SE Coast

[Aric Dunn]

Well i figured i would add yet another thread since it is starting seem more plausible now that we may see a low form off the SE coast somewhere along the boundary that extends from the eastern gulf up to NC. also there is some support for this scenario from a few models. so things are really getting interesting now..

so there could be some sort of development really anywhere along the boundary,

latest gfs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

so go ahead post all the other models .. and starting tomorrow from the looks of it we should see some signs of this beginning to take place if its going to that is..

[RL3AO]

Anyone have that AFD or HPC (forgot what it was) discussion that mentioned this system?

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have that AFD or HPC (forgot what it was) discussion that mentioned this system?

I read it somewhere as well.. but i noticed the boundary dropping Se with what looked to be some signs or a low forming..

[RL3AO]

I was way off. It was from the Upton, NY AFD.

THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
A POSSIBLE WARM CORE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE (GFS) HAS THE LOW WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING...WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS (NAM/ECMWF) HAVE THE LOW WEAKENING AND GETTING
CAUGHT UP IN A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS THE LOW...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT BRING
THE SYSTEM UP THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS TIMING OF THE FRONT. FOR
NOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COULD IMPACT WHAT...IF ANY OCCURS WITH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. EITHER WAY...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml

The Gfs has been showing this for a few days...It kind of reminds me of a cyclone that formed off the east coast in 2006, but anyways as long as Bertha is close, I don't expect more then a weak depression or storm because of the shear.

Worth watching.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

06z gfs shows the area of "low pressure" off the east coast still.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml

[Thunder44]

Yeah, most of the models have been showing for some time now. Time is against it though, as it will probably only have a day or two to develop into TC, before it gets picked up or absorbed by the cold front.

[Thunder44]

The low has actually already developed off NC coast, along an old frontal boundary according to HPC early morning surface analysis. The 6z GFS initalized it well:



Infrared satellite image, shows some convection, but it looks sheared. This might turn out to be a hybrid system:

[Thunder44]

Just noticed this thread! Can you mods combine this thread with the other one on the "East Coast Low"

[cycloneye]

Matts thread came later so I merged to Arics one.

[deltadog03]

I am a bit confused here....Is this what the euro tries to back up into the SE> Or is it something that comes from the NE gom?

[Thunder44]

I am a bit confused here....Is this what the euro tries to back up into the SE> Or is it something that comes from the NE gom?

I'm talking about the low currently off the Carolina Coast.

[Thunder44]

Radar out of the NC, shows some twisting in rain bands, at least above the surface:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Latest HPC Surface Analysis, 1012mb Low off the NC coast. The low is still along a frontal boundary and the surface pressures are rising. So I don't expect this to develop into anything tropical today. But tomorrow might be a different story:

[deltadog03]

sorry thunder...i mean, what do the models do with this system?

[HURAKAN]

The lowest pressure being reported by the ships and buoys in the area is 1015 mb.

[Thunder44]

The lowest pressure being reported by the ships and buoys in the area is 1015 mb.

They are not in the presumed center, so the pressure is probably being estimated.

[cpdaman]

intresting little bugger noticed this on the NW visible. not really moving much and near gulf stream so ...more action perhaps.

[Thunder44]

sorry thunder...i mean, what do the models do with this system?

Most of them have it getting picked up or absorbed by the cold front coming into the east coast by Monday. So it may not have much time to develop, but we will see.

[cpdaman]

since this is warm core you would think this would be an invest yes?