahead of it and it looks like it associated with trop wave with a pretty large amplitude moisture plume.

[jrod]

Without any storms to pull heat out of the ocean and few clouds to cover the sun, an inactive June and July when we have the most heating can lead too hot water for the heart of the season. Just my opinion.

[hial2]

Without any storms to pull heat out of the ocean and few clouds to cover the sun, an inactive June and July when we have the most heating can lead too hot water for the heart of the season. Just my opinion.

Too hot to sustain a system or to hot water to create monster storms? Typo? Not being a wise guy, just wanting to make sure..scientists are popping new theories every day..

[HURAKAN]

Even if you have 90° waters, if the environment is not conducive, no tropical cyclone will form.

[Category 5]

June systems occur approx once every other year on average. Nothing unusual so far.

[Squarethecircle]

Without any storms to pull heat out of the ocean and few clouds to cover the sun, an inactive June and July when we have the most heating can lead too hot water for the heart of the season. Just my opinion.

Too hot to sustain a system or to hot water to create monster storms? Typo? Not being a wise guy, just wanting to make sure..scientists are popping new theories every day..

I'm pretty sure that he typo'd the "to" and made it a "too".

[OuterBanker]

Aug 15 to Oct 15 sweat weeks, all other times pretty much outliers. Here, most of activity is just after Labor Day which is good because in season evacs almost impossible.

[MGC]

Since we have already had a named system we are ahead of the curve. IMO I doubt we see another system till after July 4th....too much shear over the basin at this time.....MGC

[fci]

Yeah, a "normal" season so far.
No problem with that!

[KWT]

Well I fully expect we won't see much for a little while yet, indeed given the fact we've had a decent strength La Nina I suspect will mean that we won't see any major activity till mid-August.

As for what you said Gatorcane about the waves, I think they have actually been pretty impressive for the time of year, of course the conditions around them have stopped them but the one that developed a circulation about 7-10 days ago would have been a storm if this was August.

[Recurve]

I didn't expect an explosive start. My season projection is on the low side of above normal, or 50-50 chance of under 12 TS.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST...

Shear has been pretty consistent, and so on. I think we could make it through June easy. But so what, as you said, how long did we wait in '92?