During the lull...

[Frank2]

...considering Bertha is finally moving away towards the North Atlantic, and, 94L is, well, not looking as well-organized as yesterday, I wanted to take a minute to mention an interesting discussion last evening between TWC's Dr. Steve Lyons and OCM Jim Cantore, concerning the future of 94L:

Jim: What do you think will happen with this system?

Steve: Jim, I've always said that it's always better not to make a forecast before one needs to be made, though I'd say that it has a better chance of crossing into Central America...

Steve: You know what happens when the oil speculators start to wonder...

Jim: Yes...

Steve: In a few days, gasoline will cost even more...

Jim: [Smiling] Yes, thanks, Dr. Lyons, for this update...

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks about the consequences of making off-the-cuff predictions, er, forecasts!!! In today's world, that can be very costly (JB take note)...

Frank

[oyster_reef]

I wonder what gas will do if the blob in the gulf gets orginized?
This could be a costly summer for consumers the way speculators are rallying.

[Frank2]

I agree - I can't understand why there isn't some sort of limit to speculator trading, similar to how the stock market used to have holds placed on trading for one hour following the 1987 crash, to allow for a "cooling off period"...

It really bothers me that some jughead in bunny slippers can sit at his or her computer and cause so much trouble and hardship for everyone else - something has to be done to keep these people from doing this - perhaps reinstating very high broker fees...

When I worked on Wall Street (I worked in graphic arts for a European company), this never happened, since "playing the market" was only for the conservative investor - not any longer...

[oyster_reef]

I heard one suggestion... if you purchase futures on oil... you have to take delivery of said oil.
How many of these guys can afford to accept and store 100-10,000 barrels?

[Frank2]

That's a good 'un - similar to the Andy Griffith Show, when Barney acted like a big shot investor, and, ended up taking delivery of 1,000 bottles of "Dr. Briskin's Homeopathic Remedy"!

You have a good point...

[Thunder44]

...considering Bertha is finally moving away towards the North Atlantic, and, 94L is, well, not looking as well-organized as yesterday, I wanted to take a minute to mention an interesting discussion last evening between TWC's Dr. Steve Lyons and OCM Jim Cantore, concerning the future of 94L:

Jim: What do you think will happen with this system?

Steve: Jim, I've always said that it's always better not to make a forecast before one needs to be made, though I'd say that it has a better chance of crossing into Central America...

Steve: You know what happens when the oil speculators start to wonder...

Jim: Yes...

Steve: In a few days, gasoline will cost even more...

Jim: [Smiling] Yes, thanks, Dr. Lyons, for this update...

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks about the consequences of making off-the-cuff predictions, er, forecasts!!! In today's world, that can be very costly (JB take note)...

Frank

As long these systems don't get played down, for this sole purpose, it's alright.

But even without the hurricane threat, gas prices are going to probably rise anyway, so all this extra caution, you want us all to have, may all just be moot.

[NDG]

Hurricane or no Hurricane heading into the GOM this hurricane season the price of crude is heading towards $200 anyway.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think "oil speculators" get a bad rap. Everyone likes a bogeyman. Maybe, just maybe, with demand growing faster than supply, prices really are just rising. Especially since the dollar is also weakening.


Oil is like any other traded commodity. One person has it to sell, another to buy. While, I'm sure, there are the equivalent of stock day traders, doing quick buys then sells to try to catch a small profit, most of the buyers are trying to ensure an adequate supply. Markets can get an element of hysteria, especially when certain oil producing regions are subject to either natural disaster or political instability, and some people are making healthy profits, but I don't really think there is an evil cabal of oil speculators lighting cigars with hundred dollar bills and smirking.


If Exxon and the Western oil companies could control prices, oil wouldn't have hit $10 a barrel a decade ago. Oil prices are essentially set by how much oil state owned oil companies in the Middle East and South America choose to produce. Saudi Arabia's spare capacity is less than it used to be, and it isn't in their interest to increase production to lower prices. Saudi Arabia got burned in 1998 when they ramped up production quickly, and didn't cut it quickly enough when the world economy, and hence demand, slowed. Venezuela's production has been dropping ever since a Marxist dictator took over, seized the properties of the Western companies there, and replaced the technical experts at PDVSA, once perhaps the most technically adept of the NOCs, with political flunkies.


Every few years some idiot will claim opening more land for drilling won't ease prices immediately, which is true, but increasing drilling will hold prices down a few years in the future. In a few years, when ANWR or the blocked Rocky Mountain oil shales could have been on production but aren't, during the next high price crisis, they will be saying the same thing.

The same people will say cripple the US economy to stop the possible affects of global warming, when the effects won't be seen for decades, if ever, but would refuse to drill for oil, saying prices won't respond for a couple of years.

[Frank2]

Thunder,

Well, I've noticed that S2K admin has made recent changes to make sure everyone sees the disclaimer, so, good to know that they realize a popular site such as this needs to have some safeguards to ensure that no one uses it to his or her personal gain...

Thanks

P.S. Sorry for generating an off-topic admin - I just wanted to mention the interesting exchange heard on TWC last evening concerning the future (or non-future) of 94L...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think 94L, which I thought was about a 75% lock to develop yesterday, will cross the Caribbean as an open wave.


Just my unofficial opinion.


There might be a weak system East of the oil fields in the Gulf in the next two or three days, but it'll develop quickly, and move inland just as quickly, and just bring beneficial rain.


Again, in my unofficial opinion. No affect on the oil fields.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who cares...Its nothing anyone on the board can control...its going to go to 5.00 per gal if there is a storm or not...Does it mean we still won't go to work daily? NO. Does it mean we won't post on Storm2k anymore? I didnt think so...Please let this be the last friggin oil thread I see this year...I'm sick of them,..