Bertha's ACE=It reached 28

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I feel the "ace" is a better way to tell how seasons are. Why because you can have many a weak tropical storms to make a season like 2002 or you can have a impressive season like 2001,2003,2004 that don't have that many more storms in not tell much difference.

The ace is the energy released from a storm more or less.

Bertha so far has 3.32 Ace.

I say 7.5 for Bertha...

[Chacor]

Just using the NHC's forecast here, this is what we get in 5 days (assuming here no change in intensity until a forecast point except for +06H, thanks to the ICAO forecast which says 70 kts in 6 hours):

Code: Select all

Current   65    3.3150
+06H      70       .49
+12H      70       .49
+18H      75     .5625
+24H      75     .5625
+30H      75     .5625
+36H      80       .64
+42H      80       .64
+48H      80       .64
+54H      80       .64
+60H      80       .64
+66H      80       .64
+72H      75     .5625
+78H      75     .5625
+84H      75     .5625
+90H      75     .5625
+96H      70       .49
+102H     70       .49
+108H     70       .49
+114H     70       .49
+120H     70       .49

Total:         14.5225

So, in 120 hours with the storm still a 70-kt hurricane, using the current NHC forecast, it would already have an ACE of 14.52. Assuming it's already spinning down slowly by then and goes extratropical shortly after, I'm going to go for an ACE of 17.

[Chacor]

With it up to 80 kts, the ACE will now probably be higher than either of us predicted.

[cycloneye]

As of the 11 AM EDT Advisory=4.3225 for the season,Bertha at 3.9550.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 3.9550
Total  4.3225


[senorpepr]

As of the 11 AM EDT Advisory=4.3225 for the season,Bertha at 3.9550.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 3.9550
Total  4.3225


Those numbers are as of the 5 am AST Advisory.

To include the 11 AM AST Advisory, Bertha is 4.0025 (1.0628 HDP) and 4.3700 for the season.

[KWT]

I think Bertha is easily going to get into double figures but there is uncertainty with how shear may interace when it gets closer to Bermuda. for now I will call 16 but it may be higher or lower its too early to tell right now.

[brunota2003]

Hmm...I say 28

[jrod]

How is ACE calculated?

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[Chacor]

How is ACE calculated?

In plain terms, wind speed in kts at full advisory squared, divided by 10000.

:. a 35 kt advisory = 35 x 35 = 1225; 1225/10000 = 0.1225

[cycloneye]

ACE so far for Bertha.

02L.Bertha
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)

1 3 July 5 am EDT 30 0

2 3 July 11 am EDT 35 0.1225

3 3 July 5 pm EDT 35 0.1225

4 3 July 11 pm EDT 40 0.1600

5 4 July 5 am EDT 40 0.1600

6 4 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

7 4 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025

8 4 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025

9 5 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025

10 5 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

11 5 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025

12 5 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025

13 6 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025

14 6 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

15 6 July 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500

16 6 July 11 pm EDT 55 0.3025

17 7 July 5 am EDT 65 0.4225

18 7 July 11 am EDT 80 0.6400

19 7 July 5 pm EDT 100 1.0000

20 7 July 11 pm EDT 105 1.1025

Total 6.0575

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[Ad Novoxium]

There's life, but the patient isn't long for the basin. I think the hurricane will cross into double digits, but final ACE?

19

[senorpepr]

ACE so far for Bertha.

02L.Bertha
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)

1 3 July 5 am EDT 30 0

2 3 July 11 am EDT 35 0.1225

3 3 July 5 pm EDT 35 0.1225

4 3 July 11 pm EDT 40 0.1600

5 4 July 5 am EDT 40 0.1600

6 4 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

7 4 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025

8 4 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025

9 5 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025

10 5 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

11 5 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025

12 5 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025

13 6 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025

14 6 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025

15 6 July 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500

16 6 July 11 pm EDT 55 0.3025

17 7 July 5 am EDT 65 0.4225

18 7 July 11 am EDT 80 0.6400

19 7 July 5 pm EDT 100 1.0000

20 7 July 11 pm EDT 105 1.1025

Total 6.0575

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

Somebody over at Wikipedia is struggling with math. The total ACE, thus far, is 6.1050. I fixed the page.

[RL3AO]

I added it up. Its right. Not sure where the difference is.

[senorpepr]

I added it up. Its right. Not sure where the difference is.

Huh? Try it again. It's 6.1050.

[RL3AO]

I see my mistake. I counted the .2500 as the 10th .2025.

[senorpepr]

I see my mistake. I counted the .2500 as the 10th .2025.

That explains the difference! I must have added those numbers manually, plus checked my excel spreadsheet, a dozen times looking for how my number was off.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see that Bertha may have been a 115kt at one point and if thats the case then we should expect the best track ACE may be a touch higher.

[cycloneye]

Mike (senorpepr),then Wiki is not on the ball with this as you said,someone there is not doing the best in math.But I take it that if there is a difference between your stats and wiki they are minor right?

[senorpepr]

Mike (senorpepr),then Wiki is not on the ball with this as you said,someone there is not doing the best in math.But I take it that if there is a difference between your stats and wiki they are minor right?

Frequently, the stats aren't updated at advisory time. (I noticed NURAKAN posted this morning--a couple hours after the 5am advisory--stats from Wiki from last night.)

Additionally, several times I've found math mistakes.

Personally, I keep a spreadsheet of my own that reduces math errors.