Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[space_thrilla]

By far the largest one we've seen in 2008. Because of the above average water temps in the EATL and the relatively low shear enviornment we can see potentially a tropical depression form before 30-35W.

[Cryomaniac]

This post is the opinion of Cryomanaic, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise, and as such it should not be used for any purpose

It's still June, so rightly it should go poof by 35W, but I'm not going to say that that will happen, stranger things have happened at sea.

[cycloneye]

This is the wave that some models haved been latching on in recent days.Lets see what happens.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This post is the opinion of Cryomanaic, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise, and as such it should not be used for any purpose

It's still June, so rightly it should go poof by 35W, but I'm not going to say that that will happen, stranger things have happened at sea.

Gfs,CMC, in a few others disagree rather strongly as of this moment. The environment is not severe shear wise for a tropical cyclone to try to develop once it moves out over the Atlantic. I believe the main threat is the SAL should make it very hard to form a cyclone...SST's under near the cape verdes are around 78-80 degree's. But as normal it could go poof, but there was a storm in 1996 that would like to say otherwise. Not saying this has a high chance, but I won't say it won't have any because it doe's have some support.

[ronjon]

Latest SAT PIC from NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[cycloneye]

[Meso]

Yeah,I was thinking of creating a seperate thread for this earlier.. But then just posted in the other thread for the Atlantic waves.SSTs in that area have been far above normal over the past 2 months,not sure the current situation.

Sal isn't that bad and is mainly to the North of the system with moisture surrounding it..


And with the amount of moisture current on the African coast and just within it should be fairly protected

[wxman57]

SSTs are still a bit cool out in the east Atlantic. We see this situation every year in June through mid July. Big wave, GFS develops it, then it dies after a day or two over water. While upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development, check out the lower level winds east of the Caribbean. Waves passing 50W are running into accelerating flow (divergence) in the lower few thousand feet. That's why they're "poofing-out".

[NDG]

If something tries form and stays within the 12th latitude of the equator it might have a chance to survive but if it gains any more latitude than that it will definitely die in the cooler waters.
But I would say that the gfs has been very inconsistent every 12 hr run, in the timing of any development, it keeps leaving any develpment near the 120th hour, and when we get to within that time period it drops it and moves it for day 5 again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SSTs are still a bit cool out in the east Atlantic. We see this situation every year in June through mid July. Big wave, GFS develops it, then it dies after a day or two over water. While upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development, check out the lower level winds east of the Caribbean. Waves passing 50W are running into accelerating flow (divergence) in the lower few thousand feet. That's why they're "poofing-out".

That is normal, if I recall correctly, as the South American heat low is strongest in June and July, causing strong low level winds from the East in the Caribbean. This also increases relative shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The one that came of yesterday fizzled quickly. Bertha came off as an impressive looking wave (I remember watching the TWC tropical update) during the 4th of July weekend in 2006, so it isn't completely impossible, just unlikely in my unprofessional opinion.

[Frank2]

The convection moving off Africa had more of a squall-line appearance that a low pressure system, which could mean a greater chance that it will dissipate once it reaches the cooler ocean surface later today or tonight...

We'll see what happens...

P.S. In just checking the NRL photo, this appears to be already weakening, and, lots of cool air strato-cu to the west of Africa, so, anything that forms will have a very hard time. I'm not sure where spacethrilla (who posted on S2K for the first time today) is getting the SST data, but, as others have said (and the cool-air strato-cu reveals) the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic are actually continuing to run a bit below normal, as has been the case over the past two hurricane seasons...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The convection moving off Africa had more of a squall-line appearance that a low pressure system, which could mean a greater chance that it will dissipate once it reaches the cooler ocean surface later today or tonight...

We'll see what happens...

P.S. In just checking the NRL photo, this appears to be already weakening, and, lots of cool air strato-cu to the west of Africa, so, anything that forms will have a very hard time. I'm not sure where spacethrilla (who posted on S2K for the first time today) is getting the SST data, but, as others have said (and the cool-air strato-cu reveals) the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic are actually continuing to run a bit below normal, as has been the case over the past two hurricane seasons...

Joe Bastardi (I subscribe to the PPV column) states often quick developers are most likely to miss North America, and it is when waves are strong but conditions don't become favorable until closer to the Caribbean/North America that landfall becomes more likely.


That said, early July storm Bertha in 1996 did make it across...

[cycloneye]

The author of this thread may be refering to this when he talks about warm waters in East Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

The convection moving off Africa had more of a squall-line appearance that a low pressure system, which could mean a greater chance that it will dissipate once it reaches the cooler ocean surface later today or tonight...

We'll see what happens...

P.S. In just checking the NRL photo, this appears to be already weakening, and, lots of cool air strato-cu to the west of Africa, so, anything that forms will have a very hard time. I'm not sure where spacethrilla (who posted on S2K for the first time today) is getting the SST data, but, as others have said (and the cool-air strato-cu reveals) the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic are actually continuing to run a bit below normal, as has been the case over the past two hurricane seasons...

And Franck2 that's why Martinica experienced Dean!? (the SST's in the Eastern Atlantic are actually continuing to run a bit below normal, as has been the case over the past two hurricane seasons)...[/quote]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am not concerned about these waves developing in the eastern Atlantic. I am more concerned about them possibly developing once they get a little further west toward the Caribbean and the bahamas as we head into next month.

[Meso]

What? The Eastern Atlantic near the coast of Africa has been above normal for months and here are the images to show this





Nowhere is it running below normal,there are only a few areas where it's at average,most places it's above normal,especially in the Eastern Atlantic.This has been the trend for a long time. Hence the old thread titled "look at those Atlantic anomalies"

[Decomdoug]

Isn't the ITCZ still a bit south for CV systems?

[gatorcane]

Folks, it really doesn't matter what comes off Africa at this time. The shear out there is just way too strong and looks more like a winter-time setup. We are talking 50K+ shear in the MDR and strong westerlies that span the entire Atlantic basin. Check out how hostile the environment is out there at this time. Nonetheless, things should gradually become more favorable for development in 4-6 weeks.

[hurricanetrack]

The GFS, Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF all show a rather strong tropical wave moving off of Africa and in to the eastern Atlantic. What they do not consistently show is a tropical cyclone developing- at least not yet. Sea temps are running above normal in much of the region and if you believe the GFS, the tropical low would be forming well south of Dakar and Cape Verde where temps are at least 82 degrees already:



And as for upper level winds, again, if you go just by the GFS, 200mb winds look rather nice in 120 hours from Africa almost to the Windwards:



Also note the large anticyclone over the Caribbean Sea at that time too. No large cut off upper level lows running around like we saw last year during the peak of the season. Bottom line is that we will almost certainly have something rather interesting to watch. Whether or not it develops remains to be seen.