On our Way to 6+ Majors this year?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Think about it...Its a little bold but it looks probable to me..We have Bertha as one. Im going out on a limb and going to say the sky is the limit for our Storm this week(Probable Christobal) So if we have our average of 3 majors between mid aug to late sept and maybe on in mid oct like ususal...6 Majors looks to be on the Horizon...

What do you think?

[KWT]

Its certainly possible, we did it in 1996 which had an early major, indeed I think the average out of all the years that had early cape verde storms was 5 major hurricanes so that isn't far off, we will have to wait and see but its quite possible we could have 5-6 majors this season, its not all that bold if we have an active Cape Verde season this year.

[Cryomaniac]

In before "It's not 2005".

I think it's possible, just about.

[KWT]

6 majors though isn't totally impossible, really it would only require 5 majors in the peak months of the season which is certainly possible I think.

[HURAKAN]

If what we have seen in July with the intensity of the tropical waves continues into the peak of the season, then 6+ major hurricanes is possible.

[KWT]

Yep besides 1996 managed 6 majors and got early help from Bertha so who knows depends on how favorable the heart of the season turns out to be.

Personally I think 4-5 is more likely but even 6-7 isn't out of the question.

[dixiebreeze]

Think about it...Its a little bold but it looks probable to me..We have Bertha as one. Im going out on a limb and going to say the sky is the limit for our Storm this week(Probable Christobal) So if we have our average of 3 majors between mid aug to late sept and maybe on in mid oct like ususal...6 Majors looks to be on the Horizon...

What do you think?

Not "too bold" at all, given the early conditions in the Atlantic basin. I actually remember posting in early May that it looks like it might be a season of "long runners."

[KWT]

Well I think a lot of people have mentioned the fact that this looks like being a season with quite a few long running systems from the cape verde region, maybe like a mix of 1996, 1998 and 1999. Who knows we have to wait and see what occurs but I think we will get more good looking systems.

Also the favorable phase of the MJO should come back again right at the heart of the season, could see the train really ramp up at that time.

[Category 5]

Wake me up if we get to 5.

[KWT]

Well really only have to get 4 in the heart of the season to reach 5 majors, so that is quite do-able if we get a decent Cape Verde season.

[Category 5]

Well really only have to get 4 in the heart of the season to reach 5 majors, so that is quite do-able if we get a decent Cape Verde season.

That's the only way it would happen IMO.

[Stormcenter]

Think about it...Its a little bold but it looks probable to me..We have Bertha as one. Im going out on a limb and going to say the sky is the limit for our Storm this week(Probable Christobal) So if we have our average of 3 majors between mid aug to late sept and maybe on in mid oct like ususal...6 Majors looks to be on the Horizon...

What do you think?

I guess anything is possible but probably as likely as gasoline going below $3 a gallon
anytime soon...unlikely.

[KWT]

We will see, 6 maybe too high but its certainly possible, 5 IMO is looking pretty reasonable to me, 4 in the heart to the season is most do-able in an above average season.

[Jason_B]

6 may be a stretch but then again we just had a cat 3 blossom out of nowhere in early July, so who knows what we'll see in September/October. I think 5 is a safe bet for now.

[KWT]

The only thing that could stop 5-6 majors IMO would be a sudden emergence of El nino type conditions in the Atmosphere. a similar thing happened in 2004 and 2006 (note that doesn't mean El Nino just atmospheric conditions like that) though with 2004 the damage was already done...

Also Bertha has really raised the chances of a hyperactive year in regard to the ACE.

[Mecklenburg]

probably we could tie 1999

[Mecklenburg]

probably not

[johngaltfla]

Unfortunately, my predictions for this year at S2K:

152-johngaltfla=21/11/5

Suddenly do not look so crazy. And from a FL perspective, I really wish I was way off again....

[Jim Hughes]

Think about it...Its a little bold but it looks probable to me..We have Bertha as one. Im going out on a limb and going to say the sky is the limit for our Storm this week(Probable Christobal) So if we have our average of 3 majors between mid aug to late sept and maybe on in mid oct like ususal...6 Majors looks to be on the Horizon...

What do you think?

Big Brown had a better chance of winning the Triple Crown.

[Category 5]

here is my prediction for the 2008 season

http://bp3.blogger.com/_hrWY1QnVAkA/SIL ... ricane.PNG

There are exactly 14,524 things wrong with this but I'll only name three.

1. You've gone back in time and changed the tracks of previous storms

2. Predicting storms that aren't even thoughts yet is ludicrous.

3. 3 doomsday storms in one season?

Could you please provide basis for this prediction?