I got that feeling. Like we're in for a long and hard season

[Duddy]

The beginning of this season is starting to remind me of 2005.

The reason it reminds me of 2005 is because the main thing I remember about the storms then were that they always looked EXTREMELY good as invests and depressions. Then they would always go through the RI (Rapid Intensification).

There is absolutely no science or validity to this post. Just felt like sharing my feelings with everyone.

[RL3AO]

Two differences between July 2005 and July 2008

In July 2005, the waters in the Caribbean and GOM were much warmer then they are now.

In July 2005, there wasn't a huge TUTT causing 40kts of shear across the entire Caribbean.

[Duddy]

Two differences between July 2005 and July 2008

In July 2005, the waters in the Caribbean and GOM were much warmer then they are now.

In July 2005, there wasn't a huge TUTT causing 40kts of shear across the entire Caribbean.

No science! Science was created by the devil! Only gut feelings count in this thread!


LOL, I'm kidding of course.

[Jason_B]

I kinda agree, Duddy. The wave train has really been going the past few weeks, and even if 92L and 93L don't do anything it's still impressive that things are trying to get going this early on in the season. Once these unfavorable conditions relax in August and September I think we're in for a real firework show. I don't know about another 2005, but I really doubt we'll see a repeat of the past two seasons. Maybe this year will be along the lines of 2004.

[Frank2]

RL3AO is correct - similar to the many who have compared the 1996 Bertha to TD2, but, both are very different, as is each season - each season is unique unto itself...

[KWT]

Indeed Frank your right each season is different. The fact we have got a cape Verde wave become a TD and nearly a TS that far east this early does suggest the chance of a busy cape verde season at least. We shall see but I think the above normal temps in eastern Atlantic has really helped TD2 get going.

[Frank2]

True that the SST's are warmer near the African coast, but, they are a bit below normal towards the Caribbean, and, with all of the shear so far this season (which is above and beyond the normal early season shear), it'll be interesting to see - perhaps we'll get many systems like TD2 that are well organized, but, weaken as they approach the lower SST's and shear...

Have a good afternoon over there,

Frank

[jinftl]

or maybe we will get systems that remain weak as they cross the atlantic....keeping them on a more westerly course, developing when they get into the western caribbean or gulf....that would not be a good turn scenario....we will just have to see what what patterns emerge in the coming weeks/months

SSTs are warm enough to support development throughout the Caribbean..not sure if a sea temp of 83 vs. 84 or 85 is going to weaken systems

Overall basin is warmer than normal....areas shaded light blue are close to normal according to color key

True that the SST's are warmer near the African coast, but, they are a bit below normal towards the Caribbean, and, with all of the shear so far this season (which is above and beyond the normal early season shear), it'll be interesting to see - perhaps we'll get many systems like TD2 that are well organized, but, weaken as they approach the lower SST's and shear...

Have a good afternoon over there,

Frank

[KWT]

Its only as long as that TUTT lasts, it quite normal for there to be high shear in the Caribbean to be fair Frank in July, indeed there has probably been more storms FORM in the Caribbean in June then July though I can't say that for certain.

The simple fact is we've had 2 cyclones so far this season, above and beyond where we should be on average and a VERY easterly and early Cape Verde system, indeed it has formed exceptionally east for the time of year.

I think we've got far more to argue for a active season then we haven't but of course hopefully active also means plenty of recurves but I've got a bad feeling one will likely slip the net like many other cape verde seasons like 1989, 1999 and in the case of 1998 and 1996 a few!

[Frank2]

KWT,

True, though it's interesting to note that the 1996 "Bertha No. 1" season included many recurves (though it was busy for the US EC)...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1996 ... on_map.png

With the consistent EC troughs this past Winter and Spring (actually, it's been a consistent pattern off and on for the past several years), and, the retrograding subtropical high at this time (due to the troughs), it's possible that this will be similar to 1996, but, again, each season is unique...

Frank

[KWT]

Agreed Frank though I think its just fluke luck that both this year and 1996 had Bertha as a early July Cape Verde storm, track will be very different.

Main development region looks to be close to average in terms of temps (maybe a little below just to the east of the Caribbean but that zone normally is warm enough already for tropical systems so it doesn't matter quite so much.

The region that really catches my eye is the subtropics which is realy above normal throughout, if we do get lots of recurves may seem the systems get stronger and remain stronger then normal, esp if the shear set-up plays ball.

Hopefully Frank the set-up has storms recurving just to the east of the USA, should give the storm freaks some fun but keeps those beasts out to sea.

[Jason_B]

True that the SST's are warmer near the African coast, but, they are a bit below normal towards the Caribbean, and, with all of the shear so far this season (which is above and beyond the normal early season shear), it'll be interesting to see - perhaps we'll get many systems like TD2 that are well organized, but, weaken as they approach the lower SST's and shear...

Have a good afternoon over there,

Frank

Is it really that bad so far this season? I thought it was normal for shear to dominate much of the Caribbean in June/July.

[KWT]

Yeah I always thought that as well Jason and the Caribbean is just one part of the ocean, indeed with an early CV storm I think alot of the strong storms this season are going to come from this area of the world this hurricane season.

[Stormcenter]

The beginning of this season is starting to remind me of 2005.

The reason it reminds me of 2005 is because the main thing I remember about the storms then were that they always looked EXTREMELY good as invests and depressions. Then they would always go through the RI (Rapid Intensification).

There is absolutely no science or validity to this post. Just felt like sharing my feelings with everyone.

Where are the rapid intensifications so far in 2008? It's very very early in the season to come any type of conclusion. It's just like saying the season is a dud already.

[HURAKAN]

Every season is a different animal. 2004 and 2005 were very destructive and they were very different at the same time. Comparing doesn't make sense most of the time.

[KWT]

To be fair Stormcenter we did see Bertha go from a invest to a TS in the space of about 9hrs which is pretty snapy. As Hurakan says every single season is different, I don't think we will get massivly explosive developments too often this season but more in the way of long trackers. We will see!

[HURAKAN]

2005 was weird and 2008 is normal. Psychological problem resolved!!!

[KWT]

Well we've already seen one record fall this hurricane season with Bertha, furtherest east forming storm in July. Now the most normal season in recent seasons has to be 2006 surely!

[Eyewall]

I have an idea, lets just wait and see what happens. Theres NO way to tell what this season is going to bring at this time.

[jinftl]

I think that there are those here who have already decided this season is a dud....that is inspite of all expert predictions that it will be most likely a fairly active season, inspite of the fact that we had the first storm on May 31, and in spite of the fact that we quite possibly just saw one of (if not the most) eastern forming Cape Verde storm for such an early date (July 3) ever.

And there are probably those who think the opposite..that we are on tap for another 2005.

Reality will probably fall somewhere between a dud season and 2005!!!