AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
UPDATE
CIMMS SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT
SAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE EARLY FRI
MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THIS AS WELL WITH
ONE AREA LOCALLY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER AREA IS NOW SPREADING IN ACROSS PUERTO RICO
WHICH MODELS SUGGEST COULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA SOMETIME
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SAL FEATURE IS NOT
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...TRACKING ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM AFRICA. THE SAL IS PRODUCING HAZY SKIES
(LOOKS MILKY BUT NO VIS REDUCTIONS ATTM) ALONG WITH AN INVERSION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 3300 AND AROUND 4000 FT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE CAP AGAIN WILL BE
TOUGH TO BREAK...AND WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR SEA/LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE LIFT TO GET CONVECTION GOING
THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SO A LATE START TO THE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED.
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP...FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...THEY COULD BECOME STRONG DUE TO THE INSTABILITY PRESENT
ABOVE THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...H5 TEMPS HAVE WARMED 2C SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY...SO STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST/NAPLES AREA AND INTO THE
GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS
THROUGH TONIGHT...DECREASING POPS A TAD EAST COAST AND INCREASING
POPS A TAD FOR THE GREATER NAPLES AREA DUE TO THE NE MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW.
MARINE FCST ON TRACK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS FOR BISCAYNE BAY NEEDED. /GREGORIA
