Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

[cycloneye]

I decided to make a thread about this small disturbance that clearly has a low with it.But shear ahead may be its obstacule for any development to take place,but its interesting neverless to watch it.

[KWT]

Yeah as i saids in the other thread whilst I've heard some models are lowering the shear in the short term looks to be very much present. also want to see the convection last another 12-24hrs before getting too interested in it. clear circulation with it though thats true!

[RL3AO]

Heres the wave associated with it.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD
DISPLAY A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 100NM W OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10N-13N AND BETWEEN
15N-17N.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It will hit pretty major shear in the Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Water vapor loop shows where the shear is.

[RL3AO]

Yep. Its screwed.

Better luck in the EPac or maybe Western Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

After looking at the shear maps, there is not much to go from here.

[cycloneye]

That is why I posted this now for the peeps to see it before it vanishes.

[Nimbus]

Its been moving into warmer SST's so the convection could pick up a little, but there is 50 knot shear over the Caribbean.
I think 92L is going to go poof once it hits the cooler SST's, so this area could get upgraded to depression status first. Proximity to the islands, possibility flood warnings will be needed, etc.

[KWT]

Well this thing has got to get to an invest status first Nimbus and besides from now on shear increases steadily as it heads westwards, it slowly heading towards a 50kt jet streak but with it heading westward relative shear will probably be even higher then that!

It will have to beocme a depression now IMO if it has any chance and I don't think thats going to happen.

Saying all that has a chance of being 93L if the NHC has its eye on the ball, lest us forget it has 96E, 92L and Boris to watch.

[RL3AO]

Saying all that has a chance of being 93L if the NHC has its eye on the ball, lest us forget it has 96E, 92L and Boris to watch.

Not quite sure what you are trying to say, but the NHC knows its there because its marked as a tropical wave.

[HURAKAN]

If the NHC is paying attention to this system or not, we will know in about three hours.

[NDG]

This was the tropical wave that was very impressive a few days ago with a nice mid level circulation and broad cyclonic circulation when it was SW of the CV islands, but at that time it was surrounded by a stable enviroment and quickly died down, the CMC was about the only one that was redeveloping it before reaching the windward islands back then.

[KWT]

Yeah I remember that wave you are talking about NDh, impressive that its circulation has kept going all this time. Still going to hit the shear wall pretty soon unless the shear eases soon.

[NDG]

Hmm, after looking at the Sat loop and windshear trends, this may have a chance to do something right until it reaches the islands, at least right now is in a very good UL environment, though it might be too attached to the ITCZ.

[KWT]

Indeed up till the islands it stays in the 5-15kt range regon for shear so it probably has about 36hrs to do something, maybe enough time for something, maybe even a TD but highly unlikely it will do anything else.

I expect we shall get 93L sooner rather then later if the convection can keep developing, also interesting to note that the min shoukld be on its way and yet convection is still flaring up.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is this tiny system, convection is lacking let's see if this continues to exibit something decent during the 12 -24hours..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
But the shear tendeny shows that winds will abate a bit a more near the east carib, interresting....

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Thunder44]

Chances are with all the shear in front of it, NHC won't be bothered with it. It doesn't look like it has a closed LLC, anyway, based on visible imagery.

[KWT]

Indeed gustywind shear is lowering in the E.car but it still appear that it will be pretty hefty have to admit even if it does reduce a little bit.

Thuder, I suspect it does have a closed circulation looking at the loops, not sure at what level though.