Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

JoeB has an alert for possible TC development off Florida Panhandle, that would move into Panhandle, and probably not become too much of a system.


I have no opinion, one way or the other, but there are thunderstorms offshore

Long Range Radar Loop

Tie-dyed color satellite loop.

[NDG]

The euro has been off and on more on than off developing a ML circulation off of the Tampa area with a surface reflection. Surface pressures have been falling for the last couple of days with an UL ridge moving over head the area, we will see if anything materializes over the very warm northern gulf waters.

[KWT]

Yeah the Euro has been toying with bringing in a region of weak low pressure towards the panhandle recently. IMO it probably won't have the time to do anything unless it starts organising right now.

[x-y-no]

I don't buy it. The way the ULL to the east and the broad trough to the north are interacting, there's no prospect for development there.

[kpost]

My forecast for today still sucks.

[ronjon]

Convection brewing in the eastern GOM west of TPA. From the NWS local office in Ruskin:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW MOVING AWAY FROM FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...BEING THE MOST PESSIMISTIC IN KEEPING A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE NATURE COAST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS AND LEAVE OUR SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND WAIT TO SEE IF GFS/DGEX COME MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF
BEFORE RAISING POPS.

[TexWx]

Looks as if those clouds want to start turning, south of the Alabama/Miss. line.

[fwbbreeze]

just dont see it....yet

[Brent]

It has more convection than 94L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, the WRF isn't highly thought of as a tropical forecast model, but, hey, look

Tropical Depression moving into Florida Panhandle?

[ronjon]

looks to be a weak low level circulation near 26N-84W this morning. Shear has really slacked off over the eastern GOM. Have to watch this convection today for signs of development since the Euro has been rather insistent on development here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

looks to be a weak low level circulation near 26N-84W this morning. Shear has really slacked off over the eastern GOM. Have to watch this convection today for signs of development since the Euro has been rather insistent on development here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I don't see a circulation around that area and it's harder find a LLC looking from the IR-4 loop.

[NDG]

There is a broad Low pressure center near Apalachee Bay this morning, if it would move a little more offshore maybe a better chance of development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see something spin up out here. However, if it does, then it will probably not have much time to get stronger than a depression or weak storm, IMO. Still could be interesting though, especially if it meant I could get a few outer rain bands here in Orlando.

As for the latest model support...

The 6z GFS is trying to show some kind of closed low feature west of Florida forming within the next day or two...

24 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

30 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

36 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

42 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

The model wants to hover this low just offshore the west coast through hour 60, before finally lifting it northward toward the eastern panhandle and having it make landfall on July 17th...

60 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

The NOGAPS, CMC and UKMET also seem to want to form some kind of weak low west of Florida...

00z NOGAPS = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

06z UKMET = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00z CMC = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Overall, this area actually has more model support for possible development than 94L does right now. lol.

[NDG]

And closer to home to at least make it more interesting,

We should see this area of elongated low pressure tighten up, but the question is where? It will make a big difference if it will be over the open waters of NE GOM, near the coast or just inland over FL. UL divergence will start moving in later on tonight and tomorrow so convection should really start firing up by then.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From this morning's Melbourne AFD...

WED...LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST PATTERN WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION VICINITY OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CUTTING OFF VICINITY OF MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. WITH 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY NOT FAVOR ANY
PARTICULAR TIME OF THE DAY. MOS POPS CONTINUE AT 70 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST VALUES UPWARD
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.

Yeah NDG, it looks like there will definitely be something at the surface, but the question is where? The further offshore it forms, the better the chances of it becoming a classified tropical system. Right now it looks like the broad area of low pressure is currently located SW of Apalachee Bay as you pointed out earlier. You can clearly see a broad spin on radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[ronjon]

First VIS SAT still shows a CC spin in the low clouds near 26N-84W - possibly a weak LLC forming or maybe the MLC from yesterday. There still is 10-20 kts of northernly shear over the system so if it does develop it should be slow. Pressures from nearby buoys are low - 29.88. Definitely something to watch the next 24-48 hrs, especially with all the model support.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[NDG]

First VIS SAT still shows a CC spin in the low clouds near 26N-84W - possibly a weak LLC forming or maybe the MLC from yesterday. There still is 10-20 kts of northernly shear over the system so if it does develop it should be slow. Pressures from nearby buoys are low - 29.88. Definitely something to watch the next 24-48 hrs, especially with all the model support.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

I don't see what you are referring to, but if it is it must be at the mid levels, because at the surface there is nothing but westerly winds.

[caneman]

Man oh man did it pour here (Indian Rocks Beach/CLearwater area)last night. Must have been about 3 inches within an hour. It has rained the last several days like I've not seen before. Sometimes when you've been around developing tropical systems long enough you just get a feel when something tropical is developing without the satellites, buoys, etc...

[ronjon]

EWG & NDG, the RAD does seem to show a rotation in the NE GOM - wonder if its aloft or at the surface? The 06Z NAM shows broad low pressure eventually tightening that moves N-NW into the western panhandle in 72 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml