Strong Tropical Wave At 12N, 39W: GFS Predicts A Cyclone

[weatherman21]

GOES Infrared Satellite At 22:45Z On 7/13/08


I have been following the GFS Model Runs over the past couple days and the recent model runs are being consistant with a strong tropical wave in the vicinity of the present large area of convection at 12N, 39W to develop a surface low pressure center and become a future cyclone which will travel wnw through the Carribbean Sea over the next week.
It will be interesting to see whether the GFS Model is as precise with this one as the model was with Hurricane Bertha when the system emerged offshore the coast of Africa.

[kpost]

its invest 94L

"STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-41W. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 34W-40W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS."

[weatherman21]

GFS Model: 7/21/08; Precipitable Water at Entire Atmosphere & Surface Winds


GFS Model: 7/23/08; GeoHeight with 300MB Jet and Surface Pressure

You can see in the above snapshot of the GFS Model where the surface pressure contours outline the cyclone not far offshore the SE CONUS.
The GFS is predicting an upper-layer trough to swing southward into the NE CONUS by the end of the forecast period which the GFS detects will allow the cyclone to turn northward at the end of the foreacast period. The GFS model predicts the cyclone to enter the northern Carribbean Sea by the end of the forecast period.
Though the GFS has been consistant with a developing tropical cyclone this week, the model is predicting a track further westward with each model run and the GFS now predicts the system to pass halfway between Bermuda and coastal North Carolina. The GFS has been inconsistant with which way the possible cyclone will travel.

[RL3AO]

Please use the 94L thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101807